On the US side, recession fears partially reduced the demand for the US dollar (the natural way I wanted it to fall) and the declines in DXY accelerated. Following this, serious valuations were seen in the euro, gold, sterling, JPY, and serious declines were seen in the indexes. The sell dollar, buy whatever you find strategy has been continuing since 2023. Although DXY is susceptible to reaction up to 105, the main direction is 100 and below. If Mr. Trump speaks less, the market will recover and everything will continue to rally where it left off.
When the 20400 and 20000 levels were broken in Nasdaq, we relaxed to 19100, fear peaked in the market and VIX reached 29. Actually, I do not expect a recession, the reason is that inflation is falling, it is important for the FED to react here. Since the FED did not react in time, the market took everything down between interest rates, Trump, Qt recession. They changed the rules of the game again. I was expecting this decline towards the summer months, they brought it in the first quarter. That's why I think there will be recoveries. Technically, for us to enter a clear bear season, the index should show a 20% decline and stay below those levels. I think there will be a reaction this week and we will technically test the 20400 - 20700 range. If we cannot produce a reaction this week, other problems will come to the fore in the market and they may reduce the Nasdaq side to 18600 and 18000 levels. If we are above 18000 and 18600 levels, there is no problem in the medium term, the 25000 and 27000 targets remain valid.
The horizontal rising channel continues in Dax, it did not join the hangover on the US side. Technically, if we are above 21600, the price will open up to 25000.
We finally reached the 3000 level in ounce gold, those who expected a decrease are sad again.
The next target is 3100, after that it requires extra analysis.
We finally saw the 34 figures in ounce silver. Technically, the movement says that it can go to the 37 - 40 range with momentum by the end of this month. There is no change in the medium-term target, 50+ continues. Unless $25 is broken, every decline is a buy opportunity.
In ounce platinum, we have technically approached the 1060 region that has not been passed for 5 years. That level is where auto orders are located. The breakout can quickly take the price to the 1300 - 1500 band. Short support is $900.
The main support in Brent oil has been broken, if we do not see a rapid recovery, sales will start to harden. Also, Opec meetings are extremely volatile, be careful about them. With 2 - 3 day candles, there may be sharp movements of $7 - $10 down or up.
Be careful, the main direction is down but they can buy $10 up and down.
S&P 500 is still in the positive zone in the long term technically. There is no change in the main trend. I think it will go to the 7200 - 7500 band after a while of horizontality. I need to see prices below the 5200 - 5100 level for my opinion to change.
In Bitcoin, the fear of recession on the US side first brought sales to the riskiest asset groups. Technically, there is still no clear reversal signal. Horizontal downward fluctuation will continue without passing the 92000 level. For extra positivity, the FED should make a statement that QT is ending. Then the riskiest assets will be the ones that rise the fastest. Technically, the 77000 - 73000 range is support, the main support is in the 68000 region. This week, with the positivity on the US side, a test of 92000 can be seen, that is the decision medium.
They officially made the worst-case scenario on Ethereum. The technical outlook is still negative. Yes, we will go up in the medium term, but where will the bottom be, 1700 - 1500 - 1300 - 1000? Unfortunately, I cannot see this clearly, the channel is very wide. The bottoms were crushed more and more. If these are the levels that will be the bottom, those who collect from here should write themselves on the board as new millionaires. The medium-term target price expectation is 10000 dollars. Make a transaction without ignoring the possibility of the current price being 1900 - 1000.
In Usd - Jpy, the fearful decrease in US interest rates was beneficial to the JPY side. As long as the current rise remains below 156, it is a sale up to 140 - 135.
In Eur - Usd, we can technically talk about the 1.11 level after minor relaxations. Roughly, our band seems to be clear, sell 1.12 - 1.13, collect 1.02 - 1.03, of course, provided that you do not be stubborn. If DXY loosens up extra, Eur - Usd could go to the 1.20 - 1.30 range incredibly. Every impossible possibility can happen. There is a top to the top and a bottom to the bottom.
The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.
