Geopolitical risks suddenly, especially the executives of such high-level financial institutions like the CEO of JP Morgan have foreseen with great foresight that geopolitical risks would increase for a while and suddenly there was Iran-Israel tension. Israel is already in a corruption investigation right now in order to dominate the market as much as possible before the American elections and because America knows that presidential candidates will remain silent due to Jewish votes and Netanyahu can stay in office. He needs to escalate the conflict. He is constantly in authoritarian leadership mode. Therefore, first Gaza and now Lebanon continue with such an expanding or border-expanding policy. You can foresee some things from the price, it was obvious that something would happen but it did not have much effect on the American stock markets. In fact, interestingly that day, Bloomberg International suddenly turned into CNN International. In other words, the finance channel suddenly turned into a war channel. The news came when the American markets opened. After that, American authorities also added fuel to the fire. There was a sharp sell-off but I was saying there would be no problem as long as it did not fall below support. As if the goods were collected, they did not fall below support. If they had lowered it, our shorts etc. would have been working, but the vix index increased by 25%.

When I looked at the Nasdaq side, I said that if Nvidia turned down this week, there would be a sell-off. Nvidia turned down on the contrary, Apple turned down. Meta was good this week, its chart was not bad either. It is currently still carrying the Magnificent 7 index. Nvidia held the index on the contrary this week. The main trend currently seen above 18000 continues upwards. There may be a decline below 19800 to 19200. October was generally a saw during the election period. But when there is this excessive expectation in the market, they buy upwards. September was like that too, so there is not a clear upward movement. In fact, there has been this Cycle since 1950, as in many years, at the end of the election. In terms of continuing the upward movement in the election year, I think it is right for there to be a correction in October. If it continues upwards, there is a negative discrepancy in weekly and monthly terms, these negative discrepancies generally work. Then the market comes down sharply. In order for something similar not to happen here, I think it would be better if they made a correction in October and then continued with the post-election rally.

Goldman Sachs announced that they gave a target of 6000 for S&P for the end of the year. Therefore, Goldman Sachs says here that they expect 6000 by the end of the year. It was 5600 before, I added 4% to my target, they say. They say that they give 6300 in 12 months. Frankly, if it comes to around 6300 in 12 months, of course we need to look at the index again there. Those places can also be resistance, but of course there is a long way to go. What is really important right now, in my opinion, is that there is a correction here. But this week they pushed down with the war news. If Nasdaq had come, I would have looked below 19200 there, wondering what would happen and what would end. But right now, as long as it stays above 18000, the direction in Nasdaq is up. There are two gaps in the 14000s, that makes me think. In these American stock markets, they come and buy this gap after months. In other words, there is not much gap left here. There was a gap around 20350, they bought it this week.

It seems like S&P will continue for now. The main direction is up, only if there is news about war, unpredictable, black swan, if there is news in the market, I mentioned the vix last week, it increased by 25% this week. Frankly, as long as the VIX does not go above 23-24 here, I think it is still very solid in the saw market, if it comes to around 15, we saw it is turning from here, UVIX can be tried again. In other words, someone who did not trade anything this week and only bought UVIX gained 25%. I can tell you that I remember stating this last week.

Silver is above 0.013 ounce gold in the coming weeks. Silver - Gold may perform well. The dollar index is 100 is an important level. There may be a correction in gold, but silver seems like it will be a bit better. If it goes above 0.013, if the Silver-Gold ratio does not pull gold down too much, silver may make a nice upward move. This week, American data suddenly came back good. Unemployment and employment data came out amazingly, somehow. Non-farm employment came twice as much as expected. Of course, nobody believes this, it is obvious that it is for the election. But Dxy is very strong, I had already mentioned last week that there may be an excessive selling reaction from here. That reaction came, we need to watch a little here now. Will it make a double bottom here, that is, a double triple bottom, and start a new wave up and up from here, or is this a temporary movement? In the data in America, they are revising the employment data downwards later. In other words, not many people believe this data in the market, to be honest.

In ounce gold, of course, a correction has started, albeit slightly, with the positive American data along with this DXY. It didn't happen very clearly, but the candle it left seems like this correction will continue. Therefore, in my opinion, a correction up to 210 in the support figures related to ounce gold is normal. I think there will be a correction, but the closing is still not bad. Only the candle they left gives the message that there may be a slight downward correction.

59700 is currently our daily support in Bitcoin. In other words, a slight downtrend below this may come into play at 52000. If these American stock exchanges, as I mentioned earlier, have a war news etc., and in my opinion, they have actually priced the war news, if there is something much more frightening like a nuclear facility, the use of nuclear weapons, if there is a VIX jump, I think VIX should be on the screen especially at this point. As I said this week, it gained 25%. There may be a possibility of a sale here as well. There are falling tops and falling bottoms here, parallel to the American stock exchanges. We couldn't get out of this downward channel. Bitcoin should initially remain around 67,000 and then 72,500, 73,000, because its weekly resistance is here, and the possibility of a double top is also here. Therefore, above 72,000 - 73,000, I think we will go above 100,000 very quickly. But they never allowed it.

I had stated last week that this decline in Brent oil will deepen below 68, just like Covid. They suddenly made things tense. Oil jumped 13% this week. From $ 68, from the support I mentioned, technical analysis is very important here, in other words, evaluating the news together, following it, then bringing together all the technical, fundamental, macro, exchange, balance sheet data and seeing the big picture is very important. Just as it was going to go down below $ 68, they jumped up on a war news. Now 80 and 85 are the resistance here. If this continues up, if it passes 85 - 86, oil will go above $ 100. It wouldn't be good for us either. In other words, the main trend of inflation in the world should be followed through oil, I think so. Some say Doctor Copper, copper, they also have a buyer's picture right now, and the reason for this purchase in silver is also the news of the incentives coming from China, which lifted that commodity side. Here, the continuation of this upwards means a new wave of inflation in the world. I hope they didn't make the same mistake they did in the 1970s. Because the FED's 50 basis point interest rate cut was completely political. For the election of Kamala Harris.

China's 50 major companies are at the bottom of the trend and there was a solid trend here, a 40% movement in 2-3 weeks. There was a terrible fomo here. The hedge funds led by Bank of America experienced a tremendous short squeeze. They were left in the lurch, they squeezed those funds here, those who were short. America is putting serious pressure on these Chinese companies, but we shouldn't look at that here. So, when it reaches the bottom of the trend in the future, we should buy and wait there. Here, analysts that I like and everyone knows, such as David Tepper and Michael Burry, had also taken positions in China. You will buy without looking if the trend has reached the bottom and forget about it.

The employment market and interest rate cut momentum should be followed in the upcoming period. They announced something amazing in the employment market this week. The data announced this week is expected to be 147,000 non-farm employment on Friday, they will announce 254,000, almost double that. In other words, this is amazing. In other words, unemployment fell, it was 4.2, it fell to 4.1. In other words, the 50 basis point interest rate cut must have worked for the market like this. This caused the market to revive suddenly. I think this also partially postponed the decline in the stock markets, but to what extent and how will the market perceive this. In other words, will inflation still revive here and reflation or will the deflation that they have postponed with war news come back into our lives in the upcoming period. I think the way to understand this is oil. If oil continues to rise, we can expect a second wave of inflation like in the 1970s. But if oil still gets approval from here and falls below $68, there could be a solid recession. The current picture is that America is laying off an incredible amount of white-collar workers. In other words, they are laying off senior managers. They are trying to manage employment with immigrants. If the unemployment data here is revised downwards, there is no such picture right now, what was announced this week is amazing, in other words, if Kamala Harris cannot be elected above this, it will never be elected anyway.

Now, 50 basis points are off the table all of a sudden. 25 basis points are currently being priced in. There will be an election in November, on November 5th. There will be an interest rate meeting on November 7th and pricing suddenly dropped from 50 basis points to 25 basis points. FOMC minutes are important this week. CPI in America will be announced. Consumer price index and producer price index in America are important this week. Consumer price index in America is expected to be a bit lower. This is a situation that will ignite the debate on whether it is deflation, recession or reflation. Inflation is coming down fast. America saw this and went and created a controlled crisis. Oil prices skyrocketed all of a sudden. I can say that it is doing its best to keep inflation alive, keep interest rates high, bond interest rates increased, DXY increased and the dollar is also entering the election a little bit stronger. The image on the American side has improved. They have taken the bottoms, there is no problem as long as it does not fall below the supports.