There is an atmosphere of uncertainty specifically for the American elections. They are neck and neck right now, Kamala Harris is clearly a little ahead in the polls. All pricing in the market is set for Kamala Harris to win. As you know, they made 50 basis points without any concrete justification for the interest rate cut. Right now, this week, the Core PCE FED's favorite inflation indicator, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, came and came in lower than expected. Therefore, inflation is falling rapidly, is it deflation? Here, the FED will cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points, this has already started today. There is a nuance here. The American elections are on November 5. The Fed meeting is on November 7. Therefore, unless the FED meets urgently and cuts interest rates, this is a very low probability, but I am stating it because it is a possibility. It would be beneficial to act this way. Other than that, there is not much in sight right now. But I think the possibility of 50 basis points in the next meeting should be in our minds with the following data.

The closing was a bit uncertain on the Nasdaq side this week. It will now be the last trading day of September. October will start after that. In October, pullbacks can generally be seen. But in fact, there is a strong image in the current S&P 500. However, when we look at it in the past, there have been pullbacks. When I look at cycles, it is in October during an election year. They were saying that September would be bad too, but if you notice, September was not so bad. Therefore, the market rises on a wall of uncertainty and fear. So this is an important concept. Especially social media, I think algorithms use it very well as sentiment here. If such fear is pumped excessively on social media, buyers can get stronger there. But sometimes, of course, social media is right. If we look at the technical view, there is a GAP around 10540 below. It seems like we will go down to buy it at the beginning of the week. We have 19140 support, 18380 weekly support, the last castle is 17860. If they are going to turn this into a head and shoulders formation, there was a negative divergence here, but they broke it on the right shoulder. Otherwise, you know, I said a solid sale was coming 2-3 weeks ago. But a strong purchase came. Now, if the support level of this purchase, which is 17860, falls below this, trouble will arise, let me say so.

It wouldn't be wrong to say that all global markets are looking at a single piece of paper. In fact, I also explained its correlation with Bitcoin last week. Now, I thought that sellers would get stronger under 119 on Friday when Nvidia broke. They bought it at 119, they didn't leave it under 119. If this 110 support is broken this week and it starts to slowly fall below 99-100, it will really pull Nasdaq down and the whole world down. I also consider this, a drop to 110, normal for Nvidia. But I expect it to return from 110, to be honest. Because at this stage, I don't think there is a bubble either. Price-earnings values ​​still support that Nvidia has an upward margin. But I expect October to be corrected by big players and corporates and a rally after the election in any case, to be honest. If they set it up according to the elimination of election uncertainty, they can make a correction here. I think this will be a buying opportunity. If the outlook weakens, let's say we go below such supports, hedge positions, SQQQ, UVIX should be considered. For example, VIX did not close badly either. I looked at it this week. In fact, if it had come below 15, the decline could have accelerated in VIX. There was a purchase at the close on Friday. Therefore, it will break its daily resistance above 18 - 23. There may be a purchase in VIX here. It should be ahead of us, VIX. Because as it gets cheaper here, big players hedge their positions in this way. Therefore, I think VIX should be in front of our eyes in these weeks.

I thought the dollar index had been down for a long time. In fact, the Euro touched its highest level in 14 months this week. The pound is also rising again. In the upcoming period, employment data will come this week on the US side. It seems like it will react now because of this overselling. Although the weekly close is still down. It closed below 100.5. This is an important level. I think we will see 95 here now.

We will go down but if we bounced with data here and said 2660 in ounce gold, for example, they put a needle above it a little. But then the closing was under resistance. So this is still resistance at 2660. This is an important level. If this place is starting to get crowded as I thought. If long gold is thinking of making a correction now, they can slightly increase the DXY and bond interest rates and then make the DXY down again. I thought BofA's statement in ounce gold was a correction sign. But it really continues, I would like to state that ounce gold still has an upward margin in the long term.

Silver's chart currently looks a bit better than silver's. Therefore, if long positions in silver are pulled back to 29-30 levels during declines, it would be healthier, especially if it does not fall below 30. But let's say they put a needle on 29, I think there is a high probability of an uptrend from there. I think silver will continue to rise as well.

Bitcoin was a bit risky before the election. This week is going well, I hope the closing will be good as well. The classic coin market is currently selling on Sunday. But Bitcoin is above the 72500 weekly resistance. These are the places to go or not. In other words, if we start to stay above 72500 and break the double top here at 73800, we will easily go above 100000. If they are thinking of another round of pullback here, of course we need to be a little careful here. I just like the weekly outlook. In other words, the weekly outlook makes me think that Bitcoin will go up. But it will have tried for the seventh time to break the resistance. Therefore, there is a risk of coming down again like this for another round. The weekly outlook supports the upward movement. I hope we will break and go through the pieces. I think the incentive news from China will also be positive.

Will the global economy in Brent oil be in deflation and recession or will inflation revive or will inflation fall very quickly? The Core PCE data that came last week was like a deflationary data. So, I think there is a similarity between the corona collapse and the current image in this image here. Technically, as I mentioned last week, it seems like it has received approval for a decrease from here. But it has not yet started to be priced below $68. If it starts to fall below $68, the sellers of Brent oil may gain strength here. There is such an image. The Trump administration is also interesting, saying that oil will be $50-$55 if he is elected. So this is also interesting. In other words, Trump is normally known as the man of the oil lobby. But I saw such a statement in their election manifesto, it caught my attention. If the sales of oil start to harden and the stock market joins in, the sales may harden, even if it is not like corona. This is a possibility. So the market is ultimately moving together. Therefore, if it falls below $68, we should be careful. Now the net gas is slowly turning. They crashed from $10 to $1. But there was no crisis anywhere. If they do this and bring the oil down, it will be around $40, that is, if there is no sale in other places, there will be no problem. But I think this outlook is still dominant here, as long as it cannot go up again and above $86.

China was the star of the week. I think there is still upward potential here in Chinese companies. But of course we should see the pullbacks. Because there was a sharp rally, I think the pullbacks here may be suitable for gradual cost. The employment market will be important this week. There is non-farm payrolls data on Friday on the American side. When the interest rate cut momentum came below expectations last week, the core PCE suddenly started to be discussed whether to cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. The election is on November 5, the next interest rate cut meeting is on November 8, right after the election. Here, frankly, unless there is an emergency, it is calm at the moment, but after the election, according to one view, inflation will revive like after the 1970s. For example, commodity prices are increasing incredibly right now. Sugar and similar ones do not attract much attention, but those who follow commodities know. Copper has also increased, it shows the health of the global economy. Doctors call it copper. In other words, their pricing is not very recessionist. But, in other words, we need to proceed within the bounds of possibility in the market. The bond market is clearly pricing in recession right now.

The Dow Jones continues to break records. In other words, there is no recessionist image right now. In other words, at least there is no such pricing. But next week, the golden modeling in non-farm employment is still upwards, employment will increase. This week, it came to 3%. Pricing is still upwards, growth is still upwards. In other words, in many modelings, institutions do not have any inflationary data at the moment. But it was like that in 2008. However, right now, we are not in a situation where we are going to collapse, in a crisis like this, as they call it fear mongering. In other words, I am just following the data. I am trying to analyze it correctly. I'm not going to be too eager for either direction. But right now, I think the main direction is still up. Okay, there may be a pullback this week. But that is, before a solid support is broken and a strong sell-off occurs, which we saw in the corona, it lasted for a month and a half at most. After that, we saw new rallies again. Now, bonds are commodities, yes, we said this clearly, they are already pricing deflationary. However, the price is the leader here. The price is not like this for now.

Next week, there will be non-farm payrolls data on Friday on the US side, PMIs, and crude oil stocks on Wednesday. As you know, Friday unemployment data and unemployment going up rapidly may scare the stock markets a bit. In fact, the general picture is that gold may sell off, but my upward analysis and thoughts on gold in the medium term continue. There will be unemployment data and PMIs on the Euro side. Japan's new Prime Minister Fumio Kishiba seemed to be a bit like the messages he gave would disturb the stock markets. Although he said he would not interfere with the Central Bank, of course the Japanese Central Bank's actions here should be careful. Japan is an important player here, especially because the carry trade has ended. The EU and UK sides are the same. The US elections are coming. There is uncertainty, hedging positions and avoiding high risks, at least in this environment, by making an average cost, I think it is difficult for small investors to find the bottom and the top. But I think that such a course of action away from fomo with an average cost and a rational investment strategy will yield good gains in the medium term.

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