My Thoughts on Current Markets-186

By Perfectionist25 | Tech. Analysis | 6 Sep 2024


The 16000 - 10000 fall in Nasdaq has reached Fibonacci 1.272 and has been correcting since then. 16600 - 15600 is an important decision support area for Nasdaq. Especially unless 15600 is broken, the pressure towards this area is a relative opportunity for the next 18024 rise. There are disciplines that need to be done while managing the opportunity. Without debt, without leverage and accepting the carrying cost etc. Therefore, the sale that Nasdaq has received may continue for a while in a way that 16698 intermediate support will be support for the 15600 level. Unless this area is broken, the declines towards this area will again be a relative opportunity for Nasdaq to continue its upward movement in the strategic large framework towards 18024 and above. Relative opportunity means an opportunity that needs to be managed in a controlled manner. Risk appetite will not increase much. Unless there is a weekly close below 15600, roughly 20000 is the target of the American Nasdaq. But unless 18024 is passed, it may show saw-like movements between 18000 and 15600 until it is passed. America will be a region where we will experience intense bear-bull wars. What will make me a bear in America here, what will put me in a bearskin, is breaking 15600. The pullback may continue unless 15600 is broken.

Berkshire Hathaway broke a new record by exceeding 1 trillion dollars in market value. While Nasdaq is under pressure, Uncle Buffett's stock is also going up. Apart from momentum, there is stability here, there is value investing and my favorite trend. Trend is your friend. Uncle Buffett has set the trend for his stock and says I go according to the trend. Now that he has switched to cash, Uncle Buffett says he continues to make money while the stock markets are under pressure. As a result, Uncle Buffett is making money but let me tell you, they will fix Uncle Buffett soon. Because technical analysis says that movements can remain parabolically upward and accelerated. I wish good profits to those who have assets. But these movements definitely end with sharp corrections. In other words, if Uncle Buffett says that he is starting to buy stocks since he has switched to cash after a certain point, he will have accepted that he did the right thing in the short term and will have won. But the long term will return. Uncle Buffett may not return. Because, is he not an old wolf, he knows when to return.

The 8 and 34-week trend continues its upward movement above the moving averages. Here, 528 is the strategic target in terms of strategic focus. The price is going up but it has moved away from the moving averages. It is necessary to think a few times when making a new cost in prices that move away from the moving averages. The gap between Mac and Triger has opened, the mouth has opened, when it opened, it did not fall in the past, but it called the averages by tilting the graph to the right and resting it, and corrected it. For example, I will not say a sharp sale here, but there may be a horizontal binding. In this sense, these indicators can restrain investors emotionally against the risk of not making a wrong cost. For a cost below 400 - 425, in my technical reading, the bottom of the bottom it saw a week ago is a sign of weakness. You can read the bottom of the 8-week moving average as a sign of weakness as a take profit stop or stop loss. As long as it stays above this, you will say 528 is Berkshire's target, but you will not forget this; they can correct this chart at least a few times before seeing 528, it also needs to cool down a little. Therefore, as long as this chart stays above 425 and 416, it will maintain its 528 target. However, the possibility of a correction before going to 528 should also be kept as a risk on the side.

If you look at the AMD weekly chart, it fell from 164 to 54 in 2022, a huge and terrible fall. When you throw a fibonacci to this peak and this bottom, the fibonacci of 232.9 has seen 1.618, that is, the golden ratio. It has left itself from there. The 220 - 230 band is its medium-term fibonacci target. You know, when the market reaches a certain value, they say its story is over, its technical story ended at 232.9. I say that 232 is technically expensive, and the 127 - 106 region is also technically eroded. As a result, 127 and 122 are AMD's major support areas, and it also took a breath from the 54.8 bottom and the approximately 89-week moving average. Therefore, 127 and 122 are AMD's short-term major support areas. We need to see if this could be the bottom. Saying it could be is overly ambitious and may not be true in this current conjuncture, but I can say this.

If 127 - 122 is broken, I will visit AMD here at 106 to tickle a little. After stating that 127 - 122 is short-term support and 106 is medium-term support, there is no trend in AMD unless 164.80 is passed, and there is no money. When something technically reaches a leveled area, it does not mean trending. It does not mean making money unless there is a trend. In AMD, the runway does not open, the plane approaches the runway, and the tower does not signal takeoff until 164.80 is passed. If 164.80 is passed and closing starts above it, an uptrade discipline will be formed towards 186 - 203.5 by placing a stop at a reasonable place below it, towards the 232.9 peak and the 61.8 - 78.6 area of ​​the 127 bottom. AMD may be leveled off unless 164.80 is passed, but it does not trend.

Fear of recession is currently suppressing the interest rate cut story in my opinion. In my opinion, if Nasdaq reaches the technical levels I just described, my expectation of reading these as opportunities without leverage and debt and my strategy in that direction will continue. If an investor buys something because it is falling, because its value is getting cheaper, knowing that it will not make money unless there is a trend, then they should not do this. Oh, I bought it because it fell a lot, I bought it because it was a very valuable company, but it fell after I bought it. The difference here is that if you are a trader, you buy goods when falling trends pass. If you are a trader, you join the trend when the falling trend passes. But if you are a value investor, here is your opportunity. Because when the price returns to the trend, it makes money. So in short, the decline in America may continue to wear down investors for a while. However, I expect Nasdaq in America, in particular, to reach Fibonacci 1.618.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

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Tech. Analysis
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