I also observe positive fluctuations in EURUSD following the inflation data kept constant by the European Central Bank. While this situation increases expectations for an interest rate cut, the attention of the markets is turned to the interest rate decision of the European Central Bank. While interest rates are expected to remain constant, it is supported that the rise may accelerate towards 1.1031 levels as the 1.0959 supply level is exceeded in pricing. However, although there is no clear outlook in terms of opposite scenarios, I can say that the first withdrawal may occur towards 1.0898 levels against the potential sales reactions that may come from 1.0959 levels.
EURUSD parity is hovering around $1.0938 on the new day. When I evaluate the Euro - Dollar parity, it is possible to talk about an increase of 2.08% as of this month. Especially if the level above 1.0948 is exceeded, 1.0985 - 1.1015 region can be opened. For now, we consider the pricing above the level of 1.0900 - 1.0930 as positive in favor of the Euro, but in case of possible correction movements, we can note aside the support of 1.0862, which was tested as the lowest level when I examined it on a weekly basis. Today, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision. ECB President Lagarde's speeches will be followed with great care.
In GBPUSD, the Bank of England's inflation data came in above expectations, strengthening the perception that the process of postponing interest rate cut expectations could be further extended, and this provided upward support to pricing. In line with the possible reactions from the 1.2966 demand area, the possibility of the buy side potentials continuing towards 1.3091 levels increases, while breaking the 1.2966 level is important in terms of negative scenarios. In this case, a decline towards 1.2874 levels may be technically possible.
I observe that the negative pressure on USDJPY has progressed to 155.55 as the FED's determination to reduce interest rates comes to the fore. Below these levels, I can say that the decline towards 154.271 levels may become stronger with the activation of structures that will support the continuation of the current trend. However, fluctuations may occur due to the impact of data to be announced during the day on pricing. In terms of positive dominance, a short-term recovery towards 157.976 levels may be observed due to the short-term reactions that may come from the 155.55 demand area.
I see that ounce gold pricing continues with a negative dominance in the short-term perspective, with the FED manufacturing index and US unemployment data to be announced within the day being effective. Despite the selling pressures, FED Chairman Powell's statements stating that the 2% inflation target is achievable continue to cause interest rate cuts to be priced in the markets. Momentarily, after the new peak, it is observed that the squeezes under the 2485.2 supply area continue in a negative direction. If it remains below this region, we can expect selling pressures to first occur towards the 2429.7 demand region. In terms of optimistic scenarios, I can say that new peaks can only occur towards 2527 levels with the breaking of the 2485.2 supply level.
As of this morning, Ounce Gold is trading at $ 2468.85. As of July, the 6.11% increase continues to attract attention. Levels to look for above would be the $2480 - 2500 region. When I evaluate it a little more in the medium and long term, I think that the $ 2600 level in Ounce Gold prices has the potential to be tested. The bullish momentum can be supported in the presence of transactions above the $2450 - 2460 region, which I followed during the day. In the opposite scenario, I say that $ 2390 support may come to the fore in closings under the $ 2450 - 2460 region.
While the rise in crude oil stock data is lower than expected, pushing the 82.20 supply zone, I observe that the selling pressure below this zone may continue in the medium-term perspective. In this case, there may be a decline towards the 79.82 demand region in downward movements. On the other hand, I can say that the potential for bullish pricing may expand towards 84.47 levels once the 82.20 supply zone is exceeded.
The strong rises seen in Bitcoin continue, especially under the 65684 supply area. As this level is exceeded, the upside potential towards 73000 levels becomes stronger. I observe that possible short-term corrections can be considered as buying opportunities, and the reactions from the region indicate this direction. However, one should be careful against sales pressures that may occur below the 65684 level and remember that corrections may create buying opportunities. Although there are no obvious signals for negative scenarios, these dynamics in the market should be closely monitored.
After the European Central Bank's inflation data on the DAX remained stable in line with expectations, it seems that the markets have turned their focus to the interest rate decision. While the market expects interest rates to decrease, I observe that pricing is stuck above the 18416 demand zone as the decision is kept constant. This situation may allow the buying potential to expand towards 18649 levels in the short term. For bearish scenarios, the 18416 demand zone must first be broken. In this case, I think that the retreat towards 18261 levels may technically be deeper.
The New York stock exchange ended the day with a mixed course due to concerns about escalating trade and geopolitical tensions between the USA and China. Following the news that the US administration is considering imposing heavy trade restrictions if companies continue to provide access to advanced semiconductor technology to China, there were sharp sales in the shares of companies related to chip and artificial intelligence, while the share markets followed a mixed course. In Bloomberg's news on the subject, it was reported that US President Joe Biden's administration told its allies that "it is considering using the most severe trade restrictions if companies such as Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV continue to provide access to advanced semiconductor technology to China." Following the news, chip manufacturers Nvidia's shares lost 6.6 percent, Broadcom's shares lost 7.9 percent, AMD's shares lost 10.2 percent and Qualcomm's shares lost 8.6 percent. In addition, the shares of US technology giants Microsoft are 1.3 percent, Alphabet's shares are 1.5 percent, Apple's shares are 2.5 percent, Amazon's shares are 2.6 percent and Meta's shares are 5 percent. 7 fell.
Comments by former US President Donald Trump, the presidential candidate of the Republican Party, also increased the pressure on the shares of chip companies. In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, Trump claimed that Taiwan took almost all of America's semiconductor business and said Taiwan should pay the United States for defense. On the monetary policy side, while the statements of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials were being followed, Fed Board Member Christopher Waller stated that the time for the bank to cut interest rates was "approaching". On the macroeconomic data side, industrial production in the USA increased by 0.6 percent on a monthly basis in June, above market expectations. As the earnings season continues in the USA, Johnson & Johnson's shares gained 3.7 percent after the company's financial results exceeded expectations in the second quarter.
In Nasdaq, a negative dominance is observed in the index due to the effect of sales pressures in technology companies. For now, the index is stuck above the 19878 intermediate support level. As long as it remains above this level, a short-term pullback seems likely to occur towards 20185 levels. However, if this level is broken downwards, prices may gain momentum and decline further towards 19533 levels. In this context, I can emphasize that the US Fed manufacturing index and unemployment data to be announced within the day should be followed closely.
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