My Thoughts on Current Markets-146

By Biologist25 | Tech. Analysis | 9 Jul 2024


The New York Stock Exchange completed the first trading day of the week with a mixed course. While investors were looking for clearer signals about the possible monetary policy path of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), a mixed course was observed in the stock markets on the first trading day of the week. The statements of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the inflation data to be published in the country this week are expected to give clues about the Fed's future monetary policies. Pointing out that large banks such as Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo will also publish their second quarter balance sheets this week, I can say that the financial results of the banks will also be in the focus of investors. On the other hand, the short-term inflation expectation of consumers in the USA decreased by 0.2 points to 3 percent in June. According to the data published by the Fed, consumer loans in the country increased above expectations with 11.3 billion dollars in May.

European stock markets finished the first trading day of the week with a decline, except for Italy. At the closing, the benchmark index Stoxx Europe 600 lost 0.03 percent of its value, falling to 516.43 points. Investors in Europe welcomed the victory of the left alliance in the elections held in France with caution. As a result of the second round of early general elections in France, the left While the alliance came in first place, Macron's alliance came in second. The extreme right, who came first in the first round, fell to third place. Let me state that the statements of US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will be the focus of the markets today. A positive start can be seen in national indices on the second trading day of the week.

EURUSD parity is at $ 1.0829 levels on the new day. The persistence of the course above 1.0820, which I follow in the parity, can be considered as a continuation of the upward movement. Thus, resistance levels above 1.0837-1.0847-1.0854 can be followed. If these levels are exceeded, then I will be following the 1.0885 - 1.0915 region above. The peak level of this year in Euro-Dollar parity, which was 1.1056 seen at the beginning of the year, continues to be remembered.

While the momentum of buying movements in GBPUSD is weakening, the focus is on the growth data to be announced in the UK on Thursday. From a technical perspective, growth data must be negative for the short-term pressure below the 1.2618 supply zone to continue. In this case, declines towards the 1.2709 demand area can be expected to come to the fore. In terms of optimistic price movement, expectations are currently in the background. Therefore, we must see clear closes above the 1.2816 supply area.

I observe that the USDJPY parity continues to decline strongly above the 159.904 demand zone. If there are closures below this region, I can say that the decline may continue up to the 158.749 demand region. Although there are no clear signs of positive scenarios at the moment, a short-term correction seems possible as long as it manages to hold on to the 159.904 region. It would be correct to state that if this correction gains strength, 161.826 levels should be closely monitored.

It is observed that the horizontal course of oil above the 81.86 demand zone continues with the effect of momentum. It can be said that if this level is broken downwards, the potential for prices to decline towards the 79.82 demand region will increase. Although there is no clear signal in terms of upward movements, it is important to closely monitor the movements above the 81.86 demand region.

It is observed that the selling pressures in the crypto asset market are concentrated under the 58712 supply area. This shows that the decline towards the 51352 demand region may accelerate. For an upward movement to occur, the 58712 supply zone must be crossed. In this scenario, I can technically predict that the balances may change positively again and prices may rise towards 65684 levels.

The short-term downward trend in the Eurozone continues due to the uncertainty created by the elections and the negative impact of the financial situation. The continuation of the pressure under the 18630 ​​supply area is observed in DAX. I think this pressure may continue towards the 18261 demand region. An upside potential is not evident at the moment, but if the 18630 ​​supply area is exceeded, an upside opportunity towards 18844 levels may occur. In general, I can say that sales expectations dominate the market.

After the peak levels in commodity stocks, the Nasdaq index continues to try to reach new peaks. Although the movement below the 20647 level remains limited due to the lack of momentum, I can say that a rise towards 21118 levels is technically possible if this level is exceeded. There is no clear signal in terms of downside potentials at the moment. However, it will be necessary to closely monitor the impact of the US data to be announced on Thursday.

Ounce Gold is at $ 2365.64 as of this morning. It is possible to state that following the non-agricultural employment data, the $2392.93 level was tested on the ounce gold side, but it retreated by -1.11% as of this week. The presentation that Fed Chairman Powell will make first in the Senate and then in the House of Representatives and the Consumer Inflation data from the USA for June are the important topics on this week's data agenda. Although the precious metal depends on the action the Fed will take in terms of interest rate reduction, it may cause volatility in pricing. I wish you a profitable day.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

 

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