Inflation data in America was announced as 3.3. There is a decline, but it still does not seem to be enough for Powell. So much so that the markets, which skyrocketed when inflation was announced, crashed again while Powell was speaking. I have been angry with the decisions taken by the Central Bank of America for the last 6 months, they are not real and unrealistic. It has already narrowed the market, it has been giving positive real interest for months. They are still insisting on interest rate cuts. There may also be political situations here. So there may also be political reasons. Because no Central Bank is actually independent. In other words, no matter how autonomous and independent we say it is, it is not independent. Maybe they can make a move before the election as an investment in the election. Maybe they want the current order to change. This is why they insist, I don't know anymore. But it doesn't make sense for them to still insist on interest rates right now. When an interest rate cut comes, there is already excitement in the markets. However, we can also see some of this as priced. Because gold had reached up to 2400 dollars. It hovers between 2300 - 2400. But let's say it reaches 2650, there is an interest rate cut. Harsh corrections may occur after gold reaches 2560. Because now it will be like the expectation is priced and the expectation is over. But ultimately, this timing will be in a period that means something to them. We cannot predict this. Otherwise, there is no reason not to reduce interest rates under current market conditions. But somehow they get the ball rolling. Let's see how far they will turn it. I hope they start dropping it as soon as possible.
The Bitcoin side is in its death throes and has not been able to break its resistance. With Powell's speech on June 12, there was a very sharp movement from 66000 to 70000, from 70000 to 67000 again. The investors there are really fed up now. When we look at Bitcoin's chart, we tested the 72000 level 4 times and could not break it. This place has become a very strong resistance. There was the last upward wave before, that is, a rising movement from 38000 to 74000. When I look at the rising line I drew from 38000, I can say that the support here is the main support area and the 64000 - 65000 region. When we look at the 4-hour period of the movement on June 12, there was actually an upward increase before moving to the buy position. But before we could see a clear buy position, there was a decline again. I am still talking about the 4-hour period in the sell position, but not the daily period. Now this is a bit of a problem. So it seems like it will be worth 64000 - 65000. But we are now starting to come to the end of this squeeze. If there are falling bottoms but it turns into a rising bottom, the price moves upwards to break the resistance. Here too, in this decline, it reaches the 64000 - 65000 region. If it holds, it will turn again and if it moves to a buy position, it will make a move to break 72000 in the next move. Time is running out for him.
Of course, it is very important that the 64000 - 65000 region holds and this support works strongly. If 64000, which is not an unbreakable support, is broken, this time there will be a relaxation in the price up to the previous support level of 56000 and then the main structure will be disrupted. In other words, when the main structure breaks down, this correction enters a process that may take much longer. So we enter a process that may extend until the end of summer. I hope nothing like this happens. This is why I am angry with the FED and Powell. The longer it takes because this is going to delay it. In order to delay it, he will first pour it horizontally, hammer it down, then lift it up again and take it up. This is how he gets through this process. But I hope there will be a movement related to the dynamics of the crypto itself, so that the FED will not be shaken and we will break 72000. But we are now in a critical area. It may take 1 - 2 weeks for this area to become clear. Let's see if we can see the bottom first. Will it hold even if we see 64000 - 65000? Even if it holds, will it go up again and move into a buy position? If it moves into a buy position, I won't ask if it will break 72000, I will see if it breaks there. This is the situation with bitcoin in general.
I hope there will be movement here as soon as possible, either rising or falling. Because there is also such a thing as time cost. This also affects investors a lot. But I think stockbrokers and crypto traders should not worry too much about the time cost. If we are investors here and we have solved the main model here, there is something like this in the stock market and crypto. Crypto was not something that was in our lives before. But stock markets have been around for years, decades. If the stock market, which has not made a profit for 10 months, makes a very strong profit for 2 months, you will be overtaken by inflation. Since there is such an opportunity, the stockbroker should never look at my earnings according to inflation, what my earnings are according to interest, or what my earnings are according to dollars.
If he is a successful stockbroker, he may make mistakes, make mistakes, and incur losses in the short term. However, the market will provide opportunities to focus on the dynamics of the market again and make a move to close that gap. So now the goal of people in crypto is to make 10x 20x 30x. So why can't we earn 50% - 60% here? Look, we haven't been able to earn money for 2 months. If we also say that there is inflation, we will put ourselves in an absurd vicious circle. This also applies to stock markets. If you catch one stock, there will be a nice upward trend. 2x makes 3x money your amount of inflation becomes a negligible rate. That's why we need to focus on the potential rather than the costs here and distract ourselves.
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