Today, the world is faced with this question once again. The US airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities has shattered the already fragile balances. The threat from Iran to “close the Strait of Hormuz” is no longer just a diplomatic showdown; it is a possibility of a direct intervention into the weakest link in the global energy chain.

The Strait of Hormuz is the only gateway through which oil from the Persian Gulf reaches the world. 20 million barrels of oil pass through this narrow passage per day. Iran, on the other hand, holds one-fifth of the global oil supply. For the Gulf countries, this is not just a waterway; it is their economic lifeline. If this strait is closed, not only regional producers but also all world economies dependent on this oil will be deeply affected.

That is why Iran’s threat to close the strait is taken as seriously as a direct declaration of war. Moreover, this is not the first time this has happened. Iran has been working on the Hormuz scenario with simulations for years and has been trying temporary closure maneuvers. But this time the picture is different. With the US directly targeting nuclear facilities, red lines have been crossed.

Iran is no longer just bluffing, it is openly putting its options on the table. So why are global markets still calm? Although Brent oil has risen by nearly 10% in the last few days, there are no sharp sell-offs in the indexes. There are only partial movements in safe havens such as the dollar and gold.

The reason for this calm is that Iran has not yet taken any concrete steps. But investors know that if this tension escalates to the next level, it could trigger a crisis that will reshape not only energy prices but also all inflation estimates and central bank policies.

According to Goldman Sachs’ calculations, if the flow of oil through Hormuz decreases by 50% for a month, Brent oil could rise to $110 for a short time. In such a scenario, expectations for interest rate cuts by global central banks such as the Fed could also be disrupted and upward revisions in inflation could be on the agenda again.

On the other hand, this crisis is not only about energy pricing; it is also an important test in terms of the China-US balance. China, Iran’s largest oil customer, sees the Strait of Hormuz remaining open as vital to its own energy security. According to EIA data, China imported 5.4 million barrels of oil per day through Hormuz in the first quarter of this year alone. This corresponds to about 50% of China’s total oil imports.

If Iran were to close the strait, it would not only confront the West but also Beijing. This would lead to isolation in foreign policy, a toughening of economic embargoes, and the risk of losing the support of allies. Iran has several options:

It could try to buy time by deepening its nuclear program, respond with low-intensity asymmetric attacks against the US, or, most radically, actually close the Strait of Hormuz. Closing the Strait of Hormuz would create a shock that could affect not only the energy market, but also global supply chains, financial systems, and investment behavior.

The real question for investors is no longer “Will the Strait of Hormuz close?” Because the real issue is how this risk will redefine portfolio compositions, pricing, and risk appetite. If Iran really closes the Strait of Hormuz or takes serious retaliation against the US, the investment world may switch to a new pricing regime.

At this point, the current scenario chart shared by Bloomberg reveals three different possibilities that are striking.

→ In the first scenario, if Iran takes serious military retaliation against the US and the tension escalates into a regional war, Brent oil prices could quickly rise to the $130-140 range. Such a scenario could directly affect not only energy supply but also global growth forecasts and stock markets.

→ The second possibility is that Iran takes symbolic retaliation but continues the conflict with Israel. In this case, oil prices could remain in the $80-90 range. In other words, although pricing still carries a geopolitical risk premium, it creates a more manageable wave. This scenario may not be shocking enough to fundamentally change the policy actions of central banks, although it will continue to put pressure on energy-intensive sectors.

→ In the third scenario, if Iran gives a symbolic response and a ceasefire with Israel is reached, Brent crude oil may fall below $70 again. In this case, risk appetite may recover; although growth-oriented sectors may regain momentum, the fact that geopolitical tensions have not completely disappeared suggests that such relief may not be permanent.

In short, the fate of the Strait of Hormuz directly determines not only tanker routes, but also the direction of global capital flows, inflation expectations and investment strategies.