Price Fluctuation

How Much Of Trading Is Just Dumb Luck?

By R23 | Supportive Crypto Community | 3 Jun 2022

price fluctuation.jpeg


Today I was able to stack a good amount of crypto-assets. I bought some BTC and pumped my Splinterlands collection over the 100,000 CP point for the very first time (which I am hype about but didn't want to post about for the third day in a row).

I also took a small bit of money and bought into RUNE on leverage (despite the fact I said I wouldn't do it again) and am watching it slowly creep into the green.

What Was My Strategy?

Well honestly there was very little strategy employed at all here. I saw that prices were dipping to a 24 hour low and decided that I would buy in hoping that it would turn around. In the short term it has, but of course playing with leverage one bad break could liquidate you.

This got me thinking though... If I was able to make a profitable trade, just how much of trading is actually dumb luck? I am referring to trading in this sense as day trading or other short term trades.

I see Tik Tokers and Youtubers hyping up their trading strategies that have netted them huge gains and I am wondering whether or not a baboon would have eventually made the same gains as them by employing random trading strategies.

Do Signals Actually Mean Anything?

There are thousands of successful traders that stand by the concept that they employ the use of indicators such as moving averages, volume analysis, supply/demand and more to be able to make profit consistently. If they are doing that and actually making gains then all credit to them, I'm impressed.

It feels like the basic human tendency is to try to make logic out of that which we don't understand, and I believe that the markets are a perfect representation of this. I truly believe that markets are nearly completely irrational despite the popular belief that markets are a reflection of their mostly rational participants. It is this human instinct though that leads us to attribute value to different trading signals and indicators. Though there may be decent correlations, there is always that disclaimer that past performance will not predict future performance, and to me these signals are needle the haystack types of things.

When it comes to short term trading, I simply can't believe anything other than it is almost completely random based on what people believe other people will think about what other people will think, etc. when it comes to valuation. It is entirely subjective in my opinion and thus trading signals that seek objectivity are just not cutting it for me.

Nonetheless, trading is fun when done within reason and watching the price fluctuations can lead to huge gains (or losses) depending on how lucky you are in an unpredictable market.

That's my rant on irrational markets...

Come talk basketball on Dunk Social!



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Who I am:
My name is Rob and I am a financial analyst with interests in cryptocurrency and blockchain. I have enjoyed my time thus far engaging with Web 3.0 and am looking to continue learning more and sharing what I learn through my experience.

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A new cryptocurrency investor looking to learn as much as possible about smart contracts and coding!

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