In recent months, Bitcoin has been traded with only minor price changes, leaving the realised capitalisation indicator net position change near zero.

The average volume per exchange decreased to 0.44 BTC per active address. A similar pattern was previously observed in 2018 and late 2020. The situation is illustrated by comparing the volume of coins sent over the past week with an average value of -0.5 of the standard deviation.

Similar lulls have preceded major price movements in the past. The latest one has lasted for 535 days, which predicts a relatively early start of a new bull cycle.

The low volume and realised capitalisation indicators point to a decrease in speculative interest among short-term holders, as well as the reluctance of hodlers to get rid of coins at current prices. Moreover, hodlers are replenishing their reserves at a rapid pace, accumulating 50,000 BTC a month.

MicroStrategy, the largest public hodlers, has accumulated 158,245 BTC at a total cost of $4.3 billion. Meanwhile, the world's largest investment company, BlackRock, applied for the creation of a Bitcoin spot ETF and acquired shares in the largest miners for $400 million.

They're all waiting for the crypto rally to start in late 2023 or early 2024. In a recent interview, the billionaire and hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones spoke about the most precarious situation in the American financial system since World War II due to inflated external debt and exorbitant payments to service it.

In May 2020, Tudor Jones placed up to 2% of assets in Bitcoin, and in 2023, he announced his desire to bring the figure to 5%, calling BTC a great way to protect wealth in the long term.

StormGain Analytical Group
(platform for trading, exchanging and storing cryptocurrency)