In a forecast case study released in February, Ark Invest presented three scenarios for the cryptocurrency market until 2030. The bearish one suggests Bitcoin will rise to just $260,000, while the bullish one foresees a surge to $1.5 million. In an interview with Bloomberg this week, Cathie Wood said the team's confidence in the bullish scenario has increased.
Wood believes Bitcoin will continue to establish itself as an insurance option against inflation and that "everyone will want it at the end of the day." Cryptocurrency protects wealth from outright confiscation, inflation, and the risk of loss to third parties (counterparties) when stored or transferred. With the adoption of cryptocurrencies and the regulatory and legal framework in place, interest in Bitcoin will grow exponentially.
The SEC being flooded with applications to launch Bitcoin ETFs clearly indicates the same. Ark Invest teamed up with 21Shares and applied documents ahead of investment giant BlackRock. The SEC has accepted this and other submissions, as indicated in the public records note. A decision is due on 13 August, but the regulator can push the deadline forward.
Some experts agree that BlackRock's participation increases the chances of a positive outcome. Existing cryptocurrency funds have already experienced an influx of capital from institutional investors not seen since Q4 2021, with over $700 million invested in Bitcoin in four weeks.
Major participants expect a rally after the first Bitcoin spot ETFs appear in the US.
When it comes to price targets, the $1.5 million forecast from Cathie Wood fits well with Bitcoin's four-year cycle model.
In the current cycle, with a record in 2026, Bitcoin will reach a maximum in the range of $100,000 to $1 million. And in the next cycle, with a peak in 2030, the price will range from $1 million to $10 million.
It's unknown whether the Ark Invest team was guided by the theory of cycles. Potential investors should consider that forecasts and mathematical models give only a conditional idea of future changes.
StormGain Analytical Group
(platform for trading, exchanging and storing cryptocurrency)
