Crypto news is full of bitcoin bottom predictions. In January 2022 some experts were predicting bitcoin to drop to the $ 38 — $ 40k range. More recently experts have been predicting the bottom at $ 10 — $ 12k range. In reality the bottom will not be clear until looking at it in hindsight.

Sometimes the best way to see the future is to look to the past. Is it possible that the two most recent bitcoin bear markets could indicate an important trend being played out in the current bear market ?

In the 2014–2016 bear market it took 407 days for a bottom to form with bitcoin dropping from over $ 1k to just below $ 200 before a bottom was established.

In the 2018–2020 bear market it took 364 days for a bottom to form when bitcoin fell from $19,640 to $3,185.

On November 10, 2022 exactly 365 days after bitcoin hit it’s ATH in 2021 BTC was trading at $ 15,787 in the wake of the FTX debacle. The previous low for bitcoin this year was June when trading at $ 17.7k . If it was not for the black swan event of FTX would the June low have held up as the bottom for this bear market cycle ?

Entertain this thought. If not for the FTX debacle and the June low would have held up as the low, the number of days from bitcoin market top to bottom would have decreased to 210 days. Could it be that bear market cycles are trending to a shorter time frame ?

Given the broader macroeconomic circumstances I realize my thoughts are extremely speculative but I can’t help but wonder as bull market cycles lengthen and returns diminish could it be that bear markets cycles will decrease in duration as bitcoin matures as an asset ?

Thanks for reading and I welcome your comments !