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The Macro Situation

deprivation tank (noun)

• a flotation tank whose dark and enclosed environment is used for stimulation therapy and well-being;

• economically, when a lack of significant data over a period of time produces anxiety over the state of economic affairs.

                                             ― New Entry in the Updated Devil’s Dictionary

Is no news good news?

Enter a week where there was little economic data, which did little to allay investor fears that the Fed has reacted too slowly when cutting interest rates.

Last week’s jobless numbers may have helped soothe some worries as claims fell to 233,000 from the previous week’s 250,000.

Next week will be much more telling with data from the Producer Price and Consumer Price Indices.

At the time of writing, the Fed Watch tool, which tracks the prices of various futures contracts related to interest rates (particularly the federal funds rate), estimates the chances of a rate cut in September are 51% for 25bps and 49% for 50bps.

Up to the week ending on August 2, 2024, the ANFCI increased to -0.48 from -0.51 the previous week, which still indicates a good financial climate for investment.

Core Assets Update

Gold (2470.60) held relatively steady in view of next week’s inflation data. The US dollar (103.15) has correspondingly remained level.

Crude Oil (76.19) was bolstered by tensions in the Middle East while worries about a U.S. recession have eased.

The 10-year Treasury yield (3.94%) rose as a result of the Middle East geopolitical situation but saw a slight drop by the end of the week with lower than expected jobless numbers.

                                             -Todd Mei, PhD and Sebastian Purcell, PhD

 

AI Sentiment Report

The following sentiment scores use AI to track sectors as leading indicators. (Lesson 4 of The Art of The Bubble covers the selection of lead indicators for bubble trades). The scores are most indicative for the next day of trading (a Monday), but they appear to set the general tone for the next week.

 

-The Research Team:

                     Dom Viera, Samantha Russell, Nicole Zinuhova, Michelle Milan

 

 

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Below is a recent comparison of our top trading strategies relative to BTC and ETH since the beginning of the current market cycle.

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-The 1.2 Labs Team

 

DISCLAIMERS

This newsletter is provided for educational and entertainment purposes only. Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC is the firm that distributes The Art of The Bubble products. The firm does not provide individually tailored investment advice and does not take a subscriber’s or anyone’s personal circumstances into consideration when discussing investments; nor is Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC registered as an investment adviser or broker-dealer in any jurisdiction.

You should expect no financial returns one way or another based on the statements contained herein. These points hold equally for any statements that could be attributed to The Art of The Bubble, 1.2 Labs, or any related business entities or personnel operating in association with Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC. If you decide to buy or invest in anything, then your returns and potential losses are your own. No statements about taxation are taxable advice and you are encouraged to consult your own tax professional. No statements about laws are legal advice and you are encouraged to consult your own professional legal counsel. You are finally also encouraged to do your own due diligence before investing in anything consulting with appropriate professionals as needed.

Benchmarks and Data Sources

All data not otherwise specified (or obvious from context) is taken from TradingView.com.

The cryptocurrency benchmark used is an equally weighted mix of BTC and ETH. While the benchmark for stocks used is the Nasdaq 100.

Conflicts of Interest

All contributors to this newsletter should be considered active investors. Because the strategies pursued are often quick, contributors may or may not own the stocks or coins discussed by the time of reading. However, readers should assume that any coins, stocks, or other items discussed are owned by the contributors for conflict of interest purposes.

Company policy prevents accepting any funds for the discussion of specific coins or stocks.

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