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The Macro Situation

Alfie (noun)

• the poorer cousin of Seeking Alpha;

• the excess returns earned on an investment above the benchmark return when adjusted for a comparison with your neighbor who has just become unemployed. 

                                             ― New Entry in the Updated Devil’s Dictionary

Experts are taking the recent data from last week's PPI and CPI seriously. The Fed’s intention to make one interest rate cut this year may be too little, too late.

• Recent retail sales data suggests consumer spending is slowing, and the unemployment rate has risen to 4%, its highest since January 2022. See, for instance, the Empire State’s manufacturing survey which has contracted for the 7th straight month.

• May’s CPI data showed a slower increase, hinting at a possible deceleration in the PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.

• Last week’s report noted that the jobless claims were astonishingly high (243,000). This week’s report is no slouch with 238,000. The worry is that a low job vacancy rate tends to correlate with high unemployment and a significantly weakening economy.

• New home construction is the lowest in 3 years, which can be a key indicator with respect to consumer appetite and the effects of having high interest rates for a prolonged period.

According to the Fed Watch tool, which tracks the prices of various futures contracts related to interest rates (particularly the federal funds rate), the chance for a rate cut in September is 59.5%.

Up to the week ending on June 14, 2024, the ANFCI has remained level at -0.53, which is a good sign for the investment climate.

Core Assets Update

Gold (2334.70) prices have been bolstered by political uncertainty in France. However, the close of markets on Friday saw a steep drop as investors weighed the course of the US economy and questions about the resumption of Chinese gold buying.

Crude Oil (80.59) has risen in anticipation of summer demand despite inventory surpluses.

The 10-year Treasury yield (4.257%) spiked early in the week after Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari indicated that the central bank may not cut rates until December. By the end of the week, the yield reflected price adjustments and a more steadied view.

                                             -Todd Mei, PhD and Sebastian Purcell, PhD

AI Sentiment Report

The following sentiment scores use AI to track sectors as leading indicators. (Lesson 4 of The Art of The Bubble covers the selection of lead indicators for bubble trades). The scores are most indicative for the next day of trading (a Monday), but they appear to set the general tone for the next week.

-The Research Team:

                     Dom Viera, Samantha Russell, Nicole Zinuhova, Michelle Milan

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Below is a recent comparison of our top trading strategies relative to BTC and ETH since the beginning of the current market cycle.

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DISCLAIMERS

This newsletter is provided for educational and entertainment purposes only. Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC is the firm that distributes The Art of The Bubble products. The firm does not provide individually tailored investment advice and does not take a subscriber’s or anyone’s personal circumstances into consideration when discussing investments; nor is Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC registered as an investment adviser or broker-dealer in any jurisdiction.

You should expect no financial returns one way or another based on the statements contained herein. These points hold equally for any statements that could be attributed to The Art of The Bubble, 1.2 Labs, or any related business entities or personnel operating in association with Robin Technologies and Analytics LLC. If you decide to buy or invest in anything, then your returns and potential losses are your own. No statements about taxation are taxable advice and you are encouraged to consult your own tax professional. No statements about laws are legal advice and you are encouraged to consult your own professional legal counsel. You are finally also encouraged to do your own due diligence before investing in anything consulting with appropriate professionals as needed.

Benchmarks and Data Sources

All data not otherwise specified (or obvious from context) is taken from TradingView.com.

The cryptocurrency benchmark used is an equally weighted mix of BTC and ETH. While the benchmark for stocks used is the Nasdaq 100.

Conflicts of Interest

All contributors to this newsletter should be considered active investors. Because the strategies pursued are often quick, contributors may or may not own the stocks or coins discussed by the time of reading. However, readers should assume that any coins, stocks, or other items discussed are owned by the contributors for conflict of interest purposes.

Company policy prevents accepting any funds for the discussion of specific coins or stocks.

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