State of the Market (06/16/24)

By Todd Mei PhD | State of the Market | 16 Jun 2024

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The Macro Situation

“Slow and steady wins the race” (adage)

  • the idea that a slow and persistent effort is better than a quick and sporadic one;

  • a model that works given the assumption of unlimited time;

  • the 2024 amendment to the Fed’s statutory mandate.

                                             ― New Entry in the Updated Devil’s Dictionary

Despite the meteorological forecasts for the summer, things seem to be cool and copacetic. Signs this week pointed to inflation moderating. It's the little things that count:

  • The May Consumer Price Index rose by 3.3 percent compared to the same period last year, which is less than the 3.4 percent increase predicted by economists and also a decrease from the April figures.

  • The Producer Price Index, which is a measure of wholesale prices, declined 0.2% in May compared to a 0.5% rise in April.

  • Jobless claims hit a 10-month high (242,000), which was 13,000 more than predicted.

But just to quell any market exuberance, the Fed indicated that there will most likely be only one rate cut this year.

According to the Fed Watch tool, which tracks the prices of various futures contracts related to interest rates (particularly the federal funds rate), the chance for a rate cut in September is 61.1%.

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Up to the week ending on June 7, 2024, the ANFCI has moved to -0.53, which is a -0.02 increase from the previous week and a good sign for the investment climate.

Core Assets Update

Gold (2348.40) spiked following the PPI numbers that indicated the economy might be slowing down. However, positive sentiment shifted in favor of the US dollar (105.52) by the end of the week.

Crude Oil (78.49) remains in a holding pattern before the official start of summer, when increased travel should push the price up. Looking at the big picture, the International Energy Agency issued its annual report, noting that an increase in US-led oil production could result in a supply surplus to the tune of 8 million barrels per day by 2030.

The 10-year Treasury yield (4.221%) slid this week (as its price rose) due to indications that inflation is cooling.

                                             -Todd Mei, PhD and Sebastian Purcell, PhD


AI Sentiment Report

The following sentiment scores use AI to track sectors as leading indicators. (Lesson 4 of The Art of The Bubble covers the selection of lead indicators for bubble trades). The scores are most indicative for the next day of trading (a Monday), but they appear to set the general tone for the next week.

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-The Research Team:

                     Dom Viera, Samantha Russell, Nicole Zinuhova, Michelle Milan



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Benchmarks and Data Sources

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The cryptocurrency benchmark used is an equally weighted mix of BTC and ETH. While the benchmark for stocks used is the Nasdaq 100.

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Todd Mei PhD
Todd Mei PhD

Todd is a former Associate Professor of Philosophy with over 16 years of research experience in the philosophy of work and economics. He is currently the lead researcher and writer for the Web3 consultancy group, 1.2 Labs.

State of the Market
State of the Market

Weekly reports on the state of the macroeconomy, stocks, and crypto compiled by the 1.2 Labs Research team.

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