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Recession ! Winter is Coming

By Snow Under Sun | SnowUnderSun | 10 Dec 2023


Nowadays, the entire cryptocurrency sector is in a " bull run " and people are happy with gains in a 1-month prolonged " Custer-like cavalry " green bars on graphics. On the other hand, survivability in crypto requires these major points; do not be annihilated in significants crashes and know when to retreat tactically in long campaign.

Everybody has hopes for 2024 but the dynamics of financial markets are not based on hopes. Crypto is a highly volatile market and non-crypto macro factors may effect crypto trends. Personally suffered many times from this in the past 9 years in crypto. Mike Hearn's letter affected the crypto but COVID-related global supply chain slowdown based on crude oil price contracts decline impacted more on crypto. 

CITI declared this week as 2024 may be in recession.  Citi informs investors as the recession can be expected to start at Q2 2024. Rapid increases in the  U.S policy interest rates to control the inflation may lead to a recession in the second quarter of 2024.

 

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Fitch Rating also stated in its Global Economic Outlook Report that the global economic growth rate will drop sharply next year to 2.1%. The report stated that a sharp slowdown, although not a recession, is expected in the US economy. The country's economy was estimated to grow by 2.4% this year, 1.2% next year and 1.4% in 2025. https://www.citigroup.com/global/news/press-release/2023/citi-global-wealth-releases-full-year-outlook-2024-slow-then-grow-investing-in-the-markets-big-reset

Moody's, stated that negative pressures are expected to increase on the outlook of global banks in 2024 due to the weakening of the global economy, defaulted loans and real estate sector positions in the USA and Europe. https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4145314/moodys-downgrades-us-government-debt-outlook-negative

Basel III Endgame, regulaton may affect the profitability of banks, bank managers think that the regulation will reduce loans and weaken bank balance sheets at a time when the sector needs more flexibility. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-bank-capital-what-is-the-basel-iii-endgame/

The article can be expanded with the recent Binance situation and its huge penalty and also may expand with the well-known ETF case of finance giant Blackrock which has the power to control all global financial instruments with its 13+ trillion USD assets where they may prefer to buy Bitcoin at much cheaper level for its ETF ( with arranged timing of SEC approval ) but I keep this article limited to impacts of 2-year high policy interest rates on potential recession in 2024.

Under these spotlights, I choose tactical withdrawal from crypto after 9 years. Keep only %5 of it in a reliable exchange.  Bybit is my favorite exchange because of its reliability, easy-to-use UI and up to $5025 bonus to new members with below link. https://www.bybit.com/invite?ref=NJOQYN

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Snow Under Sun
Snow Under Sun

A westerner in Thailand. Previously,13 years Sales Executive in a Forbes 500 company and 6 years HR executive in a multinational company. Crypto trader since 2015.


SnowUnderSun
SnowUnderSun

A westerner in Thailand. Crypto trader since 2015. Previously Sales Executive in a forbes 500 company.

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