In 2024, several companies published results of their experiments with error corrections in quantum systems. It was reported, that for the first time in over 30 years of research, they observed that quantum chips with error correction algorithms and with over 100 qubits can reduce errors with a faster rate than a rate with which these errors are created. In other words, it was demonstrated that practical quantum chips can be scaled and manufactured when the number of qubits is greater than 100 (see [1-2]). In December 2024, Google announced the 105 qubit quantum chip “Willow” (see [3] ). A week later, China announced the 105 qubit quantum chip “Zuchongzhi 3.0” (see [4] ).

In January 2025, it was published that the Riverlane’s team demonstrated the ability, in certain platforms, to decode up to 1,057 qubits with unprecedented efficiency (see [5]). It seems, that in this year we will see quantum chips with over 1,000 error free qubits on the public market. It is almost tenfold rate of increase in error free qubits. If this rate of advancements in QCs will not decrease then we should expect that in 2026 we will see quantum chips with over 10,000 error free qubits, in 2027 - quantum chips with over 100,000 error free qubits and in 2028 - quantum chips with over 1,000,000 error free qubits.

Neven’s Law proposed by Hartmut Neven, director of Google’s Quantum AI Lab, provides a theory on the potential improvement capabilities of quantum computers that states: “Quantum computing power is improving at a doubly exponential growth compared to conventional computing.” This growth means that quantum computing power is growing by powers of powers of two [2^2 (4), 2^4 (16), 2^8 (256)]. See [6].

If this rate of advancements in QCs will increase (as Neven’s Law predicts) then QCs will reach ‘MegaQuOp’ (one million error free quantum operations) before 2028 (most likely in 2026 or 2027).

The recent breakthrough of Microsoft with Majorana 1 chip point out that 1 mln. Qubits chip will be available very soon. See [7].

References:

1. https://spectrum.ieee.org/reversible-computing

2. https://thequantuminsider.com/2024/11/23/a-closer-look-into-the-microsoft-atom-computing-logical-qubit-study/

3. https://blog.google/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip/

4. https://quantumcomputingreport.com/chinese-scientists-describe-the-105-qubit-zuchongzhi-3-0-a-competitor-to-googles-willow/

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3291413/chinese-scientists-say-zuchongzhi-30-quantum-computer-powerful-googles-willow

5. https://thequantuminsider.com/2025/01/07/riverlane-reports-new-decoder-tech-sets-new-standard-in-quantum-error-correction/

6. https://www.berkeleynucleonics.com/january-11th-2022-moore%E2%80%99s-law-vs-quantum-computing-it-comparing-apples-and-oranges

7. https://www.theverge.com/news/614205/microsoft-quantum-computing-majorana-1-processor