Idk about you but im stoked for another Kc super bowl run. 3 apperances in the last 4 years.🥰 With a win it could be my most "and few" profitable maneuvers in quite a while lol. Put $150 down on the chiefs to win it all back when my neighboring state legalized sports gambling. A little before the start of the season. Luckily it happened right around all the hoopla and basic fud over how the loss of Tyrek Hill and a flush of young defenders paired with the toughest schedule as well as potentially division, yada yada, etc.. etc..
It's ironic how similar things can be. Like now in the bear and then when armchair speculators had little to nothing to go off of. Its often wise to trust the things you know and understand. Luckily as a lifelong fan ive had front row tickets to the chiefs front office and consistency. The kc gm and hc have been dominating for majority of this decade. Hc Andy Reid especially. His record for games played after a bye week seem like such a guarantee it makes a golden cross seem akin to a coinflip. It's not but man it'd be hard to bet against 27-4 over the course of 32 years.
Justifications aside my reasoning is this. Say you believe kc or phi is gonna win. Great but since 90% of mvps are qbs it's more profitable to pick the qb of the winning team as mvp than it is the team to win while the risk remains about the same. Certainly a smidgen less as anything can happen but.. I mean the odds are the odds but imo the discrepancy is more a myth so for taking about the same chance but receiving a higher reward. Loss is always the same everything.
For kc I love em enough gamble a little. I feel people are overly enamored with the recency bias and slightly skewed statistics that comes with Philadelphia. Don't get me wrong they're a really good team, possibly great but woefully untested. Schedule comparisons are night in day different in terms of teams faced. So noting the relatively similar numbers defensively with a more potent kc offense and staff. Plus I'm a fanboy so I'm taking Mahomes.
Theres plenty more evidence for my speculation but i doubt anyone reads these. I will however if one requests anything in particular. Or Hit me with some knowledge below if you see things differently.
I'll hopefully be gambling the winnings on chainlink and cardano 😅 after setting asside that 30% tax of course😑 Or I'll lose it all. Who knows but clearly don't take my word for it. This is comically amature at best but this is what I'm tinkering with this week.
Should check out the game sunday. Watch the franchise start building a dynasty🤞