I do not want to be a scaremonger or to create any sense of fatalistic fear in anybody, but it is noticeable, certainly in Warsaw, attempt by the authorities to raise public awareness and readiness in the event of war with Russia. 

We have been led to believe that aside from drones, Russian military forces are pretty much depleted. Strategically we have been told that, aside from the Baltic states, that the most likely target for a Russian attack is likely to be what is often called the Sulwaki Gap / Isthmus. While the gap also covers Lithuanian territory and any conflict will involve both, it is unlikely to exclude Poland with the Russians only going through Lithuania.

"The Suwalki Gap"

The reason for this is twofold.

• First and foremost it will simply create a land bridge that will connect the isolated Russian enclave / oblast of Kaliningrad with Russia-friendly Belarus and effectively connect it with Mother Russia. This in principle is not to dissimilar to Russia's breakout from Crimea and rush along the coast, through Mariupol in 2022 to form a land bridge and ensure Crimea was not isolated. 
• Secondly, and strategically, it will isolate the Baltic states from any land support and make them more vulnerable in the ensuing war against Nato.

Meanwhile back in Poland and up to date, in recent months, certainly here in Warsaw the air raid warning systems have been sounding with increasing frequency as they are tested. An SMS alert is always sent before so to avoid panic and while this is reassuring, it would also be the opportunity for Russia to strike and catch us unawares. Also in the last few days, and what was actually the prompt for this post a new series of posters have appeared in the stairwell of our flat (and presumably not just ours), warning of what to do in the event of an incoming attack. The main advice seems to be to seek shelter underground or if you can't then keep away from glass, so if you are caught in your flat avoid rooms with windows so hide somewhere "mid-flat" eg the hallway. bathroom or even the toilet.

The Posters in Our StairWell - Images are clear even if you don't speak Polish!

Somehow it just feels a lot closer. There was an interesting comment in the after-show discussion following Sky TV's recent "The Wargame" show (a role-play situation with real politicians and experts) in which there is an escalation between Russia and Britain leads to Russian strikes on the British mainland after Trump's America abandons us. Fortunately our European allies don't!

"We are not at war with Russia, but we are certainly not at peace with them either"

And I think this fully describes the situation in Poland. We are preparing for the worst, which could mean Trump abandoning us and I can only hope that like in the Wargame simulation Poland will not be abandoned and the mistakes of 1939 be repeated.

Frankly, the cause of the tension is ridiculous and circular. Europe is re-arming in the light of Russian aggression and especially since the invasion of Ukraine and it is all down to Putin. In the meantime he and his puppy Lavrov are claiming that Russia has no territorial claims to Europe nor any dispute with Europe and it is indeed Europe and especially "belligerent" states like Poland and Britain who are the ones seeking war. Putin and Lavrov don't get it, it's self defence, not aggression. Russia's track record in recent years speaks for itself.

If you don't believe me there are plenty of bots generating posts "We don't want war it is Nato", "Nato is already fighting us", "We have no interest in conflict with Europe" & "The US is taking a correctly cautious line to restore detente" and just check your social media. 

I never have nor ever will be an advocate for Russian aggression and yet my Facebook is full of this s**t. The closest I have ever come to seeing the Russian position is the idea of a multi-polar world which is no longer dominated nor dictated to by US hegemony. However just as Germany - the primary aggressor in WW2 - has rebuilt relations with Poland (having created the most destruction anywhere in the world in terms of percentages) the way forward is through building friendship and mutuality. Multi-polarism cannot be reliably created through aggression, but through trust.

Of course, and the final comment is that Russia does have an existential clause in which they can use nuclear weapons if they feel that their national survival is threatened.

As always stay safe and well my friends