Publication in Russian on the Zen blog
https://dzen.ru/a/ZpD19_Z5K3avYGdD
A post about faith in democracy and free markets or command economy. If you believe that the economy is a "plug and play" mechanism because Russian projects and Moscow can put economic pressure on developing countries and outpace free people and free markets, you should read this post to the end.
In this publication we will talk about a major economic crisis in Russia, which has lasted for 25 years. And about a caricature of the economy, when a lie, if you start believing it, no longer seems like a lie. And this is what we will talk about from the point of view of economics. I am not sure that the government really believes that you can achieve something by visiting allies in North Korea, China, India. And also Hungary and other small countries. And Russia continues to escalate the situation, using meetings with these countries, because everyone who is watching this in the West will be scared: "oh, no, they are making alliances", "they are going to import some goods", "shake hands, hug for the sake of cheap oil". But the economy does not work like that.
Nobel laureate in economics Milton Friedman explains how to make a pencil, it can take 100,000, or maybe a million people, about the complexity of creating something in the world of international exchange. Now we are not talking about pencils, we are talking about complex technological components for machines and computers that have to be adapted to the Russian model of what will be used in Russia. So you can’t just shake hands and then next month these things will start coming to Russia. There are so many factors to create value and so many factors that complicate the production process of capital formation. You can’t just shake hands and expect that everything will happen automatically. But why do they do this? They do it to deceive and scare the West, bluffing and creating an image of a developing economy. Or the government does it because they themselves believe in this lie. But the economy does not work like that in a free market, the economy works differently, the economy is extremely complex. Just like in any company, you can’t just press one button to carry out the entire production process, and it’s not enough to just shake hands. Nevertheless, Russia again and again organizes meetings and round tables, creating a high resonance, trying to scare the West. But this is a bluff that does not lead to any tangible long-term impact. The country lacks people, machines and tools, there is almost no industry that makes tool parts. And none of the existing allies can import anything but low-quality goods. Look at Ukraine's allies - Scandinavia, all the Baltics, they are strong allies, and remember Milton's explanation of pencil production and all the complexities of the economy. In Russia, it is simply a scenario of a dictator who teams up with other dictators, and then the media makes a big deal out of it and shows it all to people who do not understand the complexities of logistics in a capitalist system. Do not believe the bluff coming from politicians, because it is just a bluff out of nothing, and it is about to burst on its own, like a balloon.
73 years have passed, and Russians are still being fed noodles that the dollar is doomed and America will soon fall apart)))
I keep waiting for someone to publish a statement from the Russian Central Bank saying something like "We can't control the cost of living with interest rates anymore... we've done all we can." And yet I keep seeing news about how Russia is growing and how good its economy is. That doesn't make sense if wages are rising and the cost of living is rising so much that wages can't keep up with the cost of living. Meanwhile, China and India are driving Russia crazy. Russia can't get China to support Trans-Siberian Railway 2, and India refuses to pay in rubles.
Don't think that India, China or North Korea really like Russia. They are just taking advantage of the situation, because once cooperation with Russia stops being economically profitable, it will stop. The Soviet-Afghan war was a major factor in the collapse of the Soviet Union, and many believe that the war in Ukraine will do the same to Russia. And if not, Russia will never be able to replenish the weapons stockpiles it had before this war, especially in terms of infantry armor and tanks, not to mention the glorious Black Sea Fleet.....
Perhaps the government is desperate. Desperate people do desperate things. Under normal circumstances, Russia would not buy ammunition from North Korea. The ammunition supplied by North Korea turned out to be of poor quality. Russia made a bilateral agreement with India - oil for rupees. Russia had to tell the Indians that they would no longer accept rupees as payment for their oil. Because the Russian government discovered that the rupee is not a valuable currency in international trade. This is a caricature show. As they say, it was bad at first, and then it got worse.
An interesting historical observation is that no country in modern history has survived a total war for more than 6 years without outside help. Russia is now entering its second year. Ukraine is entering its third. Ukraine is getting economic aid. Who knows what Russia is getting while their national infrastructure is falling apart. People will say America was in WWII, but America was only in it for 2.5 years and their assets weren't bombed. Russia and Britain would have collapsed by the end of 1943 and 1941 respectively if it weren't for Lend-Lease, and Germany had been in operation since 1938 and their economies were struggling by the time the war started. Japan went to war with the US because their economy was already on the verge of collapse because they had been at war since 1937 and before that they had been at war for about 6 years and they thought all they had to do was take a bunch of resources to fix it. But they were bombed to dust.
How long can Russia keep its economy afloat? Russia is burning through its military resources at an accelerated rate. When the government fails to maintain the appearance of stability, the ruble will collapse and drag the economy down with it. If Putin fails to turn the tide this fall, the country could be on the brink of panic by January.
As a thinking person, I cannot guarantee that my thoughts are correct. But it helps to get food for thought, and this publication is excellent food for thought. Thought is an important weapon against mass control. Thought and wisdom to all.
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Publication in Russian on the Zen blog
https://dzen.ru/a/ZpD19_Z5K3avYGdD
