Zen blog post in Russian
https://dzen.ru/a/aeu9Jyxs8V1sLkZS

When ratings drop, it is necessary to declare everyone around as enemies and "rally" the population against fictional threats.…

Putin's rating is falling, and even the state-owned VTsIOM is recording this. According to official sociology, the most loyal of all, the approval of the Russian president has dropped to its lowest levels since February 2022. But it's not just about the numbers. And the fact is that the economy is collapsing, the elites are cracking, and public criticism of the government has ceased to be unthinkable.

On April 24, 2026, VTsIOM published the latest survey data on April 13-19: approval of Putin's work — 65.6%, trust in the president — 71.0%. The drop since the beginning of 2026 was 8.4 percentage points from February's 74.0%. April's decline accelerated: 70,1% — 67,8% — 66,7% — 65,6% in just a month. This is the lowest approval rate that VTSIOM has recorded since the start of full-scale hostilities.

But something else is more important. As Vedomosti wrote and RBC sources confirmed, the presidential administration recommended that the state media not refer to VTsIOM data, but use FOM polls where the figures are higher. Why? Because even the "own" sociology has stopped giving the necessary answers. When two sociologies are in power, it is no longer an accident. If VTsIOM gives 65.6%, then the FOM gives about 76%. There is always a difference in methodology, but a difference of 10 percentage points is a reality gap. In today's Russia, one center is considered inconvenient, while the other is considered "correct." If the government recommends against taking data from VTsIOM, it means that the problem is recognized at the very top.

There are three things that can be fixed at the moment. The decline in indicators in 2026 is a reality, confirmed by official data. It is consistent in nature, and does not look like a one-time deviation. And it occurs after a long period of abnormally high values. This is not yet a collapse in the rating, but it is no longer stability. It is precisely such shifts — slow, gradual, but steady — that usually prove to be the most significant in the long run.

By contrast, independent Levada polls and leaks give figures below 30%!!! The real rating is pus from an abscess that oozes despite censorship. Putin's sociology has documented what everyone can see: the empire is crumbling. The donkey rating is not enough — the whole decomposing substance has settled. Separately on Levada, who refers to the polls- the Levada Center gives a double picture. Formal "approval" is up to ~80%, but real trust is about ~40%. The gap is almost two times the difference between "default" consent and real support. That is why "approval" indicators are more often used in the public agenda: they look taller. Whereas stricter measurements with open-ended questions show that the core of personal trust is noticeably weaker. In total, this is about 40%, taking into account other independent sources - all 30. You need to look under the hood of the survey methodology to understand what is happening. Core support is a sociological term that does not mean "everyone who responded positively." This is an electorate that will follow the leader in any situation, even at the cost of personal well-being, even when everything is bad, even when the economy is collapsing and enemies are all around. The problem with 80% is when they tell you "Christ is risen" and you answer "truly he is risen," not because you believe in it, but because it is customary to answer this way, it is so safe, you have no interest in understanding it. This is 80%, when they answer - yes, I support, leave me alone, and so on. Now, as for 40%, these are questions that are without hints, which really identify those who support, and this forms the core of support. That is, the question is not presented as "do you support Putin", but as "which of the politicians do you support". As a result, according to Levada polls, 42% are independently named. This is the core of support. And there is a third point besides the above. When they adhere to the thesis "The government is bad, but the other one will be even worse," in fact, this is not support. This is disgust combined with acceptance in the absence of alternatives. As a result, the core of support is no more than 40%. In addition, we are considering the dynamics of the rating decline, the rating has fallen by 10 percent since the beginning of the year and has become the lowest as before February 2022. And this whole picture is based on the results of surveys conducted by official or accurate sociologists, that is, they do not even talk about real indicators that are "wrong" and "inconvenient" for the authorities.

The rating does not fall in a vacuum. The economy is collapsing in numbers that even the Kremlin cannot deny. Inflation eats into wallets: 20% for food, bread at 200 rubles per kilogram, a ruble under 100. The people are starving, and Putin is talking about stability. The rating settled synchronously with the price tags — VTsIOM is embarrassed to say, but the connection is obvious. The official "observed inflation", that is, what people really feel in stores, rose to 15.6% in March 2026. Putin signed his own "austerity reform" in February — and a few weeks later it was quietly abandoned, inflating military spending.

The budget shock is as follows: the federal budget deficit for the first quarter of 2026 amounted to 4.6 trillion rubles. This is more than the annual planned deficit for the whole of 2026. Oil and gas revenues fell by 45.4% in January–March, while GDP declined by 1.8% in January–February, as Putin himself acknowledged.

Nobody canceled the military disgrace either. Half a million losses in the "SVO", failures near Avdiivka, mobilization 2.0 on the horizon. Even Kremlin sociologists record "fatigue," a euphemism for the rage of mothers and widows. The rating eats not only soldiers, but also the loyalty of patriots.

And digital genocide? Blocking Telegram and hunting for VPNs is a direct blow to young people and urbanites. Six weeks of decline are right against the backdrop of these blackouts. Putin cut off the people from the truth — and cut off 9% of his rating. Even in the regions there are riots: Dagestan, miners, tariffs.

The elites have stopped believing in stability. Putin's declining rating is not just about the people, it's about the fear within the system itself. Gubernatoropad: contrary to the Kremlin's promises to avoid turbulence before the elections, the replacement of the heads of regions went at an accelerated pace. Decisions are made not according to the logic of efficiency, but according to the logic of clans. The conflict between the military and civilians: the system cannot integrate the military into the civilian vertical, civilians are afraid of the security forces, the center is balancing, but the conflict is only escalating. Arrests, leaks of compromising material, sudden resignations — the elite no longer knows who is next. When loyalty ceases to be a guarantee of security, the leader's rating ceases to be an icon. He becomes just a number that is being combed.

Criticism of the government has become public. This has never happened before. Gennady Zyuganov warned in the State Duma about "crisis shocks" and publicly compared the situation with 1917, which is an extremely harsh wording for the Duma tribune. Victoria Bonya, neither a politician nor an oppositionist, recorded a video about the "deep gap between government and society" — it gained tens of millions of views, and Peskov commented on it. And pro-war Z-bloggers, who sang hosanna to the Kremlin's line yesterday, are now complaining about drone strikes on Russian refineries, acknowledging problems at the front and a lack of funding. Criticism still bypasses Putin's figure, but the very fact that systemic politicians, millionaires and military personnel have started talking about problems out loud is a shift.

What's next? Not a collapse, but a growth stoppage. The system won't crash tomorrow, but it has stopped playing. She's holding on. Sociology, even the most loyal, is falling, the economy is in recession with a record deficit, the elites are in search of a safe position, the public field has ceased to be dead—sterile. Putin's rating is falling even according to VTsIOM. Even Putin's sociology is already recording the decline. And when the government forbids its own media to refer to its own sociologist, it actually admits that there is a problem.

Not "enemies" or "foreign agents," but the state-owned VTSIOM has shown minimal approval since 2022. The economy broke through the bottom faster than officials managed to rewrite the forecast. The elites are not afraid of protests, but of each other. And, yes, this publication is not about the revolution. She says that cracks have appeared even in the well—established vertical, and everyone from the Kremlin to Z-bloggers can see them.

However, we all perfectly remember, understand and know about information yeast — it's the good old Kremlin hocus-pocus that they keep up their sleeve. It's about propaganda: a full-power TV machine, panic-stricken victories at the front, the distribution of 10,000 crumbs for war children, patriotic frenzy with the mobilization of enthusiasts. In 2014, after the Crimea, the rating soared by 10-15%, and in 2022, after the start of the "SVO", it also increased. But in 2026, it won't be so easy anymore - people are tired of soap. 24/7 TV bombing: "Putin saved the ruble!", "NATO is on its knees!". And then VTsIOM will immediately show a plus of 5-7% among the zomboyashchik — grandmothers and summer residents will be the first to bite. Plus small handouts: pension indexation by 8% against 20% inflation, benefits for "swashbucklers," plus fake grain export records. And horror stories: "Ukraine has fallen!", "The West is taking revenge with VPN blocks!". Fear unites — the rating will jump to 72-75% in a month.

Nevertheless, the six weeks of decline according to VTsIOM are not an accident, but a crack. Yeast will inflate the bubble, but it will burst: the economy is falling, losses are under half a million, Telegram is blocked. Independent polls show about 30% — you can't fool reality. In 2024, 79% were based on oil and hope, now they are based on fear and lies. The Kremlin will get its yeast — TV shows and handouts will be returned 72%. But it's like a bubble: it will burst with a new blackout or mobilization. This empire cannot be saved by leaps and bounds. Only by capitulation.

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