Zen blog post in Russian
https://dzen.ru/a/af21RSIefiV4hqKS

"Even an enemy wouldn't do that!"

An economy in ruins: why we have become a country of couriers and how to break this circle.

This publication is based on an analysis of data from 2026, reports by RAS Academician Robert Nigmatulin, and current macroeconomic statistics. This is an attempt to understand why the "country of engineers" turns into the "country of delivery".

An economy on the rocks: How a country of engineers has learned to live without a future.
"Even the enemy won't do that!" — this phrase of RAS academician Robert Nigmatulin, thrown in the face of the economic bloc at the forum in April 2026, became an epitaph for thirty years of experimentation on the country. It took us a long time to build the "building" of the new economy, but eventually we got a dormitory for security guards and a logistics hub for couriers.

While the world is competing in quantum computing, our main innovation is to reduce burger delivery time. Let's honestly look at how we got into this trap and why the old recipes no longer work.

1. Where did the engineers disappear to?
The problem is not with couriers — it's honest work. The tragedy is that shipping has become a "haven" for lost minds. In the 1990s, millions worked in mechanical engineering, and today there are hundreds of thousands. When the plant closes, the engineer does not evaporate. He's going to be a taxi driver. This is the "otkhodnichestvo" of the 21st century — the forced archaization of labor for the sake of survival.

We've lost the complexity. Mechanical engineering requires "long-term" money and stability, which the volatile raw materials model could not provide. Finally:

- Loss of chains: It is easier to buy ready-made in China than to pay for your machine for years.

- Internal emigration: Our best brains don't always go abroad. They often "leave" for marketing or sales. When a scientist in a laboratory gets paid less than a driver in a health insurance company, a scientific shortage becomes a sentence.

2. Science as a luxury and the Chinese verdict.
Nigmatulin hits the numbers: about 0.4% of GDP is allocated to civil science in Russia (although 1% was promised). At the same time, technology leaders — China, the United States, and Korea — spend 3-4.5%.

The comparison with China is hitting the gut today. In 30 years, they have gone from a "factory of cheap dolls" to leaders in chips and quanta. Today, the average salary in Beijing (200-260 thousand rubles in equivalent) is a reality that people in the regions of Russia are afraid to even dream about. While we were pumping oil, they were investing in humans. We relied on the bowels, they relied on the intellect.

3. The tax boa constrictor and fiscal absurdity.
Nigmatulin calls our tax system "completely worthless." And 2026 proved it.:

- 22% VAT: An inflationary blow that stifles small businesses (SMEs).

- USN thresholds: Lowering the limits forces successful companies to either split up or close down.

- Burden on the poor: In Russia, the share of personal income tax in the budget is twice as low as in the world (15% versus 30%), but it is mainly paid by the middle class, while the super-rich consolidate resources.

4. The recipe for salvation: Is it possible to break the circle?
The academician does not propose cosmetic repairs, but an overhaul.:

- Freedom for small businesses: Completely exempt SMEs from taxes. Give people free rein and they will create production themselves, leaving the security to the workshops.

- Super income tax: Progressive personal income tax of up to 30-40% for the "super rich". This is not a "take and divide", it is a way to make capital work for the country, not for yachts.

- Salary surge: The share of salaries in GDP should grow to 60%. This is the only way to restore prestige to an engineer.

The main paradox is: Why is the vertical stalling?
Here we come to the most painful part. The system recognizes the failure, but tries to treat it with "enhanced control." This is a "rut" trap.

For real growth, independent courts, decentralization, and freedom of search are needed. But these things are organically hostile to the rigid vertical. It is easier for a vertical to manage a country of couriers than a society of independent professionals. The courier is not rebelling — he is busy with the route. The engineer asks questions.

Bottom line: A country without a future?
We are facing an existential choice: to preserve the usual model of government at the cost of the final degradation of the economy, or to take the risk and start building a complex, modern country.

The problem is that the choice seems to have already been made for the system. Since 2026, the nuts have been tightened where freedom needs to be given. We are watching "running on the spot": GDP is growing on paper, while capacity utilization is falling.

The real degradation does not begin when the last factory closes. It begins when we get used to considering it the norm. And until society's response is heard louder, the "lost decades" risk becoming our permanent reality.

What do you think: do we have a chance to restore prestige to our brains before we finally turn into a service appendage of our neighbors?

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