Monero: weekly market analysis (from 20 December to 26 December 2019 on BTC / XMR pair)
Last Thursday I wrote in our usual weekly analysis on monero that there would be an R2 test in the 0.0062BTC area and this is basically what happened; centered forecast, therefore, but it wasn't too difficult. Today things have become more complex because, as has become typical for this currency, XMR has started to move sideways; the feeling is that at this point there must be a rebound, the fear is that this rebound will prove weak and will not be able to exceed 0.0069BTC. If this were the case, that is, if we were to witness a banal retracement on the upside, it would be a bad signal for monero and we would find ourselves, within a few weeks, commenting on considerably lower prices than the current ones; however, there is no need to bandage your head right now, let's take a look at the graphs instead and try to understand what the most likely scenario may be from here to the next few days.
BTC / XMR it's time for the bulls to find a way to react
As mentioned in recent days, there was the R2 test that, in any case, we expected; on 30D chart we focus on the long bearish period that characterized monero, the MACD instead shows how the hour of a reversal has also come. What could be expected, from here to the opening of the next candle (which will take place in early January), is that the bulls will bring the price close to the pivot point. Moving on to the 7D chart we see that this is the second week in which the parabolic SAR is bearish, however the feeling is that the bears' push is becoming weak and the order book also shows a certain balance between those who want to buy and those who want to sell. A little optimism is given by the 1D graph, observing which, as mentioned, the feeling of an imminent rebound is obtained; always on 1D graph we can easily identify three resistances, all fairly close to each other in the area of 0.00655BTC (last maximum touched on Tuesday), 0.0069BTC (last broken support) and 0.0076BTC (previous maximum touched in mid-November). What we can do is play on the breaks of these levels, an excellent strategy for traders with a greater risk appetite, or wait patiently for the possible break of 0.0076BTC share before going long if we want to minimize the risk.
Weekly forecast
In principle, all the major altcoins are forming very similar patterns and the feeling is that in the coming days the market will see some profit as all these coins start to bounce. Considering that we are coming from long bearish phases, it is natural for us to believe that the first three months of 2020 could be characterized by an altcoin bull run (it would also be now), which should lose strength as we approach bitcoin halving and traders will sell their coins to go long on BTC. The situation is however very delicate and operating now on the alt in general, and in particular on monero, could prove to be a bad idea; however, at the moment I am optimistic and I am also bullish regarding XMR. In fact, I believe that a rebound to at least 0.0071BTC is the most probable scenario at the moment, if then it can break this level or it will be rejected by the bears this is still early to say.
Please note: this post is not intended to provide in any way financial advice relating to how to invest your money but it is purely educational
