Bitcoin: weekly market analysis (from 14 January to 20 January 2020 on USDT / BTC pair)

I continue to be pessimistic about bitcoin in the short term and I fear that from now until the end of the month, many may start to see things like me; so let's immediately take a look at the charts so we can understand together where all my pessimism comes from.

USDT / BTC requires patience and caution

As always, we start our analysis from the 30D chart but this time we leave out the analysis of the pivot points and focus on the ichimoku clouds; over the course of this week we will see the opening of the new candle of the month, which will almost certainly open above the pivot point, the problem however is that we will also have a break in the clouds.

Since bitcoin has not managed to move back above $ 10 thousand, therefore, what will happen is that with the new candle of the month the price will return under the ichimoku clouds, projecting us into a decidedly bearish scenario.

This type of reading, however, clashes with what we see if we move to the weekly time frame; here, in fact, joining the last highs we immediately notice that there has been a nice break in the resistance and also the heavy dump that we saw yesterday takes on the characteristics of a trivial retracement.

If we had to stick only to what we see on the weekly time frame, in other words, what happened yesterday we should read it as the most classic pull back; at this moment on 7D chart we see the price stuck in the cloud and the delay line that peeped over the cloud, while for the 1D chart the scenario appears more markedly bullish and both the price and the delay line are both well above the clouds.

To clear our ideas let's take a look at the exponential moving averages at 20, 50 and 100 periods; what we see in this case is that the EMA20 has already cut both the EMA50 and the EMA100 upward on 1D time frame, while on the weekly chart there has never been a bearish crossing after the last bull run of the first half of 2019 and the price has rebounded strongly on the EMA100 and now seems clearly oriented to return to a bullish cycle.

Weekly forecast

At this moment, reading which direction bitcoin will take in the next few weeks is very complicated, however, despite my intuition suggesting that I remain cautious, I believe that at this moment the most probable scenario sees a rise in the price as a minimum to reach $ 11500; before this happens, however, we could witness the continuing bearish tension that started yesterday up to a price range between $ 7700 and $ 8000.

For those who were considering buying the advice as far as I am concerned, it is still waiting a little while, for all the others, however, the advice is to keep still, even if the discounts should continue in the next few days.

 The ideal, therefore, is to take another week to calmly evaluate the situation, in this way we will be able to both observe the opening of the new candle of the month and verify which turn things will take immediately, with the hope that the things, from here to a week, may appear clearer than they appear now.

Please note: this post is not intended to provide in any way financial advice related to how to invest your money but it is purely educational.