It is important to understand that halving occurs when the price of Bitcoin has to be the most stable, i.e. not to drop, as many miners log out. The hash and the price depend on each other. Consequently, after the third reduction by half, the price did not collapse and this could be partly due to the wave of massive purchases from Grayscale.

Offer and demand

What happens after halving is that inefficient miners shut down their mining equipment and the hashrate goes down. After the first two halves, the price went down, however, considering the price of Bitcoin since halving [10-12%], the opposite is happening. Grayscale alone purchased 18,910 BTC and the coins extracted since then are 12,337 BTC , that is, Grayscale actually purchased 153% of the total supply. The CTB surplus could come from these ineffective miners who break even or are at a loss.

Besides Grayscale, there are Square and other players that need to be factored into the supply-demand equation. This will reveal that the auction bids are more than the demand. In addition, 60% of all bitcoins have not moved on the blockchain for at least 1 year and this indicates a hodling. The last time this happened was in early 2016, at the start of the bull run that pushed Bitcoin to $ 20,000.

Source: Twitter

But looking at the above terms in the supply-demand equation, the demand side is much larger than the supply side, indicating an immediate uptrend. However, this is not a linear equation and there are many moving parts. Miners to date have been a significant part of the selling pressure for Bitcoin . After halving, this has increased and will continue until the next difficulty adjustments [a few weeks] or at least until the miners' reserves are used up.

So why hasn't the price soared yet?

Technically, the price does not collapse despite the largest decline hashrate and miners have closed their farms. Moreover, since the miners of Black Thursday have suffered this shock and that speculators are net. According to CMS Holdings, the support is 1. Asymmetric cost and flatness and 2. Funding rate, which has been largely negative, that is, the shorts pay a long time. This indicates that long nets will eventually push the price of Bitcoin up and especially when other players start to accumulate BTC . In addition, the retail market is also largely bullish with 13,000 BTC positions expecting the market to rise.

CMS Holdings, opposed to this uptrend, mentioned that "money will win in the long run" and added,

"... There is a certain risk of being the most covered company in a rally, you actually become the poorest, you also have difficulty exploding when the hash weakens and you can, in fact, find yourself at short term… There is little future supply you can move forward. “