Bitcoin long term presentation
Bitcoin opened 2018 with a high of $ 13,290 and closed the year at around $ 3,800. This represents an overall loss of 72%. In comparison, the Dow opened the year at $ 24,824 and closed at around $ 23,300. This represents an overall loss of 6.2% for traditional investors.
However, 2019 is another story as bitcoin opened it to $ 3,700 but has climbed nearly 60% (to date) and is currently hovering around $ 5,900.
If we are honest, bitcoin is still, for the most part, a favorite toy of experienced and less experienced speculators, but the number of manufacturers is also booming. The surrounding ecosystem and infrastructure is building at a blinding pace as the brand's presence and recognition reach unprecedented heights, especially among the younger generations.
Take a look at some of the best Bitcoin robots that can make you money while you sleep.
The old establishment, mostly made up of old white people, still yells at bitcoin , throws blows, insults and calls for a ban (best proof of their blatant lack of understanding of how bitcoin works ). Fortunately, biology is on the side of bitcoin - the old ruling class and the archaic technologies on which they cling are disappearing, giving way to new ideas and technologies.
Bitcoin already has real estate in the minds of future decision makers and wealth holders and it is only a matter of knowing when, and not of will, bitcoin enters the traditional financial world.
Let's take a look at the fundamental forces that will propel bitcoin up in 2019.
We can divide the fundamental principles into two categories: protocol improvements and the construction of ecosystems / infrastructures.
Freelance journalist Ian Edwards has written a great article on bitcoin improvements that you can read here . Here is an extract from the most important developments. It should be noted that prolific bitcoin developer Pieter Wuille on May 6 unveiled two Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs) that offer plans that could prove fundamental for a possible upgrade to the cryptocurrency.
Wuille's first BIP describes a "new type of SegWit version 1 release, with spending rules based on Taproot, Schnorr signatures and Merkle branches".
While the second describes "the semantics of the initial script system under bip-taproot".
Below you will find the most important protocol developments we are working on at the moment, with no specific deadline when they will be implemented.
MAST, short for Merkelized Abstract Syntax Trees, proposes to improve Bitcoin by changing the way smart contracts are written in the blockchain. Indeed, it allows to divide smart contracts into their individual parts. This has several advantages in terms of confidentiality, transaction size and enabling larger smart contracts. There is no set timetable for its implementation.
Schnorr signatures, named after their inventor, Claus-Peter Schnorr, are a proposal to replace Bitcoin's current digital signature algorithm (ECDSA) with a more efficient algorithm. The first way to improve the bitcoin protocol is to allow the aggregation of several transaction signatures into a single signature.
This would reduce the size of transactions in these types of transactions and could reduce the use of Bitcoin network storage and bandwidth by transactions by about 25% . Second, Schnorr signatures would increase the confidentiality of multisig transactions by aggregating the signatures in those transactions, thus masking the original signatures.
Bulletins promise to improve Bitcoin's privacy by masking amounts of transactions, while leaving the addresses of the sender and recipient public. They are already implemented on Monero while the implementation of Bitcoin is still pending and according to Wuille “” far too premature to propose their inclusion in Bitcoin . ”
Confidential transactions (CT) would keep the amounts of Bitcoin transactions visible only to participants in the transaction.
The side chains are intended to allow other block chains to connect to the Bitcoin network using a separate piece linked to bitcoin . This means that each side chain is a separate block chain which can have different rules from the main Bitcoin network while staying connected to it. There are currently several sidechain proposals under development: Liquid Network, RSK and Drivechain.
Liquid is a private side chain, so there is some control over who can access it. The advantages of Liquid are that it allows instant transactions, confidentiality (confidential transactions are integrated) and the possibility for users to hold Liquid funds outside of an exchange.
RSK is a side chain that plans to bring smart contract functionality and near-instant payments to the bitcoin network . Like Liquid, it uses a federated system, with depositories that follow the movement of bitcoin between the RSK network and the main Bitcoin network . To do this, it uses a token called SBTC (smart bitcoin ), which is linked to BTC in a 1: 1 ratio.
Drivechain plans to allow multiple blockchains to connect to the main Bitcoin network . Like RSK, the Drivechain side chains built can be secured by Bitcoin miners using a mine fusion. Unlike RSK, Drivechain is flexible and developers can create side chains to suit desired specifications, such as larger block sizes or privacy features.
Mimblewimble is a proposal for a Bitcoin blockchain that claims to offer higher security than the current Bitcoin protocol , improved scalability, another type of cryptographic security and an ASIC-resistant mining algorithm to encourage decentralization of mining.
Of course, there is the highly controversial Lightning Network project, the long-awaited Layer 2 scaling solution that is raising hopes among bitcoiners and drawing a lot of conflict and detriment from other camps, mainly bitcoin forks like BCH and BSV .
Lightning Network, experienced significant growth last year. The first Lightning implementation developed by Lightning Labs was launched in beta in March 2018.
In just over a year since it went live on the main network, there are now almost 4,300 nodes with active channels and around 38,000 channels in total. The faster growth of the knot in the past three months could be linked to the release of the Casa Lightning Node, which made running a knot much easier for a regular non-technical user.
It should also be noted that the average number of channels per node has increased steadily over the past year. In addition, node and global network capacity has increased in the past year to reach the current 1,079 BTCs (over $ 6 million) enclosed in nodes and channels.
Ecosystem and infrastructure
Bitmain's big fall
Bitmain, on the other hand, suffered huge losses under the leadership of Jihan Wu and Micree Zhan. They had followed the technological direction of Roger Ver to convert Bitcoin to Bitcoin Cash. In August 2017, Bitcoin Cash successfully issued from Bitcoin and Bitmain had bet big on this range and this technology adding a huge amount of hashing power behind the Bitcoin Cash range . Bitmain had also planned an IPO in early 2018. Bitcoin Cash was again forked, the IPO was refused and, with $ 400 million in losses, Jihan Wu and Micree Zhan are leaving Bitmain.
Institutional money enters Bitcoin
- Last year, reports have revealed that George Soros and the Rockefeller family began to take positions in the new class of cryptographic assets, according to Bloomberg. The family's $ 26 billion Soros Fund Management was planning to trade digital assets. Venrock, the VC arm of the Rockefeller family, decided to take a different approach by partnering with Coinfund to help entrepreneurs start blockchain businesses.
- In late April, Charlie Lee, the creator of litecoin , revealed that he had rep era of trading pairs Bitcoin and litecoin on its portal TD Ameritrade Think or Swim. While some people put this news aside as a joke or a glitch, other users have confirmed that they have also seen " BTC / USD" appear on their accounts on TD Ameritrade. TD Ameritrade has more than 11 million customer accounts with over $ 1 trillion in assets. The American broker already offers Bitcoin futures trading .
- Circle, Coinbase , BitGo, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and other large financial institutions have already launched crypto-centric custody solutions or plan to offer short-term crypto custody begin to serve increasing numbers of institutional investors in the coming month.
- In July, Blackrock - the world's largest exchange traded fund (ETF) - announced that it had launched a task force to assess the investment potential in Bitcoin .
- Goldman Sachs made progress towards adopting cryptography throughout the year. Thus, in April, cryptocurrency trader Justin Schmidt was hired by the company in response to customer interest in the space.
- The following month, Rana Yared, an executive with Goldman Sachs, confirmed that the company intended to buy and sell Bitcoin - after concluding that the preeminent cryptocurrency was "not fraud".
Bakkt - which will facilitate bitcoin futures trading for institutional investors - electrified the crypto community in August 2018, when it announced its imminent launch.
Bakkt will guard and discover the prices of bitcoin - which is regulated as a commodity by the CFTC - in a manner designed to be free from market manipulation and fraud. Bakkt was scheduled to be commissioned in January 2019, but the deployment has been postponed several times due to regulatory delays. There is currently no launch date set for the new platform.
Fidelity launches institutional platform for Bitcoin and Ethereum
Fidelity Investments creates an independent company dedicated to the supply of cryptocurrencies to institutional investors.
Called Fidelity Digital Assets, the Boston-based limited liability company will provide enterprise custody solutions, a cryptocurrency trading execution platform and institutional 24-hour, seven-day-a-week advisory services. to align with the permanent blockchain trading cycle.
Fidelity Investments provides financial services for $ 7.2 trillion in client assets and provides clearing, custody and investment services to 13,000 consulting firms and institutional brokers.
According to cryptocurrency research group Diar, institutional trade in cryptocurrencies on traditional exchanges has declined in volume due to the BTC's hosting in the main outfit portfolios this year. Rather, there has been a shift to OTC trading.
During the hours of OTC market, trading volume BTC increased by 20%, while volumes of Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) Grayscale have decreased by 35% in 2017 compared to 2018 for the same period. It seems that institutional traders are heading towards higher-liquidity physical BTC markets .
The approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) has been sought by a number of industry players in recent years.
Several crypto companies, such as Gemini and Bitwise, have applied for a crypto ETF, but so far regulators have not approved any. However, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission may change its position. The agency is now more concerned with the fight against fraud on platforms that offer ETFs rather than on the ETFs themselves. We believe the SEC may soon approve a crypto ETF.
Universities dip their toes
In addition to large investors and individual funders, universities like Harvard, Yale and Stanford have all invested in cryptocurrency funds. An undisclosed source revealed that endowments from the respective universities have invested tens of millions of dollars in at least one crypto fund.
It is no secret that one of the obstacles to the entry of institutional investors into the crypto space is the need for an appropriate regulatory framework; hedge funds cannot simply invest their clients' funds in the same free and easy way as a retail investor.
Regulation is not a crypto killer. The regulations will provide the clarity essential to investors, large and small, as well as to the entities issuing the coins themselves. People can start to focus on the best way to leverage these assets to diversify portfolios, transfer money overseas and improve business models, instead of looking over their shoulders for fear of hit the SEC. With increased regulation, increased adoption will follow, particularly among those for whom due diligence is paramount. Financial institutions will be able to confidently offer these investment options to their clients, pension funds can incorporate cryptocurrencies into their long-term holdings - the applications are endless.
Jack Dorsey is the CEO of Twitter and has shown support for Bitcoin ( BTC ) and the Lightning Network.
Steve Wozniak is known for co-founding Apple, one of the largest companies in the world. Wozniak said Bitcoin would become the global currency.
There is another Bitcoin bull on the market, Peter Thiel. The venture capitalist has already bet on Bitcoin and the possibility of it becoming a safe haven of the gold type. In a conversation with CNBC, he said it would be Bitcoin long and neutral with everything else.
Tim Draper, a recognized venture capitalist, has been involved in the crypto market for a very long time. He invested in Bitcoin when it was traded under $ 1,000 and he also made very optimistic predictions for the future of this digital asset.
Ashton Kutcher has been a staunch defender of Bitcoin and has invested in a sports betting blockchain, UnikoinGold, with billionaire Mark Cuban.
Joe Rogan said he was fascinated by the idea, but that he hadn't given all of his attention to bitcoin , but thought it could really shake up the global economy.
Price action and market changes
Quick historical overview
Here is a brief history of the ups and downs of bitcoin prices , as compiled by colleagues from U.today:
- At the start of its journey, Bitcoin was worth less than $ 1.
- The first peak was $ 30 in July 2011, followed by a decline to $ 4.
- In mid-2013, Bitcoin crossed the price of $ 200 but fell back to $ 120.
- An important point was the end of 2013, when the price rose to $ 1,100. However, the next 2 years have been a solid drop for Bitcoin . The background was a $ 240 mark.
- The turning point came at the end of 2015, then the stable growth of the coin began. This lasted until the end of 2017, when the price hit an all-time high of $ 20,000.
- All of 2018 was marked by a tremendous fall. Any analysis and forecast turned out to be wrong. Bitcoin hit the low of $ 3,200.
- In 2019, a new growth cycle began and the price again exceeded $ 5,000.
Since the start of 2019, bitcoin has clearly been the most profitable asset class, as reported by Binance Research.
Market forecast for Bitcoin price:
Everyone and their mother have made a Bitcoin prediction for this year and the years to come. Everyone's opinion shouldn't concern us, but some forecasts have more value than others, so we will choose the most relevant ones below.
Let's take a look at some of these Bitcoin predictions .
John McAfee Bitcoin Price Prediction - $ 1 million by 2020
John McAfee, the eccentric founder of popular security software and a controversial Bitcoin follower , predicted that Bitcoin will reach $ 1 million by 2020. He has also added his own touch to the set of prediction bets to eat his male parts if he failed. He then relativized his bet.
The founder of Woobull.com predicts a coming bearish momentum in the price of Bitcoin as the second quarter of 2019 approaches. Willy expects the price of Bitcoin to bottom out in the coming months before entering an accumulation period for the rest of the year.
“All of our blockchain indicators remain bearish. NVT, NVTS, MVRV, BNM, NVM. They are experimental but have made very correct calls to date, even when traditional indicators on the stock market indicated the opposite. "- Willy Woo
The billionaire made his predictions on the price of Bitcoin at the end of last year, declaring that the coin could reach highs of $ 10,000 at the end of March (missed on this one) and cross its ATH price of $ 20,000. here the end of the year. The founder of Galaxy Digital believes that the institutional investment of companies like Fidelity and Bakkt will be the key to soaring BTC prices .
Sonny Singh Bitcoin Price Prediction - $ 15-20,000 through Thanksgiving
Sonny Singh, Bitpay's chief commercial officer commented on the future of Bitcoin calling Bitcoin an "800 pound gorilla, because it has access to the most notable" network effect "of all decentralized networks. He firmly believes that there is a high probability that BTC will reach $ 15,000 to $ 20,000 by Thanksgiving, 2019, explaining that the probability of a crypto ETF and an influx of funds for startups is high.
Sam Doctor from Fundstrat and Tom Lee Bitcoin Price Prediction
Tom Lee, co-founder and research manager of Fundstrat, believes that the break-even point of extracting 1 BTC is directly linked to the price of cryptocurrency.
Tom Lee said that the BTC fair value is much higher than the current price. The current fair value is between $ 13,800 and $ 14,800, which he says could increase to $ 150,000 per coin as soon as Bitcoin wallets account for seven percent of the 4.5 billion Visa holders.
Doctor Sam, a Fundsrat Lee and analyst have predicted that by 2019, BTC could reach no less than 36 000 $, with a probability of $ 64 000 and a maximum of $ 20 000 at the lowest.
Zhao Dong Bitcoin Price Prediction
Zhao Dong, one of the biggest Bitcoin OTC traders in China and an influencer recently predicted that Bitcoin could reach $ 50,000 by 2021. He reiterated that this is the best time to invest in BTC and said that you could get 100-200% return. more than 3 years if you invest now.
Anthony Pompliano Bitcoin Price Prediction
In a recent tweet, Anthony Pompliano, founder of Morgan Creek, said that Bitcoin was going nowhere. He said the BTC could go down to $ 3000, after which it will continue to bullish from 2019. He said there was no reason to panic over the price drop because the fundamentals of Bitcoin are getting stronger.
Murad Mahmudov, host of “On The Record”, estimates that Bitcoin will hit a new record by the end of 2020. A prominent crypto personality and analyst Tone Vays generally agreed in an interview with this statement, adding that there were 40% chance of seeing a new record in 2020. This percentage increases to 45% for 2021.
Fran Strajnar: $ 200,000
Fran Strajnar, CEO of crypto research firm Brave New Coin, expects the price of Bitcoin to reach $ 200,000 by January 1, 2020. In an interview with Inverse in 2018, Strajnar said that “ adoption rates continue to be fairly stable, and adoption rates are highly correlated to price, so therefore, unless for some reason people just stop continuing to adopt Bitcoin , we should see $ 200,000 by Bitcoin no later than January 1, 2020. “
Wheatley model: $ 2,352.03
According to a Forbes article, the Wheatley model predicts that Bitcoin will trade at a rather bearish amount of $ 2,352.03 in 2020. The article explains that the Wheatley model focuses only on the demand for Bitcoin and also notes that Wheatly and researchers have given a total market capitalization much lower in bitcoin . that the actual ceiling is ($ 20 billion is the figure used in their estimation model). The slow growth in demand for Bitcoin explains why its price forecast for 2020 is so low.
Hayes model: $ 55,931.60
The Hayes model, on the other hand, predicts a much higher trading price for the BTC in 2020. Indeed, although the Wheatley model focuses on Bitcoin demand , the Hayes model focuses on its supply. Bitcoin's supply is expected to slow as it approaches its supply ceiling, which should push up prices.
The current sentiment in the Bitcoin community is positive and technical improvements as well as overall ecosystem growth herald a bright future in the future. Technical indicators signal a bullish race ahead and with more people understanding the unique features and benefits of bitcoin compared to the traditional system. Although past performance is not a good indicator of the future price, the fundamentals underlying Bitcoin may well see it soar in the near future to 20,000 USD crossing its record price.