It’s time for my weekly look at the Bitcoin (BTC) price action for the week and try to make some sense of it all, and maybe make a prediction or two. It’s been an interesting week so far, so we’ll see how accurate I can be. I also do a weekly video on Saturday’s over on my YouTube channel, where you can get my end of week overview of a few of the larger cryptos.
For the usual disclosure, I am not a financial advisor, I don’t even work in finance at all. My day job is as a telecommunications software engineer. Treat everything you read here as some educational resources and not financial advice.
Weekly Chart Analysis
Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that we have had a fair bit of price movement this week already, and as well see in the next section, most of that has been within the last day. We can see what looks like a bullish hammer candle forming, but we are far from the close of this candle, so we can’t really read much into that.
We are still below both the 20 and 50 week moving averages, but still above the 200, but that is barely significant, as that indicator has only come alive in the last few weeks as we got past 200 weeks of historical data to use.
The weekly chart is not really telling me much beyond that, but really the weekly chart hardly ever speaks to me, it just makes me feel warm and fuzzy starting my analysis off by looking at it.
Daily Chart Analysis
Taking a look at the daily chart is where things start showing what’s up, and that is a very significant bounce off just below $30,000. Today’s candle is definitely bullish and engulfing, it’s swallowed up all the down trend from the past few days, which is always nice to see.
I’m not ready to pop the cork on the champagne and call the bulls back in charge however, far from it. I’m seeing this more as a good solid test of the $30,000 support line, and has made me think it’s less likely that we see further major dump offs. I’m still keeping that on the table though, and we may still see $25,000 Bitcoin before things start pumping way up, but each time we come up off $30,000, it makes it less an inevitability and more just a possibility.
We do see a little price pressure at the 20 day moving average, which pushed the price back a little bit, which gave us some solid resistance back on 12 July when we hit that line the last time. as well as back around 4 July where it also prevented us from pushing past, so we’ll have to see if we can secure ourselves above that price or not.
Bitcoin Dominance is mainly plateaued a little over the 45% mark, so alts are for the most part just following lockstep with the big guy, which is what we saw with a lot of the bigger alts today who all got a bit of a pump up when Bitcoin did. Probably even a little more so since the dominance factor bled out a little bit today.
For the alt-hunters, seeing the plateau could be a good sign that alts are going to start picking up a little bit, but we won’t really get a good feel for how that is going to play out until the market starts pumping back up for real.
I need to hedge my prediction a bit here, because it will depend on if we can take the 20 day moving average or not, which is currently in play, so I have to predict off both ways that plays out.
If we take the 20 day moving average line, I would expect to see the price climb back up to somewhere around the $36,500 line before we see a reversal back down to the bottom part of the range, and hopefully bounce again at the $30,000 price.
If we do not take that line, that this is where I think we see a bit more pain, and the price get below $30,000 and stay there, potentially as low as $25,000, maybe even lower, but I’m going to keep my bottom point at $25,000.
I’m still pegging early to mid August before we start seeing any good bull momentum start getting back into the market, so I’m expecting more sideways, maybe even a little down, price action until than, and the fight for the 20 day moving average will point which of those is more likely.
Socials And Other Links
I also post a weekly price update video every Saturday over on my YouTube channel, where I will be discussing the weekly price action for some of the major cryptos. You can also sign up for my newsletter which I send out every Friday with news and whatnot from the crypto space, delivered right to your inbox!
You can also find links to resources such as research and news sites over at this link.
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