Welcome back to NFL Picks!
WEEK 6 SUMMARY
10 out of 14!
Technically, this is a 11 for 14 week. But as we all witnessed, Josh Allen couldn't sneak the ball through the Titans DL and that ended up as a loss for them. One of those make-or-break moments for teams and guys like me, who just wanna be able to pick the right team to win.
It wasn't just bad beats though. We've correctly called ARI and JAX to win as underdogs, which is definitely reassuring.
And overall accuracy, by the way, keeps improving!!!
"So, what's the treat?", you ask.
Well, I have registered to participate in this amazing FREE initiative called NFL PREDICTION GAME
In the website, you are asked to correcly pick the weekly winners and attribute to all game a score based on how certain you are of a given result to come out true in the end. All it requires of you is that you login with your Twitter credentials. The website does not post anything on your behavior, so no need to worry about your picks making you look bad in front of your friends LOL.
In my first week playing the game, I've managed to "beat the market", as it is called when you make more accurate decisions than the average participant and earn more points due to that. Check it out!
(UGH, THAT GOAL-LINE STAND BY THE TITANS!!!)
As you can see, since you can pinpoint how sure/unsure you feel about a game outcome, it's a much better tool to leverage your knowledge about the league, games, players and loosely compete with other Football Fanatics like you.
From now on, I'll be posting my "sliding predictions" with a screenshot from the website, along with my traditional predictions.
Hope you guys enjoy!
TOTALS: 14 picks — 10 correct/4 incorrect (71% accuracy)
BALANCE: $140 placed - $154,8 as return = $14,8
SEASON TOTALS: 94 picks — 59 correct/35 incorrect (63% accuracy)
SEASON BALANCE: $940 placed - $856,7 as return =-$83,3
NOW LET'S MOVE ON TO WEEK 7!
Again, all picks are linked with a virtual $10 bet in each of them, and odds according to Betfair.com.
DISCLAIMER: I'm not sponsored by Betfair.com in any way. This will only be added as a reference to win probability in each game. It's all for fun!
BE GENEROUS WITH THE TIPS — TO YOURSELF
COMMENTS ARE ALWATS APPRECIATED!
WEEK 7 PICKS
- DEN @ CLE - Winner: DEN (Odds: 2 - Possible payout: $20 - Possible profit: $10 100%)
- Tough meat to chew on right out of the gate. Baker Mayfield is out. So are both RB1 and RB2 for CLE in this one. And on top of that, the starting OTs are coming into the game with injuries on their own. Sure, Teddy-B also has a lingering injury as of today, but his weapons and his backup can at least keep things at a decent level. I've been wrong before with Denver, and I know Keenum will make the most out of this opportunity, but this should be a one-dimensional game, with the lack of a run game putting too much pressure on Case. I'm taking the Broncos here, being fully aware that it is not going to be pretty either way.
- CIN @ BAL - Winner: BAL (Odds: 1.34 - Possible payout: $13.4 - Possible profit: $3.4 34%)
- Ravens have been silencing their doubters week after week. They'll face a much improved Bengals team in a division game. Barring any key injury setbacks during the game or any complacency, they should take this, no problem.
- CAR @ NYG - Winner: CAR (Odds: 1.6 - Possible payout: $16 - Possible profit: $6 60%)
- What was once the Cinderella story at the start of the season took a turn to the worst. Panthers can't seem to close games out anymore. Plus, that defense experienced a major regression. On the other side, we'll see a Giants team that is crushing records when it comes to... injuries. That OL is beyond banged up. Should be a game for the Panthers DL to get back on track.
- WAS @ GB - Winner: GB (Odds: 1.2 - Possible payout: $12 - Possible profit: $2 20%)
- Packers are on fire! Any way you look at this matchup, GB seems to have an edge. Easy call.
- KC @ TEN - Winner: KC (Odds: 1.38 - Possible payout: $13.8 - Possible profit: $3.8 38%)
- Now THIS should be a saucy one. Huge last-second goal-line stand for the Titans on Monday, which should have the morale sky high for their platoon. Looking at data, it jumps the eye the fact that both offenses seem to be reasonably efficient in moving the ball. It just so happens that this is a passing league now, and that is more correlated with points scored than the running approach is. KC has more weapons in that department and I see the Chiefs winning simply because TEN would not be able to keep up with the scoring pace.
- ATL @ MIA - Winner: ATL (Odds: 1.65 - Possible payout: $16.5 - Possible profit: $6.5 65%)
- The battle of the teams that can't run the ball to save their lives! Haha! Just too much happening right now with the QB situation in Miami. Is Tua back? Are they trading for Watson? Have they given up on Tua because of that? How is Tua's head with all that? Falcons have at least managed to find some offensive groove in the last 3 games, which is a good sign. I believe that should be a key factor for their victory.
- NYJ @ NE - Winner: NE (Odds: 1.28 - Possible payout: $2.8 - Possible profit: $12.8 28%)
- Count on a lot of exquisite blitzes thrown at Wilson by Belichick! These two teams aren't too far from each other when you look at the recent data, but there is still something meaningful in terms of coaching ability and discipline on the Pats side that should be the deciding factor in this one. Tough to see the Jets stealing a win in Foxboro.
- DET @ LAR - Winner: LAR (Odds: 1.07 - Possible payout: $10.7 - Possible profit: $0.7 7%)
- Jared Goff revenge game? Naaaah.
- PHI @ LVR - Winner: LVR (Odds: 1.5 - Possible payout: $15 - Possible profit: $5 50%)
- Man, I wish the Raiders would just make up their minds about who they are this season. They have the pieces, they have a decent system going on, but they never fail to surprise — and some of those surprises are not very nice. Eagles inability to stop offenses on 3rd down worries me. But this shouldn't be a blowout by any means. I expect a run-heavy game from Philly, since that seems to be the achilles heel of this Vegas team. I'm expecting the Raiders to clear most of the long list that is now their injury report and win by a hair. This is a very risky game, though.
- CHI @ TB - Winner: TB (Odds: 1.12 - Possible payout: $11.2 - Possible profit: $1.2 12%)
- Even if the Bears play way above expectations, I don't see that being enough to beat Tampa on the road.
- HOU @ ARI - Winner: ARI (Odds: 1.04 - Possible payout: $10.4 - Possible profit: $0.4 4%)
- What a massive show of strength from the Cardinals. Away from home and without most of the coaching staff. I'm picking the hot to stay hot.
- IND @ SF - Winner: IND (Odds: 2.5 - Possible payout: $25 - Possible profit: $15 150%)
- Definitely my big upset call this week. Both teams are plagued with minor and major injuries, with key starters likely staying out of this one. SF is simply not in a good place: both QBs are injured in non-neglectable manners, Kittle is on IR, and their LT is also banged up. They'll be facing a team that's dominating in the trenches, running all over people and not allowing anyone to run on them. This should put extra pressure on a still recovering QB — whoever that ends up being. A hungry DL against a QB in that situation is a recipe for disaster. Hope whoever takes over behind center doesn't reaggravate any health issues. I'm taking the Colts on the road.
- NO @ SEA - Winner: NO (Odds: 1.38 - Possible payout: $13.8 - Possible profit: $3.8 38%)
- It is still Geno Smith's show, right? Look, this is not going to be an easy game for either of those teams. I look at data and I see a Saints team with their actual starting QB and a team that converts above league average on 3rd down — nearly 50%, by the way. They also look like the better team passing and defending against the pass. Trips to Seattle always have something weird in them, especially when it's a national televised game (yes, I'm looking at you, Fail Mary!). I'll take a Saints win against a team that can't have its star back soon enough.
How I feel about the Prediction Game Slider this week?