BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, in an issue of BitMEX’s Crypto Trader Digest published on April 9, said that Bitcoin could “absolutely” touch $3000 - while also saying that he stands by his end of 2020 target of $20,000. Hayes spoke of the change in supply and demand in economies across the world, in a tone that wasn’t the least bit flattering - but he did offer some hope about the medium term future.
A large part of the post focused on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy and various asset classes. Noting the reliance on the US Dollar, which underpins much of the world’s economy, Hayes said,
The only country which can credibly enact the appropriate amount of fiscal stimulus to weather the storm is the US. No other country has the option to depreciate their currency to the degree necessary to generate economic activity at a level which honours the credit in the system and promises to their plebes.
He also states that the fiction of the US Dollar is coming to an end and that a very different future is upon us - and this is where Bitcoin comes in.
To Hayes, we are in “Act One of a global rebalancing” and buying the dip in asset classes will be at our peril as “the search for inflation hedges will begin in earnest.”
The fallout will apply to all asset classes, and even the US stock market will experience turmoil. This will test Bitcoin, says Hayes, but his “end of 2020 price target remains $20,000.”
Bitcoin will be owned unlevered. Could the price retest $3,000, absolutely. As the SPX rolls over and tests 2,000 expect all asset classes to puke again. As violent as the Q1 collapse in asset values was, we have almost 100 years of imbalances to unwind the ancien regime.
Hayes has been right about his targets before. On March 25 2019, in a Crypto Trader Digest issue titled 'The Road to $10K', Hayes stated that Bitcoin would hit the $10K mark again in 2019 - at the time Bitcoin was at $4000 - and he was right, Bitcoin hit $10K on June 23 the same year. At the time, he also said that $20,000 would be recovery that market aspires to.