Hurricane

When USA catches a cold, the World catches the flu

By Keith Thuerk | New to Crypto's? | 2 Jul 2022


When USA catches a cold, the World catches the flu

Status from USA

  • Research shows that 61% of U.S. consumers were living paycheck to paycheck in April 2022, marking a 9 percentage point increase from 52% in April 2021, meaning that approximately three in five U.S. consumers devote nearly all of their salaries to expenses with little to nothing left over at the end of the month.
    • 36% Of Americans Making $250,000 Are Living Paycheck To Paycheck - How is this even possible?
    • US manufacturing grew at slowest pace in 2-years - didn't know the US produced anything, anymore?
    • 83% Of Americans Cut Back On Spending As Economy Careens Towards Crisis
    • 93% Of Working Americans Have A "Side Hustle", 51% Are Considering It Due To Inflation, New Study Finds
    • Investors 'Clock Out' Of Rolex Bull Market As Demand Cools
  • Food inflation just getting started due to Inflation procession and lag indicators
    • KFC swaps cabbage for lettuce as lettuce is too expensive
  • US 15 & 30-year mortgage rates double in < 6-months
    • Luxury-Homes Sales Plunge 18% Amid Interest Rate Shock
    • The Hamptons Summer Rental Market Is Collapsing 
  • US Rent Costs Surge To Record Highs As Americans Expect Inflation To Get Worse $2000/mo
    • Prepare For A Tidal Wave Of Evictions – 8.4M can’t pay rent
  • Inflation Is Causing More Americans To Be Nervous About Their Savings
    • Credit Numbers: Everyone Maxing Out Their Credit Card Ahead Of The Recession – wonder no more how bad this will be!
    • $5 gas in 20 states already – AAA says prepare for higher prices
    • Nearly $6/G diesel fuel is impacting shipping and delivery systems nationally
  • Soaring Inflation and Crashing Rates Are Sparking Trucking's "Great Purge"
  • Shipping Costs Soar 82,000% Amid Global Supply Chain Chaos After Ukraine
  • US Airlines are cutting flights weekly standing passengers (we can't even fly planes anymore?)
  • Corporate layoffs are starting to roll in and I expect them to go deep!
Net Result US Equities Results are in: and First-Half FUBAR: Stocks Worst In 60 Years, Bonds & Bitcoin Worst Ever

Two huge US investment houses predict Economic Hurricane is headed towards USA - Batten down everything folks

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US Fed level (Recall the US Fed has several regions which independently report in on economic data)

  • Atlanta Fed Slashes Q2 GDP To -2.1% which is a change from 2-weeks ago where Atlanta Fed Slashes Q2 GDP Forecast To Zero Confirming Technical Recession
  • Dallas Fed Plunges As Respondents Unleash Unprecedented Slam down Of "Disastrous" Biden Administration

    When easy credit and stimulus move out of play the real economy is revealed, and in our case the true face is an ugly one!  

 

Current state from around the world (Inflation data from April and May of 2022)

  • PIIGS
    • Portugal - Inflation Rate Surges to record 53.9%
    • Italy - Inflation Rate Surges to nearly 26%
    • Ireland - Inflation Rate 7.8%
    • Greece- Inflation Rate Surges to record 33%
    • Spain - Inflation Rate 10%
  • Outside the PIIGS realm
    • Austria - 8.7%
    • Estonia - 19%
    • France - Inflation Rate 5.4% (France seems to be the outlier with the lowest inflation reported)
    • Germany -  Inflation Rate 7.8%
    • Netherlands - Inflation Rate 11.2%
    • UK Inflation Rate 9%
  • Middle East Region
    • Lebanon - Inflation Rate Surges to 211%
    • Iran - Inflation Rate 52.5% food consumption is dropping due to higher prices.
    • Turkey - striving for rapid de-dollarization as Inflation tops 73%
  • Ukraine War Zone
    • Cities wiped off the map, attacks on civilian shelters and mass transport,
    • Ukraine Suspended All Gas, Coal & Fuel Oil Exports to Meet Internal Demand
    • Inflation Rate from April 13% (I can imagine it is running much hotter but not being released)
  • Africa (Think Arab Spring nations from early 2010's) 
    • Bahrain  - Inflation Rate 4.50%
    • Egypt - Inflation Rate 13.50%
    • Libya - Inflation Rate 31.60%
    • Syria - - Inflation Rate 105%
    • Tunisia - Inflation Rate 7.8%
    • Yemen - Inflation Rate 59.6%
    • Zimbabwe - Inflation Rate 30.7% (just since they are always highlighted due to fiat currency I threw them in too)
  • South East Asia
    • Australia - Inflation Rate 5.1%
    • China - Inflation Rate 2.2%
    • India - Inflation Rate 7.7%
    • Japan - Inflation Rate 2.5%
    • Indonesia - Inflation Rate 3.5%
    • Malaysia - Inflation Rate 23.90%
    • New Zealand - Inflation Rate Surges to 30-year high of 6.9%
    • Philippines - Inflation Rate 5.5%
    • Sir Lanka - Ran out of Gasoline supplies, Food shortages and riots in the streets
    • Vietnam - Inflation Rate 3.36%
  • Central and South America
    • Argentina - Inflation Rate 51.4%
    • Brazil - Inflation Rate Surges to 26-year high of 12.3%
    • Chile - Inflation Rate 11.5%
    • Colombia - Inflation Rate Surges to 21-year high of 9.2%
    • Costa Rica - Inflation Rate 3.3%
    • El Salvador - Inflation Rate 7.48% and BTW just picked up another 80 BTC while you were sleeping.
    • Panama - Inflation Rate 4.22%
    • Venezuela - Inflation rate 2,279% (this is NOT a typo)

Why do I point all this inflation out?  The current BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations are pondering an idea of a common currency with backing from commodities such as Gold. Perhaps an allocation of 33% of Gold, harks back to early 1900 era. Recall the old rule - he who has the Gold makes the rules! Perhaps they pivot from BRIC to BRIICs? China does it morph to Brazil, Russia, India, Iran and China to attempt to bring together all the world and isolate the USA, EU & Australia?  Why? Well I don't know perhaps the world is tired of the USA acting like an old drunken hag!!

Why is this important? BRICS have a population of 3.2B while the G7 nations have a population of 777M. The world is pivoting and I have strange tingling feeling that the West will be left out!!!

As the world continues to wake up to the fact that the USA $ is not stable nor a beacon of hope they will DE dollarize to whatever they see fit! At times selecting wrong and others correctly, the Globalized Western world is unraveling at breakneck speed and will cause all sorts of calamity. 

Summary - Are you the only one that believes the Fed speak they are engineering a soft landing for the economy? Are you keen to what is going on outside the western nations? 

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Keith Thuerk
Keith Thuerk

Currently learning about Crypto's and DeFi to combat the Inflationary Tidal wave coming our way!


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