The rise in raw material prices is due to the crude oil market and shrinking supply. Many sectors worldwide, including transportation, automotive, chemicals, and agriculture, rely on oil and natural gas to operate. Automobile manufacturers, in particular, are heavily reliant on crude oil for the production of synthetic rubber and plastic parts. Therefore, there is a growing belief that rising oil prices could increase material costs globally by up to 25%. These price increases are also affecting chip manufacturers. The continuous rise in energy prices is driving up costs in semiconductor production, which is directly linked to many sectors from consumer electronics to aerospace and defense. Currently, most semiconductor-producing countries in Asia import energy products from the Middle East. High energy prices suggest that the semiconductor market, already under pressure due to memory chip shortages, may be further impacted by another variable that could increase costs. Significant energy and petrochemical producers operating in the region include Saudi Arabia and a German chemical producer.

Helium plays a critical role in many important industries, including aerospace, defense, medical technology, and semiconductor manufacturing. Used in chip manufacturing processes, particularly in cooling and cleaning stages, helium stands out as a crucial input. Qatar, which accounts for approximately one-third of the global supply, is one of the largest producers in this field. Recently, helium prices have increased by over 40% due to the impact of conflicts, and developments in the Middle East are jeopardizing a small but vital link in the complex supply chain of chip manufacturing. These tensions can restrict access to helium reserves that constitute a significant portion of the world. In the Middle East, Qatar, in particular, plays a critical role, single-handedly supplying approximately one-third of global helium production. This gas is an indispensable input in the production of chips, which form the basis of artificial intelligence technologies. However, conflicts in the region are disrupting natural gas production and, consequently, the helium obtained from it, as well as hindering the critical shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. Indeed, Qatar alone accounts for a significant portion of global helium production (approximately 190 million cubic meters) with its production of around 63 million cubic meters in 2025.

There is currently an aluminum supply crisis directly impacting vehicle production. A mid-size passenger car contains over 200 kilograms of aluminum across its body structure, covers, suspension components, powertrain castings, and thermal management systems. Therefore, every pressing plant, every casting line, and every body assembly process globally is dependent, to varying degrees, on the supply of primary aluminum. However, this supply chain appears severely fragmented today. While Gulf countries account for approximately 9% of global primary aluminum production, excluding China, which Western and Japanese producers cannot supply on a significant scale in the short term, this figure rises to over 20%. Meanwhile, Bahrain, which operates the world's largest single-location aluminum smelting plant with an annual capacity of 1.6 million tons, declared force majeure due to its inability to ship through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed since early March, and reduced its production by 19%. Another joint venture based in Qatar decided on a controlled production halt due to natural gas shortages following Iranian attacks on Qatari energy infrastructure. The combined annual production capacity of these two facilities is approximately 570,000 tons, but production has either completely stopped or been significantly reduced.

Production disruptions and interruptions in logistics and transportation processes are creating significant pressure on the automotive sector, particularly on subcontractors and suppliers. Furthermore, the fact that many intermediate products in the supply chain depend on critical routes through the Middle East, such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, exacerbates this impact. Following more than six weeks of conflict, we will see whether the ceasefire will further strain this fragile structure and continue its devastating impact, especially on energy markets.