There is so much talk about renewable energy that there is a perception that the green future has already arrived. Nations, businesses and even ordinary consumers seem convinced that the world is on its way to abandoning oil completely. But Exxon Mobil, the world’s largest publicly traded oil company, has come up with a surprise. They predict that even if every new car sold by 2035 were electric, the world would consume 85 million barrels of oil per day by 2050 (the same as in 2010).

Yes, you got it! Exxon is not alone in this. Even BP, known for all its green energy ambitions, expects oil demand to peak by 2025, but expects 75 million barrels of oil per day by mid-century. So why isn’t oil consumption ending any time soon? Especially with more and more electric vehicles on the road.

The point is that road and air transportation are part of the story. Battery cars can be used. But think about airplanes, cargo ships and heavy industries like steel and cement. These sectors are hard to electrify. For example, a Boeing 747 burns 30,000 gallons of jet fuel in a 10-hour flight. But consider running it on a battery. It would have to be so big and heavy that the plane might not even be able to take off. The same goes for cargo ships. These giants burn tons of fuel every day. But having powerful batteries to propel them across oceans is still a distant dream. While hydrogen and biofuels are being researched, they are far from mainstream. Companies like Airbus are working on hydrogen-powered aircraft, but we are talking about prototype stages. The shipping industry is also eyeing alternatives like hydrogen, ammonia, and electricity, but full-scale adoption has yet to happen.

Also, oil is not just fuel. You see it in plastics, chemicals, and almost every product we use on a daily basis. So moving away from oil means redesigning entire industries, and that takes time. Then there is the digital revolution, which we think is clean and futuristic. But artificial intelligence (AI) and digital services are consuming energy faster than we realize. Yes! By 2030, power consumption from data centers could increase by 160%. Every time you search on Google or ChatGPT, you’re burning electricity. Multiply that by the billions of users worldwide and you realize the digital world isn’t as “green” as you might think.

Now guess what’s providing most of that electricity? Oil!!! Of course, with climate change looming, renewables seem like the perfect solution. In fact, solar energy is now 90% cheaper than it was a decade ago, and wind farms are popping up everywhere. But here’s the problem: they’re not always reliable. Take solar farms in North America. Because the sun doesn’t always shine and clouds can block it, they only produce about 20% of the power. The same goes for wind energy. No wind, no power. Even countries like Germany, which have invested heavily in wind and solar, still rely on backup fossil fuel power plants to prevent power outages when renewables run out, and while battery storage is improving, we’re still a long way from being able to store enough energy to power cities during prolonged periods of bad weather.

Now, the solution to all this mess could be nuclear energy! And there are already initiatives underway. Countries like China are expanding nuclear energy to reduce coal and gas use, and the US is researching Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), a safer and cheaper form of nuclear technology, and France has been a success story in nuclear power for decades, with 70% of its electricity now coming from nuclear power plants. So yes, unlike solar and wind, nuclear power provides consistent, reliable power. However, there is a downside. Nuclear power plants are expensive to build, and safety concerns persist, especially after events like Chernobyl and Fukushima. Yet France is showing that when done right, nuclear energy can be a game-changer in reducing dependence on fossil fuels.

But what’s interesting is that despite all this growth in renewables and nuclear, oil will continue to be important. In fact, Exxon Mobil has rung the bell: without continued investment, global oil supplies could fall by 15 million barrels per day in a year. That’s a big difference, and if that happens, oil prices could skyrocket by 2030. And keeping the oil flowing isn’t cheap. Exploration costs have doubled, and oil-producing countries have had to raise prices to cover the costs. Without investment, existing oil fields could dry up faster than expected, leaving the world scrambling for alternatives.

So what’s the answer? Look, switching to renewable energy and electric vehicles is a great idea. But it can’t solve everything. We still need reliable, clean, and affordable energy, and right now, no single source is solving all of these problems. The future is likely to be a mix of energy sources: oil, renewables, and nuclear. Renewables will play a larger role, especially in electricity and transportation, but oil will still be critical for industries that can’t easily switch to cleaner alternatives.

So while a fully renewable future may seem appealing, the reality is much more complex. Exxon Mobil’s forecasts may seem bleak. But they do show us that oil has a role to play, at least for now. The question isn’t whether we’ll move on from oil. It’s how quickly we’ll do it, and when we do, which energy sources will come to the fore.

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