In the post-Cold War environment, the US perceived China and Russia as part of the liberal-capitalist system. During that period, the US played a significant role in the rise of the Chinese and Russian economies. After 9/11, these three countries united in their "anti-Islam" stance. Subsequent developments led to Trump's "Make America Great Again" strategy. The underlying idea behind Trump's motto is that the US is the creator of the world's political, economic, and military system, that the current system has been mismanaged by US leaders, and that therefore they have created their own rivals. Since 1996, the debate I've encountered has been about whether China will become one of the future superpowers. During George W. Bush's second term, the US changed its policy towards China. The "valuable partner" concept, inherited from the Clinton era, evolved into a "strategic rival." Subsequently, regardless of whether the government was Democratic or Republican, this understanding remained unchanged.
With Trump's second term, US pressure on China increased. China did not shy away from retaliating. The trade dependency between the two countries is at the level of seven trillion dollars. Their reciprocal actions are harming both sides. It's not just about trade; the main element is technological competition. There are many opinions on whether China can become a power against the US. These debates intensified with the war with Iran.
Some explain China's insufficient response to attacks on its energy partner Iran as "watching the US get bogged down in Iran." These experts believe that Iran's success in closing the Strait of Hormuz, its attacks on US bases in the Gulf, and the damage it inflicted on the regional economy will disrupt relations between the Gulf countries and the US, and harm the US economy. Furthermore, they think that the longer Iran's resistance continues, the more the US will spend on the war, which will benefit China. Some go even further, claiming that the distrust of the US among the Gulf countries after the war ends could be filled by China in the future.
Those who disagree with the experts mentioned above comment that Trump's actions since coming to power will put China in a difficult position in the future. The US is compelled to do this. Furthermore, China's growing economy allows for significant technology investment. Therefore, the US has no choice but to slow down the Chinese economy. China is an energy-hungry country. Producing a quarter of the world's energy, China cannot produce its own. Energy is the lifeblood and the biggest obstacle to its economy. Obtaining energy easily and cheaply is crucial for the sustainability of the Chinese economy. Moreover, the sustainability of the economy means the continuation of the Chinese Communist Party's rule. Therefore, energy directly impacts the future of the Chinese regime.
The country is over 70% dependent on energy imports. China's crude oil imports reached a record level of 11.6 million barrels per day in 2025, and this trend is expected to continue in 2026. Russia, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and Iran are the top four importing countries. The Malaysian issue is interesting. Iranian and Venezuelan oil arriving in China is re-labeled as Malaysian origin. China imports more Malaysian crude oil than Malaysia produces.
China will import a significant portion of its crude oil in 2025 from sanctioned countries like Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. It is estimated that China will import at least 2.6 million barrels per day of sanctioned crude oil in 2025, representing more than 22% of its total imports. This includes 1.38 million barrels per day from Iran, 389,000 barrels per day from Venezuela, and at least 800,000 barrels per day from Russia. Venezuelan oil is now under US control. Whether a US-backed government will emerge in Iran after the war is unknown, but exports have ceased due to the destruction of production fields. Russian crude oil exports to China decreased by 6.9%. The new sanctions led China's national oil companies to reduce their imports from Russia.
The US policies targeting these three exporting countries have cut off 22% of China's oil supply. Without energy, the engine won't run. The other aspect of the issue is the "Belt and Road" project. This project, which connects China to Europe by land, places Iran at a crucial point. Losing Iran, or Iran falling into a state of persistent instability, makes the future of this route uncertain. Pakistan, another component of the route, has shifted towards the US.
The US will remain the first country to sell weapons to Gulf states for their security after a war with Iran. While there's a possibility of a decline in US investment from Gulf states after the war, these countries won't seek alternatives. Their dependence on the US will prevent this. China will turn to Russia for energy solutions to the energy problems that will arise in this crisis. Increased imports from Brazil and Canada will also be another option. On the other hand, it's difficult to know what the US's attitude towards these countries will be. Cutting off China's energy supply too much might not be in the US's interest, especially since China's largest investors are its own companies.
The important point for me is China's inability to exhibit superpower behavior. If you claim to be a superpower but fail to demonstrate the necessary political will, your word won't carry weight. China is absent from Syria, Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine, and Iran. A superpower that internalizes every policy with economics cannot exist. I disagree with the comments that "China is pursuing a strategy of silence and waiting." If silence prevents you from being trusted, you can't call it a strategy. Will China remain silent if Taiwan is involved? The clear answer is... "Absolutely not." Therefore, it would not be wrong to say that China is unable to move beyond a regional perspective.
