I believed that for the US to continue to be a winner, Trump's solution would have to be one that wouldn't make the Europeans wonder, "Why didn't we resolve this from the beginning?", Russia wonder, "Why did we go to this war then?", or Ukraine wonder, "Is that why we fought?" The diplomacy the US has pursued over the past two weeks largely confirms this view. During the US presidential election, Trump claimed he could resolve the issue within 24 hours. Five months have passed since this claim. A lack of resolution would be a major fiasco for a leader who wants to win the Nobel Peace Prize! Trump ultimately realized that he was dancing with a bear, and that the dance couldn't be completed without embodying the bear's demands. The US-Russia summit in Alaska was the key to unlocking the door to peace. The Western summit held at the White House was held in a format that prevented the door opened in Alaska from being closed.
Biden's greatest success in US foreign policy was forcing Europe to embrace the US through the Ukraine-Russia crisis. Likewise, the US, which had difficulty convincing Europe to support its international policies after the Cold War, forced Europe onto its own security wagon by re-enacting the Russian threat. In addition to this, it severed Europe's, especially Germany's, connection to Russia while also eroding the EU's global political influence. Furthermore, by prioritizing NATO over the EU for Europe's eastern flank, it further sharpened the East-West divide within the EU. It also succeeded in weakening Russia militarily and economically. Despite all this, Russia's resistance remained unbroken, and the risk of war escalating has steadily increased.
In every speech, including during the election campaign, Trump declared that he would not have allowed war, placing all the blame on Biden. However, the tone he created after being sworn in was that the US was being exploited by Europeans and that this needed to change. His team, no different from Trump, has seen numerous statements excluding Europe. Trump's desire to run the state like a corporation highlights a US management mindset that prioritizes the economy.
We see this clearly in the Ukraine-Russia crisis. While Europe perceives a Russian victory in Ukraine as a threat, Trump views US aid to Ukraine as a burden on its economy. Trump is very clear that Europe will bear the brunt of the burden if the Ukraine crisis continues. All of this has revealed an EU unable to respond to US demands. The photos from the Oval Office confirm this view. This pressure resulted in NATO members agreeing to increase their defense spending by five percent. Let's not forget that Ukraine has handed over the operation of all its rich mineral resources to the US.
During the meeting at the White House, Ukraine's security was left to a "coalition of the willing" led by the UK and France. However, the US stated that security guarantees could be implemented by European countries "in coordination with the US." Whether this would provide a US guarantee for Ukraine is questionable. Ultimately, Ukrainian security is relegated to the EU's responsibility.
The applicability of NATO's Article 5, proposed by Italy, to protect Ukraine will create major problems in the future. I believe it will not be accepted by Russia or the US. The US has won not only against the Europeans but also against Russia. The signing of the Karabakh peace treaty in the White House before the Alaska meeting was a significant show of force. The US presence in Armenia means containment for Russia. The presence of a "coalition of the willing" in Ukraine should also be added to this containment. Is Russia's weak response to this peace treaty a response to Russia's gains in Ukraine? We will all see.
Furthermore, failure to accept the peace text the US will present to Russia will render Russia intransigent and lead it to assume full responsibility. This will mean paying a higher price and receiving less support for Russia. If this happens, Turkey's previous Russia-related policy will face Western pressure, necessitating a different strategy now. Ukraine is the loser in this situation. It will likely lose its coastline on the Sea of Azov. It will lose more than half of its Black Sea coastline. Its security will be dependent on Europe and its natural resources on the US. Peace seems imminent, but afterward, we will face a new power struggle.
