I see the changes in the markets very positively. Of course, the assassination attempt on Trump scared people, but I was already sure that the stock markets would like it. Because the stock markets want Trump to win, and yesterday an important step was taken on this path. In fact, two steps have been taken at once. One of them is that they love victims everywhere in the USA and the world, and Trump obviously managed that moment very well. After the shooting, they stood up with blood on them and said "we will fight, continue the fight, we will fight" and they pose magnificently in front of such an American flag. These are things Americans would love anyway. Secondly, Obama and Biden also gave very unifying messages. Trump also joined them. I mean, there are people who dream of such a civil war. For those who watch a movie about the American Civil War and get excited, there is no such sign. In fact, I think the competitive tempo of the election has slowed down a bit at the moment. Because from now on, Biden will not say very harsh things about Trump. Because people might hold him responsible. Likewise, Trump has already softened a bit. So, in that respect, a little bit of a drop in the pulse is also positive. They liked it in the market, they are on the rise and I think it will continue like this for a while.

I call this Everything Rally, the environment where everything rises. A tremendous transformation is taking place. On Thursday, small stocks in America were enthusiastic after this low inflation data. The enthusiasm continued on Friday and still continues. Nasdaq shares fell by one as small stocks rose on Thursday. They also recovered on Friday and continue to rise slightly. So there is such a state of balance. There is a stabilization and the stock rally is spreading, it is expanding right now. As you know, they were always saying that this rally is short of criticism. I mean, he's running with very few stocks, just because he's running with Nvidia or something. Now, for example, Nvidia is not working. Despite this, the stock markets are going up and the stocks in our portfolio, such as Sofi, which I always feel sorry for, are now on the move. So let me just say that light has started to shine on the little ones right now and I think this will continue. So IWM came a little faster. Maybe a small correction may be needed here. The RSI is currently above 80.

But I think this spread will continue. I think that not only small stocks but also construction companies, large banks, industrial companies, infrastructure companies, and those engaged in cyclical production will spread to all of these. Because it seems certain that interest rates will drop. It is currently rated and voted at 94% that the interest rate will decrease in September. There was a dovish speech from Powell as things seemed pretty positive there. He said the important thing again. "So we don't need to wait for inflation to fall below 2% to withdraw interest," he said. I see for sure that the softening will continue in July, even if they do not reduce the interest rate at the meeting, and that it will be reduced in September. There are still no clear signs of recession, meaning there are sectors that are slowing down. I always state that there is a breakdown in the power of the consumer. But there is no such clear recession. This is positive because in this case a soft landing scenario is still possible.

Of course, I think the FED is late and the soft landing scenario is a bit difficult right now and America may experience a recession. But even if this happens, it seems like there will be a mild recession, at least at first. Because the FED has extremely high interest rates and it seems possible to reduce them. Widening the rally means the rally is becoming healthy. This does not mean that every stock you own will rise. Those who have not run before will run.

I stated that Bitcoin remains solid. So, despite the sales of both Mt Gox and Germany, Bitcoin maintained 57000 - 58,000 and I said I was long there. Currently, Bitcoin is going around 63000 and it has overcome the important obstacles in front of it. Trump's increasing probability of being elected also benefits bitcoin. So everything is pretty optimistic positive right now. But that doesn't mean I'm sinking everything into stocks and crypto. I keep my cash at 25%, but you never know. So things can get messy at any time. Because remember, most of the companies I invest in have high valuations and become even more valuable. So, for example, Palantir continues to rise non-stop. Tesla swayed from time to time, but he came back with a solid attack. Elon Musk's support for Trump keeps Tesla's future bright. At least that's what investors think right now.

I'm just a little scared of things like this. So, I think the foundations of the company need to be strengthened. There are some delays in that direction as well. Elon Musk also accepted this and said that the autonomous driving issue on August 8 was postponed a little. He said that they would make design changes on the front of the new vehicle they had developed on the front of a few cars, and that they needed some more time for this. But I mean, the direction is still up for Tesla, but I don't care much about the last jump. In other words, there may be corrections at the end of such jumps. The important thing is that Tesla continues its normal development. Because you know, what comes with politics can leave with politics. That side doesn't interest me much.

The situation is like this, so I think we will continue in the coming days. So, we are winning in July, I think it is a good trend. Then things may get messy and uncertainties may arise again close to the elections. We will monitor that. But if they don't exist, traditionally in election years, the stock markets drop a lot in October. It seems to me that we may not experience that either, and there may be intermediate retreats. There may even be sharp retreats. The future looks bright until July 2025. That's how I see the stock market right now. I don't know why there is so much pessimism. So America will always collapse, it will happen like this. No, I think what happened after the Trump incident is positive. That's how I see it, and that's how the stock markets see it, too. Frankly, this is what interests me.

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