The War is Ending, But the Agreement is Debatable

The War is Ending, But the Agreement is Debatable


I think what will happen is this: assuming an agreement can be reached—which is actually doubtful—let's say one way or another, risk appetite will return to the market. In fact, we can say it already has. In that case, semiconductor and chip manufacturers, who have been moving up for a while, will take another step forward. But the remaining stocks will also catch up. For example, miners, pharmaceutical companies, banks and lending companies, gold and silver miners, electricity distribution companies waiting for support to move up, optical communication equipment manufacturers, energy storage systems manufacturers… the list goes on.

However, it's difficult for this movement to start a new trend. Because economically, nothing has changed yet; only the oil supply problem will end, but we don't know how quickly the rising prices will fall. We can't fully measure the extent of the damage done to the global production and distribution network. When this data is revealed, the rise will give way to profit-taking. But don't let me fool you, I'm still positive about global stock markets. In an environment where technological growth is so strong, it would be a big mistake to think that stocks will be weak due to valuation issues or market competition. Indeed, over 85% of companies reporting earnings announced sales and revenue exceeding analyst expectations, while those reporting higher sales and revenue compared to the previous earnings period accounted for over 90% of the total. In other words, companies surpassed both analyst expectations and themselves. Now, in such a situation, having a downward expectation would be somewhat naive. I'm an educated man, I couldn't use another word…

However, as I mentioned above, I fear the rally might extend a little too far upwards. In this case, the market will usually find a reason to sell off a bit. There's no need to be afraid; on the contrary, I think foreign funds will increase their positions. Especially if the Fed seems likely to cut interest rates, then we should see a real rally.

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