Human history is full of examples showing that the fundamental reason for the unexpected defeats of great powers is miscalculation. Napoleon's Russian campaign, Hitler's Operation Barbarossa in Soviet territory, the US war in Vietnam, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan all stemmed from the same miscalculation: the "illusion of power." This is the paradoxical situation that great powers, claiming unlimited power and believing themselves capable and entitled to do anything, find themselves in on the political arena. Uncontrolled power is not real power, and it is not surprising that it turns into a fire that consumes its possessor. The war that the US is waging against Iran alongside Israel seems likely to be remembered more for its strategic mistakes stemming from power intoxication than for its military results. Now that both the ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan and the war have taken a break, let's examine this series of mistakes.

First of all, the biggest miscalculation of the US in this process was seeing Iran only as an economy weakened by decades of sanctions and an ordinary military force. They assumed that the extraordinary difference between the two powers, visible on paper, would translate into equally clear results in practice. However, as Carl von Clausewitz stated, "war was a realm of uncertainties; information was often wrong, and prejudices were prone to error." It was predictable that the weaker side would always have prepared, and knew in advance, different instruments to deploy. In a war they thought would last 3-4 days, or at most a week or two, Iran's emergence with a military buildup capable of lasting months created a psychological advantage that fractured the US administration, leading to mistake after mistake. At a certain point, it also revealed a command and management crisis within the US, resulting in the dismissal of 12 generals, including the commander of the armed forces. Claims that the expected regime change in Iran had occurred in the US became a source of amusement for the global public. The mathematical superiority becoming invisible under the fog of a complex and multi-layered war created a new field of experience for those who hadn't learned enough from Vietnam.

The illusion of power also prepared the ground for intelligence failures, and information flowing from Israeli channels was deemed sufficient. Aside from the unexpected prolongation of the war, the failure to adequately assess the importance of the Strait of Hormuz and the fragility of energy pipelines in the Gulf transformed the cost of the war from a regional crisis into a global shock. It was forgotten that this narrow waterway carries 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, making it one of the most strategically important geographical areas in the world in terms of energy security; or, as Trump put it, it wasn't considered that Iran might dare to close the Strait. Just as it wasn't considered that the Gulf states could become pawns in this war, that even under the pressure of Iranian missiles raining down on them, they might blame the US and Israel rather than Iran, that they might not go to war against Iran as the Trump administration desired, and that world public opinion might hold the US and Israel responsible for the economic crisis. Just as it wasn't considered that this war could plunge the entire US military-political cooperation network around the world, especially its European allies, into a state of great distrust; It was not expected that the so-called US leadership and protection would be realized as a lie, and that they would refuse to stand alongside the US in this war.

Knowledge about a country does not only mean information and intelligence; it also means correctly understanding the cultural codes, historical memory, values ​​specific to that land, and social psychology of the people living in that geography. Iran is not Venezuela; it bears no resemblance in terms of society, state structure, or geographical and topographical features. One of the biggest mistakes of the US administration is its inability to understand Iran as an extension of a great civilization intertwined with history, geography, and faith. Iran is an ancient state that has integrated a state mentality shaped by Persian history and Shiite theology with a sense of greatness, a culture of martyrdom, and a mission of resistance carried in its collective memory. This is precisely what lies behind its motivation to resist the isolation and sanctions that have been in place for nearly 50 years. The main reason why an authoritarian regime can survive for so long is that it is constantly kept in a victimized position, and it is assumed that it will give up. However, the regime's main source of sustenance is this narrative, inherited from Martyr Hussein and Karbala, which is built upon the balance between oppressor and oppressed.

Indeed, the US's mistake in the Iran war stemmed not only from a failure in military intelligence, but also from its failure to understand the cultural and psychosocial logic of that region. What is called the regime in Iran is not merely a state apparatus; it also represents a theopolitical order fueled by religious legitimacy. Just like the Netanyahu regime in Israel or the Evangelical-backed Trump regime in the US, the politics there had a cause that found divine legitimacy for current policies. As the regional war transformed into a war of theologies, it also became a war of narratives, with even the Catholic Pope siding with Iran against Israel and Trump on social media, closely followed by billions of people worldwide, forming psychological connections and refreshing their historical memories.

The US and Israel are now spreading global insecurity in this war, which they launched under the guise of providing security and prestige; demonstrating the practical weakness of their extraordinary capabilities on paper; harming their allies; and making the world economy and the petrodollar system fragile. The US is trying to find a way out by transforming Iran from an isolated part of the system into a sympathetic victim; by shifting world public opinion away from the aggressive Russia image created after the Ukraine war and popularizing antisemitism and anti-Americanism; and by paying a price of billions of dollars. The road from ceasefire to peace is still very long. It would be a mistake to think that Israel will give up easily. But the unexpected characteristics of the current situation also constitute a very important example in world history.