The Incredible Economy of the Race to Capture the Moon


One of the biggest dreams of humankind has always been to go to the moon. Jules Verne's book From the Earth To the Moon, written in 1865, is one of the first examples of this. Later, in 1902, French director George Melies shot his first science fiction film, A Journey to the Moon. There, too, a rocket launched from the Earth hit the Moon in the eye. A real journey to the Moon was only possible in 1969. The United States' Apollo 11 landed on the moon and Neil Armstrong said, "That's a small step for me, a giant leap for mankind." The last manned mission to the Moon took place in 1972. We have been staying away from the Moon ever since, and this paves the way for many conspiracy theories. Just as we have not been to the Moon. However, in fact, one of the main reasons was the lack of economic justifications.

In the cold war between Russia and the USA, America was super motivated to surpass Russia and was pouring money into it pointlessly. John Kennedy said in his famous speech that we are going to the Moon not because it is easy, but because it is difficult. So basically they wanted to collapse Russia, and indeed the huge economic struggle brought about by the moon trip caused the destruction of the Russian economy. Once Russia withdrew from the race, there was no motivation to go to the Moon again. Until recently, there was motivation. There is such motivation that NASA's Artemis project spends 95 billion dollars and says that we are now returning to the Moon permanently. This economic motivation does not only exist in Americans. The Chinese have it, the Indians have it, the Russians have it, even the Japanese have it. They are all trying to go to the Moon and settle there. In today's article, I will try to explain the reasons for this harsh struggle. What are the economic reasons behind it? Who is leading in the race? and of course, most importantly, what kind of investment opportunities arise for us mortals.

The United States soured on Moon travel after winning the big fight with Russia. It brought a huge economic burden and also had very serious dangers. So what happened that the moon became valuable again? Of course, the main reason is economic. There are several important discoveries behind the economic reason. One of these reasons is the presence of water on the Moon. Why is it important that water was discovered? Because it becomes possible for astronauts to live on the Moon for a long time. Additionally, when you separate water into hydrogen and oxygen elements, a new energy source emerges. This energy source is also used to launch rockets. The SLS rockets in the Artemis project are designed to fly with this fuel. This makes it possible for us to turn the Moon into a space base and go from the Moon to deep space by consuming much less energy and power, thanks to the zero-gravity environment. This is one of the motivational sources that made the Moon journey so popular again.

The second issue is directly related to money. Traveling to the Moon is getting cheaper. Thanks to the innovations made by Elon Musk's Space X, we can land most of those giant rockets back to earth safely. Unfortunately, the giant bodies of the rockets that carried people to the Moon on the Apollo spacecraft could not be used again after the flight. Engines and fuel tanks were all disappearing into space. Elon Musk turned this around and found a way to bring these giant bodies back to earth safely. This began to reduce the cost of space travel. For example, the cost of carrying 1 kilogram of payload into space on Soyuzs was 6500 dollars. This cost is below $3200 for Space In this way, carrying cargo into space is constantly becoming cheaper.

Space X is not alone in this race. Rocket Lab is also among those trying to make space travel cheaper. The surface of the Moon is especially rich in rare Earth elements. Many rare earth elements such as scandium, ytterbium, lanthanum, thulium and cerium, which are rare in the world and whose mining is not very economical because they are rare, are abundant on the moon. Of course, it is possible to extract these in the world, but their environmental effects can be very terrible. You don't have to worry about the environment on the moon, they are denser and easier to remove. This is of course high motivation. Because these rare earth elements are used extensively in many places, from new batteries to new communication technologies. But perhaps there is something even more abundant than these rare earth elements, the helium 3 isotope. Helium 3 isotope may have various uses in both fusion and nuclear energy. Helium 3 is less abundant on Earth than on the lunar surface. Because the earth's atmosphere prevents helium from reaching the earth from sunlight. Helium 3 is abundantly available on the Moon, and it is thought to be a serious energy source in the future.

Some scientists even claim that nuclear or fusion energy based on helium 3 can solve the entire energy problem of the world. That's why everyone is trying to reach helium 3. One of the reasons for the fierce struggle to settle on the Moon is to learn more about space. Will our technologies really work in zero gravity? How will human beings survive in a zero-gravity environment? How will our bodies be affected? How will machines be affected? How will communication be achieved? All these are factors that need to be learned, and this is only possible by living on the surface of the Moon for a long time. For this reason, cities will probably not be built on the Moon. But bases will be established and dozens, hundreds of experiments will be conducted at these bases, and what is learned from these experiments will one day help us settle on Mars. Why do we want to settle on Mars?

Because the world may not be enough for us. A stone may hit the world and many other economic reasons may be the motivation behind this. But a base on the Moon will allow us to learn more about space. By launching rockets produced on the Moon with the energy obtained from the Moon, deep space exploration will be carried out with much lower energy and cost, making it possible to travel to Mars. In this context, you can also think of the Moon as a home base for humanity's journey to deep space. All these motivations are one of the main reasons why the United States allocated a huge budget of 95 billion dollars to the Artemis project. The aims of the project are very clear, one of which is to take the first woman to the moon. Taking the first non-Caucasian person to the moon. To establish a base on the Moon and to provide the necessary infrastructure and training to travel to space from there. In this context, the Artemis project has several legs. One of them is SLS, a giant rocket that will carry us to the Moon. It is a space base called Lunar Gateway that will revolve around the Moon. Again, it looks exactly like the base that is currently orbiting the world.

The idea is for astronauts to work at this base for periods of up to 6 months and to land on the surface of the Moon from time to time. They can also stay on the surface of the Moon for up to 30 days. In this context, many sub-projects are in progress, such as the capsule that will land on the Moon and the devices that will carry out construction on the Moon. NASA and Artemis do not accomplish all of this alone. It is also arranged by many other companies, Space X is one of them. The first Artemis missile was launched in November 2022. A second attempt was planned for 2024, but problems arose. This seems to happen in 2025, and in this new attempt, humans will also be sent to space. These will remain in orbit around the moon for a while. In 2026, people will set foot on the Moon again, years after 1972. But this time they are going to a different part of the Moon, the south pole.

Because the water is there, the south pole is a more difficult part of the Moon, but it receives almost no sunlight, it is dark. It is thought that there may be water in the craters here. It is also believed that helium 3 and rare earth elements are more abundant in this region. Therefore, there is a great race to conquer the south pole. Artemis is not the only player in this race. The Chinese also struggle seriously. The Indians have already managed to land a vehicle in the area. He found the water there in that vehicle. It looks like whoever takes over the south pole will take over the Moon. Whoever takes over the moon can also own space. Now here you will ask: Can one own the Moon? You cannot own the moon. There was an agreement in 1967 in which all giants such as Russia, America and China participated. More than a hundred countries signed that agreement and the agreement says that no one can claim to own land in space.

But both the Americans and the Chinese are trying to find ways around this. For example, during the term of President Obama, America brought a new interpretation to that agreement. He said that if we mine somewhere and get something from there, it can be ours. He said that the land should not be ours, but what we get from the mine could be ours. In other words, it is always possible to find some loopholes in the law, but what is worse is that it is not easy to enforce this law. Imagine how difficult it is to send people to the Moon. The first one to get there may own the place and may well block the newcomers. That's why there is such an incredible race. China has also joined this race recently, and China has also joined the fight to seize the south pole of the moon. It is a fight similar to the fight between America and Russia in the cold war. This time, America and China must be added to it, and India must also be added to it. It seems like it will happen between these countries.

Of course, there are also great economic opportunities created by all this. There are investment opportunities. It is thought that the space economy and its subset, the lunar economy, will grow greatly in the coming years. For now, we are only focused on rockets. Because without them nothing is possible. Companies like Space X and Rocket Lab should be on everyone's investment radar. But there are also more opportunities. In this context, I went directly to nasdaq.com. There's a good article there. The article reveals that Morgan Stanley estimates the size of the space industry at $1.1 trillion by 2040. According to the same article, Bank of America claims that space will turn into a 1.4 trillion dollar economy by 2030. Of course, when we talk about space, we are not just talking about traveling to the Moon, traveling to Mars, or building bases there. Some technological developments in closer orbit, such as Space X's Starlink communications satellites, are also considered part of the space industry.

Barron's has a great article on this subject. This article talks about companies that those who are considering investing in space can look at. There are ASTS, for example Astra Space, BlackSky, Momentus, Planet Labs, Rocket Lab. It is the company that has succeeded in sending the most rockets into space after Space Spire Global, Virgin Galactic, oh Virgin Galactic, one of the companies that hurt me, I invested in when it was going public. Unfortunately, it has not been a very successful investment at the moment. Apart from this, old players such as Boeing and Lockheed, of course, have space-related initiatives. There are also companies that have a say in space communications, such as Iridium, Globalstar and Viasat. Again, when we go back to Nasdaq's website, it also mentions some ETFs. Investing in ETFs may make more sense.

These are very active stocks. When you invest in ETFs here, you are investing directly in space companies or companies that may be affected by developments in the space industry. ARK's etf named ARKX is an example. There is an etf called Procure Space etf, and its name is very nice, by the way, its abbreviation is UFO. SPDR Kensho Final Frontiers etf is abbreviated as ROKT, which probably comes from rocket. It is always necessary to examine the details of these.

Investing in space as a career can also be a good idea. Because it seems clear that crazy money will rain into space and new talents and new skills are needed here. If you have been interested in space since your childhood, like me, your dreams can come true and you can find a job in such companies. For example, when you go to Space X's website, it is quite possible to see the employees they are looking for. I am incredibly excited about this space and Moon issue.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

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