I love investing in technology. I think the biggest industry of the future is humanoid robots, or humanoid robots. Humanoid robots look like humans, they have the form factor of humans. The reason for this is that they naturally adapt to the places where we work, where we live, and they quickly learn and put into practice what we do in our daily lives, in our workplaces, factories, and logistics centers. There have been very important developments in humanoid robots in recent times.

I think the biggest economic opportunity of the future lies here. In that context, what is happening in humanoid robots today, why this market is so important, why we have reached an interesting point in technology. I will explain all of them and present some investment opportunities. What I will tell you is of course not an investment advice, but rather a visionary look at the future. You will make your own investment choices.

I am sure that you have come across a lot of videos and comments about humanoid robots lately. Especially since I am a Tesla investor, humanoid robots interest me even more. I am closely following the development of their robot called Optimus. We can even say that I am watching like a father watching his child. Because I believe that if Optimus is successful, we will laugh at Tesla's current valuations in the future.

Of course, it is difficult to be sure of this, but the developments are very positive. Tesla is not the only player in this direction. There are other important competitors. Let's look at the details of what they are doing, why this work has accelerated right now, what is happening in technology. First of all, what makes these humanoid robots very valuable is the shortage of labor in the world. Because the world population is no longer increasing, but our needs are not ending either.

The number of elderly population that we need to look after is increasing. We need more and more services, but there are not that many new and young people. Therefore, there are big gaps in the global labor market. So what is the size of the global labor market? We are talking about a market of 42 trillion dollars in total time. This is the total size of the market according to the World Bank 2024 figures. 25 trillion dollars of this is annual personal wages. This is the wage paid directly to the labor force. So what are humanoid robots aiming for here? They aim to get a share of this market, which is between 4 and 6 trillion dollars, by 2040. In other words, humanoid robots want to make approximately 15-20% of global jobs suitable for automation. This means a trillion-dollar market opportunity for the coming years.

So is there a need for this? Why are we replacing humans with robots? In fact, we will not replace humans with robots. There are not enough people. There is a very serious labor shortage in the world and this is a growing crisis. For example, when we look at the USA, it is thought that there will be a shortage of around 85 million workers. In 2030. Moreover, the USA does not yet have projections to pull production back into the country with these tariffs. It could increase that labor shortage even more. Why is this so? Because its population is aging.

Also, it is not only the young population but also the skill match. In other words, you can accept immigrants from abroad, but if they do not have the skills suitable for new jobs, you need to resort to extremely difficult and costly methods such as retraining and re-developing them, which are somewhat controversial whether they will be successful or not.

When we look at Europe, it is thought that there will be a shortage of around 40 million workers in 2030. The problem in Europe is demographic collapse. The population is aging there. There is a similar problem in Japan. It is thought that there will be a shortage of around 11 million workers in 2030. Because it has one of the oldest populations in the world.

There is actually a similar problem in China. A net decrease in the workforce is now expected as of 2025. These are demographic delays after the one-child policy and it is not easy to compensate. When we look at the current numbers, China's labor cost is 1/5 of the USA, and India's labor cost is 1/5 of China. Because India is one of the rare countries with a growing population. In the recent global trade wars, the US is shifting its production from China to India. There are both strategic reasons behind this.

They say that the values ​​of the US and India are a little more compatible and their common enemy is China. Because China has always been in tension with India. But beyond this, perhaps the real reason is that labor costs are much cheaper in India. Workers' salaries are increasing all over the world, but companies still cannot find enough people. If this problem is not solved and employment gaps are not closed, productivity will collapse in the world and global gross national product growth will fall to 1% or 2%. It may even go into the negative. In other words, robots are not such a nice option for us. We need them and robots are not coming to take our jobs. They are actually coming to support us in jobs that we do not do, cannot do, and are not strong enough for.

When we look at the sectors, they have different effects in different areas. For example, it is thought that a lot of robots will be used in healthcare services. In areas such as patient transportation, elderly care, basic nursing services. There is an estimate of 11.9 trillion dollars here. These are the latest estimates for 2025. Robots may be needed in areas such as assembly, inspection, maintenance, and logistics on the production side. There seems to be a $16 trillion market here. There is a need in retail and tourism; store clerks, waiters, hotel receptionists, and of course home care services. Here, $650 billion is mentioned only in the USA. This will grow even more in the coming years. Because the elderly population is increasing. On the other hand, our life expectancy is also increasing. In other words, the time we need care is increasing.

All these areas are perfect for humanoid robots. So what happened recently that humanoid robots suddenly became more popular? When we were kids, there were humanoid robots in cartoons, but they were not implemented. There were humanoid robots in Star Wars, but they were not implemented. However, they have accelerated very quickly recently. One of the main reasons behind this is of course the developments in artificial intelligence.

Robots can understand people's instructions and feelings more easily. They can make instant decisions more easily. They can learn from people more easily. There are great developments here. When we look at the physical side, there are developments in actuators and servo motors. In other words, there are developments in technologies that give these robots joints, muscles, and movement, and on the one hand, they are getting cheaper.

There is a lot of development in batteries. They are moving from a few hours of operation to a full day of use. Especially electric cars have paved the way for brand new technologies in this regard, and on the other hand, 3D perception and computer vision technologies are developing. In other words, humanoid robots can now see their surroundings. They can interpret and understand just like a human. We are already seeing similar things in autonomous driving. Tesla, Google Waymo, and all the players in China have autonomous driving vehicles on the road. They try to understand by looking around and seeing. All of these are reflected in robots.

Beyond these, thanks to Edge Computing and 5G technologies, robots can react instantly without cloud delay. It is becoming possible for robots to work even offline. Here are all the basic technological developments that strengthen robots.

Who are the major manufacturers right now? In other words, there is no one making money from this business, but there are those who are developing it rapidly. Tesla is of course one of the important players. Early prototypes of Tesla Optimus are currently working in Tesla factories. They will increase to a few thousand units by the end of this year. Figure AI is a very important player. They also have very important investors. I think they are one of Tesla's most direct competitors. They are also currently being used in pilot programs. They provide services to different automotive companies, for example. They have started partnerships in the logistics sector. There is a company called Apptronic. Its commercial launch took place in 2024. It is planned to be used in warehouses and light industrial areas. There is a company called Agility Robotics. It is also developing projects with Amazon. It works especially in distribution areas. Apart from this, there are many players in China, but we do not have the chance to invest in them. There are also robots that jump, bounce and fight. Boston Dynamics' Atlas 2.0 is such an example. Again, Sanctuary Phoenix models are also in the process of moving from laboratory tests to commercial applications.

We need to add another dimension to all the technological developments I have been talking about. These robots are now being trained in simulation environments. Nvidia in particular has important services in this regard.

In other words, you train your robot in the virtual world. You add what it learns there to its brain in the physical world. On the one hand, you can develop the robot by looking at its physical design and what it can do in the simulation world. This was again a process that accelerated the development of humanoid robots. So how quickly will we adapt to this technology? Of course, we will not adapt to it tomorrow. No technology is like that.

According to estimates, we will see its first use in factories, warehouses and the health sector between 2025 and 2030. We are already seeing it, by the way. It will increase even more by the end of this year. Because robots are still expensive and they have not reached the power and speed to live one-on-one with us in daily life. They still have a long way to go. There will be serious cost reductions in these robots between 2030 and 2035. In this case, they will come to SMEs and maybe home services. It is expected to become widespread between 2035 and 2040. Of course, these are the time periods seen for now. There may be delays and slowdowns in these. But artificial intelligence has developed at a speed much faster than expected. Therefore, this is possible here too. The only problem here is that these robots are physical products. Development in the physical world, that is, the world of atoms, can always be slower and more painful than development in the bit and byte world, that is, the digital world.

According to some estimates, by 2040, owning a humanoid robot will become a routine issue, just like owning a car or a mobile phone, and maybe we will start bragging about whose humanoid robot is cuter. This is roughly our roadmap.

So where are the investment opportunities? We have been talking about them for a while now. Some of them are very obvious, Tesla is of course an investment opportunity. Tesla is currently still a car company. This year, it may become a fully autonomous taxi fleet operating company. But on the one hand, it is developing humanoid robots based on artificial intelligence. So Tesla is an opportunity here. Of course, the fluctuations in Tesla stocks are very sharp. If your body can handle it, you need to think.

Nvidia is an opportunity, because Nvidia is developing two basic technologies that make all these robots possible. One is microchips, which is the brain of the robot, and on the other hand, the simulation environments I mentioned earlier and the software services that are built around all these. So Nvidia will definitely benefit from humanoid robots.

Amazon is a big player here again. They also invest in such companies that use robots in their own warehouses and logistics centers.

Apart from this, there are ETFs. For example, like the BOTZ ETF. There is a Robo ETF. You can evaluate these as well. These are also funds, but you definitely need to examine them yourself.

So what will the world be like if these humanoid robots succeed? It will be great. In other words, we have always been shown movies about the troubles that humanoid robots will cause us when they come to life. Such disiotopic sharing about the future always makes more work because it is in the cinema. But in fact, humanoid robots will make the workforce incredibly abundant. One of the biggest cost items in the world will almost be zero. In other words, you will buy a robot or pay rent. That robot will be your maid at home. It will be your worker when you go to the factory. It will be your driver on the road. It will walk your dog. There will be an abundance of workforce in many areas.

The abundance of workforce will reduce prices and costs in the production sector. This will also be reflected in services. We will see a lot of deflationary effects in the service sector. Because these will come into play instead of expensive personnel. They will provide very low-cost services in many areas such as health, education and care. New industries will definitely emerge.

In other words, on the one hand, an industry related to training these robots will emerge. On the other hand, brand new sectors such as micro production and hyper-local tourism, which these robots make possible, will emerge. Things that cannot be done right now due to the labor market, and perhaps all of these will make human life better.

As we get rid of the routine tasks on us, we will deal with more art, science and discovery. Of course, this pie will not be distributed equally to everyone. As in every technological development, those who make this technological development will get the biggest share of the pie and maybe we, the investors, will also get a share of this enrichment if we can position ourselves in the right place.

Will robots threaten workers? I don't think so, at least in the short term. It seems like they will come to support them. There are already labor shortages. But sooner or later, they are definitely candidates for the job of a blue-collar worker. They are definitely candidates for the job of a nurse. In this context, the labor market in the world will also become completely different.

It will be clear in the coming days what we humans will do. I know it is very difficult for you to believe what I am telling you right now, but I have experienced two revolutions so far. One of them is the internet revolution. When it came into effect in 1990, would you shop online? Would you read books online? Is the information on the internet accurate? Many doubts were encountered, resolved, and we came. Then the electric vehicle revolution began.

Perhaps we will see this acceleration in unmanned robots in 2025 and beyond, and they will become a part of all our lives. Preparing ourselves for such a future is not only beneficial as an investment, but also professionally, psychologically and sociologically, and my final thoughts are;

Humanoid robots are an inevitable reality. Because there are great economic and technological reasons behind them. Developments in technology make these possible. Developments in the economy make them mandatory. Whether you will be a part of this or not is your decision. At least I want to be a part of this tremendous process on the investment side. I can also guarantee that you will have a hard time investing in these areas.

Because this is a long-term future. If everything is going well, markets like to invest in the long-term future. But when things get a little tight, the long-term future is immediately forgotten and it may be preferable to invest in companies that produce toilet paper. That is why their stocks fluctuate so sharply. You can see for yourself what is happening with Nvidia and Tesla. But where we will reach is clear. Who will be the winners of this reach? That is not very clear. We continue to follow that.