The world started the week with the announcement from US President Donald Trump that "the details of the agreement with Iran have been finalized." The war between the US and Iran, which began on February 28, 2026, will officially end with the signing of a formal peace agreement (preliminary memorandum of understanding) in Geneva, Switzerland, on Friday, June 19, unless it is sabotaged at the last minute by Israel. Following intense mediation efforts by regional actors such as Pakistan, Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, both countries officially confirmed that a historic agreement had been reached. So, who won this war?

Why did the US enter this war in the first place? What did it gain from the war? These are the questions swirling in my head. Looking at the details of the agreement, it is clear that Washington was scrambling to achieve at the negotiating table what it couldn't achieve militarily and economically on the ground, while Tehran, despite its destroyed infrastructure, emerged strategically victorious. The Trump administration entered this war without setting an achievable political goal or having a coherent exit strategy. Trump, captivated by the four-stage "regime change in Iran" illusion presented by Netanyahu at the White House on February 11th—an illusion dismissed as "nonsense" by CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Secretary of State Marco Rubio—made the mistake of believing Iran to be on the same level as Venezuela.

However, he faced a state with millennia-old traditions, years of preparation for this war, with underground rocket launcher systems and a sphere of influence extending throughout the region. Weeks of intense bombardment did not collapse the regime; on the contrary, it made Tehran even more audacious, setting the pace for the escalation. Moreover, Iran responded to the military escalation with an enormous asymmetrical cost that brought the global economy to the brink of recession. The US, possessing the world's most advanced military, found itself trapped in a bottleneck it created with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has demonstrated its ability to cripple Saudi and Gulf trade by keeping the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, controlled by Houthi allies, on the table. The Gulf monarchies, meanwhile, have learned through bitter experience that American bases on their soil, far from protecting them, make them easy targets. Seeing the Republican Party's impending defeat in the November midterm elections and facing helplessness in the face of rising oil prices, Trump, under these circumstances, is seeking to package a war he couldn't win on the ground as a diplomatic victory on paper.

However, the resulting document is not a final peace agreement, but rather a two-stage failure certifying the bankruptcy of Washington's military and economic pressure mechanisms. The naval blockade imposed since April 13th is lifted, Iran's sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz are implicitly recognized under the guise of "service fees," and the core crisis issues, such as the nuclear program, are postponed to an uncertain 60-day negotiation process without any concrete promises. Furthermore, the $300 billion in reconstruction funds leaked by Pakistani sources and the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets are a clear indication that the White House has completely capitulated to Tehran's demands. This is precisely why Israel went into a frenzy, striking Beirut to sabotage the deal; Netanyahu sees very clearly that Washington is seeking a way out with an unconquerable Iran.

Indeed, it is no coincidence that Trump and his team, cornered domestically, are resorting to illusions again to cover up this diplomatic defeat and the cost of the global energy crisis. Trump's sudden promise to open the UFO and extraterrestrial life files at the most critical juncture of the war raises the question: "Is this a change of agenda?" Just as he allegedly tried to erase his name from the Epstein files when entering the war, is he now trying to escape the diplomatic trap in the Strait of Hormuz with alien stories? Finally, let's add that no alien or UFO story has any credibility left in the eyes of the international public. Even if aliens were real, people might choose not to believe them simply because of these stories presented to them.