Tesla Brings Massive Balance Sheet and Future Goals


Wednesday was a good day for Tesla investors, maybe for the first time in a long time. Because Tesla announced with numbers that the downward trend was reversing on Wednesday. I was also pleased with what Tesla announced on We Robot Day, but the numbers were not very concrete there. That's why investors panicked. However, the numbers on Wednesday showed us that Tesla is on a great path. First of all, the turnover was slightly below expectations and was realized as 25.18 billion dollars. This is an 8% increase compared to last year, but the real surprise came from the profit per share. The market was expecting 60 cents, it came to 72 cents. Frankly, I was even more pessimistic. I was thinking we could go down to 55. It came to a great profit per share that would surprise me too. The reason for this was the increase in gross profit, a gross profit of 19.8%. Wall Street was expecting around 17%. In the automotive sector, a gross profit of 17% came, Wall Street was expecting around 14%. The reason seemed to be Tesla's success in reducing costs and productivity increases. They reduced the production cost per vehicle to $35,100. This is the lowest number in history so far. Tesla is really struggling with a huge efficiency struggle. Because according to Tesla's idea, the more economical we make the vehicles, the more the market will grow. They continue to break records in this context.

On the one hand, they also created a huge cash flow. They created a positive free cash flow of $2.7 billion and thus reached a net cash position of $33.6 billion. This is the strongest position in the automotive sector. Because Tesla's debt is only $7 billion, so Tesla showed a great performance in very bad days, in other words, in the days when interest rates were super high, Tesla did not release new vehicles, and it was said that Elon Musk's actions on the political side had a very negative effect on Tesla. On the other hand, the battery business continues to grow. Elon Musk says we cannot keep up with the demand on this issue and we saw that the profitability on the megapack side was over 30%. Again, this was one of the things we learned on Wednesday. But of course, what is really important is that Elon Musk presented two important data with his statements.

One of them said that the economical Tesla will be released in the first half of 2025. This was a much-debated topic. Tesla will release the fully autonomous Robocab, but will it also release an economical vehicle with a more normal steering wheel? He said that he will release it and said that we are proceeding in a planned manner, it will come in the first half of 2025. Another important statement was that they will definitely reach fully autonomous unmanned driving in FST, Full Self Drive, in the middle of 2025. He said that they will also start taxi service in Texas in the middle of 2025. This will start with the existing Teslas. In the meantime, they already have such a service for their employees. There is still a driver in it for safety, but the taxi service has been provided to Tesla employees for a while by driving on its own, largely without a driver.

He also gave interesting data about Tesla's autonomous taxi Cybercab. We will start production little by little in 2025. He said that they will start full-scale production in 2026. This is a new claim. Previously, it seemed like they would only start production in 2026 and they said that they aim to produce 2 million vehicles in a year in Cybercab. Another very important data is that they started to make gross profit in Cybertruck. This means a very big speed in this sector. Because, as you know, Rivian has been producing electric pickups similar to Cybertruck for a very long time and they still have serious losses per vehicle. Tesla Cybertruck has already made a profit. I always say that Elon Musk's real big trick is to scale quickly, to make a profit quickly. We learned on Wednesday that they have also made a gross profit in Cybertruck. Again, Tesla Cybertruck's competitors, Hammer Electric Vehicle and Ford F150, have been in production for a long time but they still cannot make a profit.

Analysts also asked a question about Tesla Semi, that is, the truck tractor, and he answered that question as follows. There is an incredible demand right now for Tesla Semis, those who do not buy this product and adapt it will lose a lot. Because operating costs are much lower than Tesla Semi tractors. Elon Musk also said that the Cybercab autonomous taxi will be sold for around $25,000. Tesla is expecting a very strong fourth quarter of this year in sales. They are predicting a 25-30% growth in sales volumes with the launch of the new economic vehicle next year. Of course, this was very good for the market. Because some rote-readers have been marketing the story of Tesla's growth ending for a long time.

Another detail we learned on Wednesday was that Tesla's new production technology in the production of Cybercab is called Unboxed Manufacturing Method, and he said that they will use it and therefore the vehicle can be produced very profitably. On the other hand, he said that we will reach 100 gigawatt production in a short time on the battery side, and we are establishing new factories. Let's also talk a little about the report Tesla published on Wednesday. There are interesting details there too. It says there is a GAAP operating profit of 2.7 billion dollars, and it broke a record here. It says there is a net profit according to GAAP accounting of 2.2 billion dollars in the third quarter, and it broke a record here too. It says there is a non-GAAP net profit of 2.5 billion dollars, and it broke a record here too. One issue they emphasize a lot here is that they are very ambitious about reducing costs in vehicles. They say they reduced the cost of a vehicle to 35,100 dollars. This was already the main issue that increased the profit margin in this quarter. Free cash flow was 2.7 billion dollars. Cash flow from operating activities was 6.3 billion dollars. In other words, despite making one of the largest capital expenditures to date, thanks to this enormous operating cash flow, it made $2.7 billion in free cash flow and increased its total cash on hand by $2.9 billion, bringing it to $33.6 billion.

By the way, let me give you some information. If you ask whether Tesla is not paying its manufacturers and suppliers, no, it is one of the best payers in the sector. It has a 60-day average payment. It says that we have increased our AI power, that is, our processing power, by 75%. It says that Cybertruck became the third best-selling electric vehicle in the United States in the third quarter. If you ask who is ahead of it, there are Model Y and Model 3. The prices of this vehicle were around $100,000 in the third quarter. Now cheaper models are coming out. Despite that, they have achieved tremendous sales and our vehicles have traveled approximately 2 billion miles in fully autonomous driving so far. Thanks to this, their learning curves are also climbing rapidly and we are also increasing our AI investments rapidly.

On the energy side, as you know, there is also the large battery side. We produced 200 megapacks there in a week at the Lake Tahoe factory. This factory is just getting back on its feet, everything is going strong there too. The details of the numbers are that the turnover on the automobile side is 20 billion 16 million dollars. There is a 2% growth compared to last year. There is a 52% growth on the energy storage, namely battery, side. 2 billion 376 million and on the other hand, of course, the services turnover is also growing as the vehicle fleet grows. There is a 29% growth there. The total turnover has grown by 8% and has reached 25 billion 182 million. In other words, Tesla has now become a company with an annual turnover of over 100 billion dollars. Gross profit is 19.8%, which means an increase of 195 basis points compared to last year. Frankly, no one expected this.

One very interesting thing is that the company manages to reduce its operating expenses while increasing its turnover. If you recall, there were heavy layoffs in the previous quarter. Now they are reflected in the numbers. Maybe this was one of the issues we were a little wrong about in our calculations. Thanks to this, the main operating expenses have decreased by 6%. The profit from operations is 2 billion 717 million dollars, 54% more than last year. The turnover is 8% more, the main operating profit is 54% more. The main operating profit margin has reached 10.8%. This means an increase of 323 basis points compared to last year. When we put all these together and look at the net profit, it is 2 billion 167 million, according to GAAP standards, it has increased by 17% compared to last year. According to non-GAAP, it has become 2 billion 505 million. It has increased by 8% compared to last year.

There is a net cash flow from operations of 6 billion 255. They have made an enormous investment of 3 billion 513 million during this period. Despite this, the free cash flow is 2 billion 742 million and thus they have reached a net cash of 33 billion 648 million dollars. There is a 29% increase compared to last year. So these are really great indicators of what Tesla can achieve even in such difficult times. The production capacity is also interesting. Here, Tesla says they have reached 125,000 capacity in Cybertruck. They are currently in pilot production of Tesla Semi truck tractor, they are building the factory. I hope that will come into operation soon. Shanghai China Factory is pushing 1 million now. It is going great there. Tesla's plans for Artificial Intelligence capacity are also great. It is coming up the ladder. It seems like it will climb quite a bit from here. He says that thanks to this, we will also solve autonomous driving. Our artificial intelligence center consisting of 29,000 H100 Nvidia chips is currently in operation. We will increase this to 50,000 by the end of October, in the next 10 days. Nvidia's CEO made a statement on this subject. We have never seen anything like this. No one can put such a large artificial intelligence data center into operation this quickly. Elon Musk completes work that would take 3-4 years in weeks. Nvidia's CEO made a statement saying, "We don't understand how you do this either."

Meanwhile, there are economists who say ridiculous things like electric vehicles are dead. Actually, it is not like that. Because when we look at it, except for China and when we include China, the share of electric cars in total sales in the world has reached record numbers. It says it has exceeded 12%, now when we include hybrids, it is almost approaching 40%. Of course, this is a bit slower in the world except for China, when we include China, it has exceeded 12% and continues to climb. Also, at this meeting, they announced that robot taxis can travel 5.5 miles with 1 kWh of energy. This is also a sector record and a tremendously efficient number.

What does all this mean? We have come to the end of the bad story at Tesla. We are moving on to a better story. I was actually saying the same thing after a robot day. However, the market was a little scared because the numbers expected by Wall Street were not announced that day. But what is Elon Musk saying now? We will launch the economic car in the first half of the year next year. We expect a 30% increase in vehicle sales next year. We expect a very strong fourth quarter this year. We will reach full autonomous driving next year. We were already providing this service to our own employees, we will start expanding it. We estimate that we will be successful in taxi service in Texas first. Texas is in the hands of the Republicans, as you know. That also has an effect, and we will start Cybercab production at full speed in 2026. We think we will produce 2 million vehicles there per year. These will be sold for around $25,000. Tesla Semi is going full speed. We have reached profit in Tesla Cybertruck. What more can Elon Musk say. I wish those who short Elon Musk and doubt Tesla a speedy recovery.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

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