In recent weeks, the most talked-about topic in the markets has undoubtedly been the Middle East, and within this context, oil and the risk of oil-related inflation. The tensions between Iran and the US-Israel conflict, along with scenarios unfolding regarding the Strait of Hormuz, have drawn investors' attention to oil prices. Oil is a key variable in today's analyses. While news of a compromise provided significant relief for the markets, the chaos created by the war had already begun to affect central bank monetary policies. Indeed, the recent rise in energy prices has brought renewed questions about the global disinflation process. The European Central Bank increased its policy interest rate by 25 basis points in June.
While the FED decision is not yet known at the time of writing, we will see how dovish the new chairman, Warsh, will remain in the context of the compromise reached. This picture shows that oil has a strong impact on the economic system. However, the question we must ask today is: Is oil truly still the world's biggest economic risk? News of a compromise has reassured the markets. But even with a compromise, it is important to emphasize that the transformation in global value chains will bring with it different risks. The rise of China, the expansion of BRICS countries, the strengthening of regional trade blocs, and increasing protectionism in strategic sectors are among the key indicators of this transformation. Therefore, the determining factor in the new era will be how countries position themselves in the changing geo-economic order. Trade wars, technological competition, the struggle for access to critical minerals, semiconductor manufacturing, cybersecurity threats, and geopolitical bloc formation constitute the main risk areas of the new era. This is supported by the figures.
According to data from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), the size of the global semiconductor market today exceeds $800 billion, and this momentum is expected to transform artificial intelligence and data center investments into a trillion-dollar ecosystem. According to the International Energy Agency, annual investment in clean energy technologies is projected to nearly double fossil fuel investments for the first time by 2025. This indicates a shift in strategic priorities in the global economy. While energy security was once largely defined by the supply of oil and natural gas, today chip manufacturing capacity, data centers, battery technologies, and access to critical minerals are just as important as energy resources. Therefore, countries are now trying to secure not only oil supplies but also technology production and supply chains.
Rare earth elements are perhaps one of the areas where this risk is most acutely felt. Following China's export controls implemented in April 2025, shipments of some rare earth elements decreased by approximately 50% compared to the previous 12 months. According to the IEA's assessment, if China's export controls are fully implemented, up to $6.5 trillion in economic activity in other countries could be at risk annually – a figure roughly nine times the estimated $700 billion global growth cost of the Strait of Hormuz Crisis, which was focused on oil supply. Consequently, while the decline in oil prices may provide short-term relief, the risk map of the global economy can no longer be read through a single commodity or a single strait; technology, data, critical minerals, and supply chains are emerging as the main determinants of this new era.
Central banks' reserve behavior also confirms this change. In recent years, many countries have turned to diversifying their reserves. While the dollar's share of global reserves was over 70% in the early 2000s, this rate is projected to be below 60% in 2025 (IMF). The shift of central banks towards gold in the last 2-3 years indicates a significant transformation in the financial system. According to recent figures, within the G7, the share of gold in central bank reserves has reached the 65-80% range in the US and major European economies, while exceptions like Japan (7%) pull this average down. A difference is noticeable in developing economies. This rate is around 30% in Russia and 10% in India. Although official figures indicate a 10% gold reserve holding rate in China, it is also emphasized that gold investment may be much higher than this.
In short, while the world is not completely abandoning the dollar-centric system, it is not seeing it as its sole support either. The increasing demand for gold by central banks shows that preparations are being made for an uncertain global order. In the new era, economic power will be measured not only by energy resources but also by possession of technology, critical minerals, data infrastructure, and strong reserve structures. Therefore, while countries continue to monitor oil, they are basing their financial security on gold. Perhaps this is why, even though markets are talking about oil today, they are actually pricing in all this uncertainty.
