We've entered December. Our attention has now turned to the new year. Expectations for 2026 have surrounded us. 2026 presents numerous risks and uncertainties. It's a year that requires extreme caution. Chief among these risks this year are geopolitical tensions; developments in the US, Europe, China, and Russia; the contraction in world trade; and the slowdown in global production growth. Since the Covid pandemic, the global economy has been experiencing a series of shocks. At the beginning of 2025, the US raised tariffs to the highest levels seen in nearly a century, dealing a major blow to the global economy. Fortunately, a trade war like the one experienced in the 1930s was not repeated. The global economy has shown considerable resilience in the face of major turbulence. However, the global economic outlook is weak, and most assessments point to downward risks. According to the IMF's latest forecast, the world economy will grow by 3.1 percent in 2026, well below the 3.7 percent average between 2000 and 2019.
The slowing global economy and increasing protectionist trends will challenge the export-led growth model for developing countries. In 2026, not only foreign trade but also financial markets pose a significant risk area. We've begun to hear frequent talk of bubbles forming in the shares of artificial intelligence companies. Caution is needed against sudden market corrections. The IMF Chairman has issued similar warnings.
Frankly, the global risks we're discussing for 2026 pale in comparison to the process of destruction and reconstruction we're experiencing. Deeper, slower-moving transformations are taking place in the global order, the effects of which will span decades. We could call these "tectonic shifts." The global order that has dominated the world for the last 80 years is crumbling before our eyes. There's an asymptotic advance in technology. As with previous technological revolutions, all social and economic life will change, from our individual lives to the international system. New technologies will cause a massive increase in energy demand. While meeting this rapid increase in energy demand, the fight against climate change will also need to intensify. For the first time in history, the world will face a rapidly aging and shrinking population. The world's population is projected to decline starting mid-century.
In short, the economic and social order we're accustomed to will undergo a process of destruction and reconstruction spanning a long period of time. As the global system transitions to a new architecture, all countries will need to adopt a new growth model. It's time to say goodbye to "old stone, old bathhouse" growth models. There's no room for "low-wage, low-productivity, low-tech" production in the new global economic order.
