The ceasefire is nearing its expiration date. Negotiations are ongoing, but there's no agreement. Oil has fallen below $100, but is it permanent? US inflation jumped from 2.4% to 3.3% in a single month, and everyone is asking the same question: What will happen on April 22nd?

The tone of last week was set before it even began. On Sunday morning, April 13th, 21 hours of direct US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad ended without an agreement. Vice President JD Vance walked away saying, "Our position is clear, we believe the ball is in Iran's court"; Iran, however, blamed the collapse on the US condition that Iran abandon its nuclear weapons program. Neither side uttered a single word about what would happen when the two-week ceasefire ended on April 22nd. Pakistan's mediation hadn't broken down, but it was frayed and strained. While negotiating teams returned to Tehran awaiting new instructions, the Strait of Hormuz was still operating at partial capacity, with over 800 ships still stranded. Last week opened with this tension.

Despite the collapse of negotiations on April 13, the market reaction was the opposite of what was expected. Optimism that mediation efforts from Islamabad could "at least keep the ceasefire going until the end," and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi's confirmation earlier in the week that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open during the ceasefire, triggered a sharp decline in oil prices. On April 14, Brent experienced one of its biggest daily drops in recent weeks, falling below $100 to around $92.61. The impact of this move on inflation expectations was immediate: the dollar weakened, while gold rose 2.07% to $4,852.10 and silver rose 5.45% to $80.26 on the same day.

On Wednesday, April 15, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt announced that the parties could meet again in Pakistan for a second round of negotiations. She said, "The talks are ongoing and productive," but did not give a date. On the same day, the Pakistan Army Chief traveled to Tehran to meet with Iranian officials. Indirect diplomacy was underway, but the outcome was uncertain. Markets continued to search for direction amidst this "neither entirely bad nor entirely good" news. Brent fluctuated between $92 and $97; there was no major directional breakout. Gold, meanwhile, continued to hold in the $4,780-$4,850 range, heading for its fourth consecutive weekly close in positive territory.

Last week's most significant data release on the global financial agenda was actually announced on Friday, April 10th, but its repercussions continued throughout the week. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics' March 2026 CPI data showed that annual inflation jumped from 2.4% in February to 3.3% in March, the highest level since May 2024. On a monthly basis, the increase was 0.9%, marking the largest monthly acceleration since 2022. The driver was clear: the energy index rose 12.5% ​​year-on-year in March, gasoline prices exceeded $4 a gallon and rose 21.2% compared to February, all directly impacting oil prices due to the Iran conflict. The Fed's next meeting is on April 28-29; and the dominant scenario in the markets is that interest rates will remain stable at 3.5-3.75%. However, the note some Fed officials included in the March minutes, stating that "rate hikes are also on the table if necessary," gained new weight with this inflation data.

Gold's story this week was remarkable not only for its price but also for what it conveyed. The price per ounce spent the week in the approximately $4,790-$4,840 range, closing with its fourth weekly increase. Three different forces were at work simultaneously: central bank purchases (China's 17th consecutive month of reserve increases), a weakening dollar, and a geopolitical premium fueled by concerns that "the ceasefire may not be permanent." In this triple support environment, neither ceasefire news is sharply dragging the price down, nor is news of a collapse instantly propelling it to a new high; gold has now become an asset simultaneously pricing in both peace and war scenarios.

Last week both clarified and blurred the corridor leading up to April 22nd. What is clear is that the parties need to sit down at the table by next week at the latest to extend the ceasefire. Pakistan's mediation continues, and indirect channels are open. The Strait of Hormuz is officially open during the ceasefire, but the US naval blockade continues; 9 ships were turned back this week. What is unclear is the increasingly complex economic picture: inflation is soaring in the US while the Fed is under pressure. Oil is hovering around the $100 mark. Gold is up for the fourth consecutive week.

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