Commodity markets generally experience minor fluctuations during US election periods. Historically, the Bloomberg Commodity Index has shown slight declines in the pre-election period, while increases were experienced in Trump's terms and losses in Biden's terms according to the election results. On average, October, November and December have generally been on a downward trend. Non-farm employment in the US increased by 12,000 in October, below expectations. The unemployment rate was 4.1 percent; strikes and hurricanes were effective. Average hourly earnings increased by 4 percent annually. Core personal consumption expenditure data in the US remained stable at 2.7%, above expectations of 2.6%.
There are major differences between the two presidential candidates before the US elections. These differences will cause changes especially in foreign policy and economics. In other words, 2025 will be important in terms of the direction of war and economic crises. While Trump focuses on the Russia-Ukraine war, Harris will focus on the process in Israel. While Trump is obsessed with Iran and China, Harris is expected to find a solution to Israel's massacre in Palestine. While Trump says strong dollar and crypto, Harris prefers a softer policy. On one side is war, on the other is economy. I am not optimistic about either issue. They will neither end the war nor recover the economy. In fact, I expect a more deadlocked result.
The dollar index (dxy) is above 104 and is making its final shows. It may probably want to try 104.70-104.90 for the last time. Don't be surprised if you see a dollar index falling below 100 towards the end of the year. I am talking about 97-95-92 levels.
The euro/dollar parity estimates before the US elections are as follows: BBVA estimated 1.08 for the fourth quarter; Prestige Economic LLC estimated 1.11. Rabobank, XTB and Wells Fargo expect the parity to strengthen against the euro next year and expect it to be at 1.08, 1.06 and 1.02 levels. Commerzbank, on the other hand, predicts it will remain stable at 1.09. Apple’s revenue increased by 6 percent to $94.9 billion in the July-September period, while its net profit fell by 35.8 percent to $14.7 billion. The tax case in Ireland played a role in the decline in profits. Sales of iPhones, iPads and Macs increased during this period.
Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) delighted investors by reporting strong third-quarter results, while Microsoft (MSFT) announced pessimistic forecasts and Apple (AAPL) was hit by weak profits. Intel (INTC) announced that it will invest more than $28 billion to build two new chip factories in Ohio to expand its contract manufacturing business. Google is developing an artificial intelligence system called “Project Jarvis” that can perform tasks such as research, shopping and flight booking on behalf of users. Twelve Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) traded in the US saw net inflows of $870 million at the beginning of the week, recording the largest daily volume since the first week of June. Delta Air Lines (DAL) filed a lawsuit against cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) in Georgia state court over the global outage that affected 1.3 million customers in July.
Paycom Soft (PAYC) shares gained 27.10% during the week after the company reported better-than-expected revenue and profit on its balance sheet. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares lost 44.98% during the week after independent auditing firm E&Y terminated its auditing firm after finding the company’s financials manipulative.
Seaport Research upgraded Alphabet (GOOGL) from “NEUTRAL” to “BUY” and set a 12-month average target price of $200. JMP Securities raised the 12-month average target price of Reddit (RDDT), which it follows with an “OUTPERFORMING SECTOR” rating, to $118 from $84. TD Cowen raised the 12-month average target price of Visa (V) from $318 to $325 and maintained its “BUY” rating. Daiwa raised the 12-month average target price of GE Vernova (GEV) from $245 to $336 and its “BUY” rating to “HIGH PORTFOLIO WEIGHT”.
China’s manufacturing PMI rose above the threshold for the first time since April at 50.1 in October, signaling growth. Despite the economic slowdown, non-manufacturing PMI also rose to 50.2. Optimism is maintained due to the impact of the stimulus packages.
Gold per ounce exceeded $2,782, reaching an all-time high. Now, the dollar index is rising together with gold. They want to give a strong dollar message. But the message will not work. Their only solution is to operate on gold, to pull it down by at least 200 dollars. To give investors the message, “We will not allow gold while there is a dollar.” Can they give such a message after the elections? Yes, I am waiting. Whoever the new president is, the first message they will give to the markets is “Strong dollar.” The arrow has left the bow, the dollar will not be a reserve currency that the world will prefer.
Monday Constellation Energy (CEG) Balance Sheet, Palantir (PLTR) Balance Sheet will be released. Tuesday US Presidential Election, US Utilities PMI, Super Micro (SMCI) Balance Sheet, Devon Energy (DVN) Balance Sheet will be released. Wednesday Novo Nordisk (NVO) Balance Sheet, CVS Health (CVS) Balance Sheet, Arm Holding (ARM) Balance Sheet, Qualcomm (QCOM) Balance Sheet will be released. Thursday Fed Interest Rate Decision, Vistra Energy (VST) Balance Sheet, Moderna (MRNA) Balance Sheet, Barrick Gold (GOLD) Balance Sheet, Block (SQ) Balance Sheet, Rivian (RIVN) Balance Sheet, Unity (U) Balance Sheet will be released. Friday Fluor (FLR) Balance Sheet will be released.
The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.
