The money is leaving America and going to Europe and China. This is an interesting situation that we have not seen for years. Germany is going into huge debt, and is going into monetary loosening. But this is not only happening in Germany, it is actually happening all over Europe right now. On the other hand, China is doing many things very right these days and because of these, the money is leaving the American stock exchanges and flying to China and Europe. Especially to Germany. Since the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 has fallen by 2.28%. The Nasdaq 100 has fallen by 4.5%. On the other hand, in European stocks, France has risen by 15.47% since the beginning of the year. Despite its very bad economy, the UK has gained 9.88%. Germany has increased by 21.28%, and China has increased by 20.64%. This is the exact opposite of the figures experienced until previous years. Europe and China would fall no matter what. America would rise no matter what. Now, there is a big change here. Among the main reasons for this change is the role of Trump's policies on the one hand. Trump's policies seem like they will cause America even more pain in the short term, even if he does the right things in the long term.

On the other hand, the exact opposite of what Trump did is happening in China and Europe. For example, while Trump is introducing tariffs, China is lifting tariffs with all countries. Frankly, it is not that difficult for China. Because it is already a country with a foreign trade surplus. While America is trying to reduce the money it prints and saves, the Germans are increasing the money printing. Both because of fears of war, to invest in infrastructure and of course to grow the economy. Thus, money is coming from here and going there. Then there are those on the technology side. For example, Ali Baba announced a new artificial intelligence model on Thursday. If the claims are true, they can get higher efficiency in artificial intelligence despite the lower number of parameters, and when this is combined with the previous Deepseek news, it creates a mood like "Why should we stick to America's expensive stocks, the Chinese are also producing technology?". This is what has been happening for at least the last week. Because on Thursday, for example, there was not much extra bad news flow regarding the American markets. Despite that, the hard sell continued.

I will comment on all of these today. When can this sell-off stop in America? I will focus on what kind of effects Trump's policies are having. But I will not be content with that, we will make a wide tour where I will also touch on personal development. Because company news continues to flow. For example, Broadcom brought a great balance sheet on Thursday, it rose super high. The declines continued on Thursday, S&P 500 fell by 1.78%, Dow Jones by 1.06, Nasdaq by 2.75%, mid caps by 1.58%, small caps by 1.28%, micro caps by 1.83%. Of course, Nvidia had a big share in this sharp decline of Nasdaq. Nvidia also fell sharply again. When we look at the sectors, the toilet paper sector and consumer products were again saved from the massacre on Thursday. Also, the energy side was a little green, everything else was red and the indexes reached very critical places on Thursday. Nasdaq is going in a dangerous place, below the 200-day moving average, while S&P 500 is right on the edge. So technically things are a bit wonky.

When we look at futures, the situation seems a bit positive, but they do this and then sell. Frankly, as long as we don't pull VIX below 20, the risks continue. On the other hand, when we look at the news that came on Thursday, challenger job cuts came. This is an index calculated like this; they look at how many people companies will lay off. In other words, companies announce this, for example, there are serious layoffs at Intel and Meta lately. When you look at it that way, the number came to 172,000, the expectation was around 70,000. It was 49,795, again much higher than the previous month. This is of course bad, but then unemployment claims came, there is a decline there. While it was 234,000 the previous week, new unemployment claims came to 221,000 this time. Frankly, it is a bit confusing. The reason for this could be in several ways.

First, companies have said they will lay off people but haven't done so yet. The state also has a share in that, by the way. Of these 172,000, about 30,000 will be layoffs from the state. But those layoffs probably haven't happened yet. They will happen in the coming weeks and months. But the announcement has been made. Second, maybe some of those who were laid off are still finding jobs relatively easily. But all of this is actually noise, and the reason for all this noise is Donald Trump's strategies on customs tariffs. When we look at the Wall Street Journal, for example, almost the entire cover is devoted to Trump's customs tariffs. What is tiring the market is very simple: as of Thursday, Trump postponed the customs tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Then he said that they would not apply customs tariffs on certain items coming from Mexico and Canada. The day before, America's Trade Minister said that we can reach an agreement with Canada and Mexico in the middle.

But on Thursday, Treasury Minister Bessent said very harsh words about the Canadian prime minister that I don't want to express here, and said it is not possible to reach an agreement with him. There is such fluctuation all the time, so it is not clear what will happen. Of course, this scares the market. Because you have to look at it very simply. Let's say you are a retailer, a ship from China is carrying your goods, the goods are on their way to you with a truck from Canada. How will you price this? Because is there a customs tariff or not, what percentage will it be, how much will it be for each item? These are not clear. When these are not clear, people become unable to act. When they become unable to act, they get scared. When they are scared, they postpone decisions. Delaying decisions can already turn into an element that creates economic contraction. This has not yet been reflected in employment, except for the public sector. As you know, there is already a Doge project in the public sector, but it may be reflected in the future. Because in indecision, you will eventually see where you can cut costs, laying off workers may be one of the ways to do this. This is the issue that wears out the markets, otherwise if the tariffs are clear once, even if they are very high, the markets and companies will find a way. But when there is uncertainty, no one knows what to do. This can gradually cause companies to become unable to do business. There were quite a few statements about this on Thursday.

This is the annoying part of the matter, I also don't find Trump's tariff policy very wrong, I understand it. Because America has a huge foreign trade deficit. There needs to be a way to compensate for this, plus maybe it will reduce the corporate tax domestically thanks to the tariffs. I have always stated these before. That's why I 100% think it is the right policy in the long run. But the way Trump manages this and all this back and forth, for example, on Thursday, Canada and Mexico were postponed regarding the tariffs, but until April 2. In other words, what will change until April 2, for example, will the automobile companies establish a supply chain in the automobile sector by April 2? In other words, this is the part of Trump that tires the markets, but Trump may be doing these things consciously. Because as I mentioned before, Trump doesn't want the markets to do well, he is happy if the markets fall a little. This is where the fear is, while Trump is doing these things, Germany and China are doing the exact opposite. There, they are printing money on the one hand, and on the other hand, they are eliminating customs tariffs and establishing new commercial partnerships. Therefore, money is flowing from here to there and there is such a money transfer between the indices. What should be done here?

You can research those stock exchanges, invest in them. You can escape to safe havens or you can say that this will improve temporarily. I think it will improve temporarily, but it has become quite difficult to predict when it will improve and how much damage the stock exchanges will take until that point. Fortunately, not everything is going badly. Broadcom's balance sheet came on Thursday. Broadcom was not in my portfolio, but I am thinking of adding it after the balance sheet that came on Thursday. I have a section called artificial intelligence infrastructure, I have a theme. The section related to artificial intelligence infrastructure, which includes stocks like Nvidia. The section that has suffered the most damage since the beginning of the year is the truth. But Broadcom's balance sheet on Thursday shows that the AI ​​game is still going full throttle. The company made a turnover of $14.9 billion, well above expectations. Net profit was $5.5 billion, exactly four times more than last year. They say they will sell around $4.4 billion worth of AI microchips for the next quarter. They exceeded their targets again here. Earnings per share were also above expectations. Everything is going well here. The stock rose by 18% when the balance sheet came after the close, then fell a little more but is still strong and Broadcom says that developments, especially in the AI ​​side, show us that there is very high demand. The demand from the big companies we call Hyper Scalers is also going full throttle. Broadcom chips are seen by some as rivals to Nvidia's chips.

Some say that Broadcom and Nvidia are needed in companies. They use both. Unfortunately, after Broadcom's huge balance sheet on Thursday, Nvidia did not compensate for the losses. But Broadcom really threw some cool water on the problems in the world of artificial intelligence on Thursday. When I went to Bloomberg, it said that Nasdaq has now reached the correction zone. I only call 10% pullbacks in Nasdaq or S&P 500 a pullback. In other words, I don't even take it seriously. Pullbacks between 10% and 20% are called corrections. They say that 10% - 20% correction is the correction zone. I start to get a little scared there. If it goes above 20%, the pullback is at its peak, then we will have entered a bear market. Nasdaq approached the 10% limit on Thursday, but it didn't quite get there. It stayed somewhere around 9.7 - 9.8%, but it is about to fall into the correction zone. The pullback from the peak in S&P 500 is around 7%. So I am not timid there yet. But on the other hand, 200-day averages are important, Nasdaq has broken it. Russell has also broken it. There is such a problem technically.

Now you will say, do people act technically? Yes, algorithms can act like that. When it falls below 200 days, algorithms are colder towards stocks. Especially as an individual investor, if a company I believe in is below 200 days, I can see it as an opportunity. But algorithms do not see it that way, so we are hanging around there a little longer. It would be great if we could turn upwards from there. Technically, there is roughly such an image. When I look at Barrons, Costco is talking about its balance sheet. Costco brought in a bad balance sheet. Or rather, it fell slightly below expectations. Costco is one of the most beloved retailers of Americans. Or rather, you do wholesale shopping with large baskets. On Thursday, it brought in a turnover slightly below expectations, and the stock fell. This was also bad news about the state of the American consumer.

When I went to Marketwatch, there was a news story from Intuitive Machines, which I have a small investment in. This company is really trying to travel to the moon. But they had a failed mission on Thursday. They launched the device and then lost it, etc. Because of this, it fell by about 20% during the session, and then it fell another 28% after the session. Space is something like that, it finished the day with a pullback of about 50%. This happens to all space stocks. So if you are investing in space, you need to think about this. For example, a Spacex missile exploded in the air on Thursday. There is not much good news from Elon Musk these days. If it were public, Spacex stocks would have fallen sharply on Thursday. So this is a game, keep that in mind if you are investing in space.

There is a news story on CNBC about an ETF, a German ETF. Many analysts believe that the German stock market will rise for many years. The reason is that Germany is starting to print money. When you print money, stocks go up. One reason for this is partly inflationary. You know, there is more money, the number of stocks is the same, some money flows there. Also, it is thought that when you print money, companies' businesses will improve. We have been experiencing this in America for years. America is currently experiencing the exact opposite. In this context, they suggested an ETF. This is not my suggestion, I do not give investment advice. I am sharing the article with you.

If you are wondering how to invest in Germany, iShare MSCI Germany ETF (EWG) if you believe that the German stock market will do well. Will the German stock market do well? I think these money printing stories are nice, of course, they will push the German stock market up, but there is one issue. The tariffs that the United States will apply to Europe and Germany are not yet clear. I think there may be a pullback there. You can expect that pullback, but the upcoming period is a period when Germany will act a bit like America and print more money.

When we go to Tipranks, they talk a lot about Elon Musk. Thursday's space test failed, he says. On the other hand, Tesla stock fell by another 5% on Thursday. I have to say that it fell more than I expected. I had already predicted Tesla's downward movement. Because it brought a very bad balance sheet. Although the stock went up from there, it ultimately cannot resist gravity. There is news from various countries about Tesla's vehicle sales falling. Some of this is definitely related to Elon Musk's political stance, and some of it is a model change, as you know. But I did not invest in Tesla for this reason. The reason I invested in Tesla was autonomous driving. I still hold it within that framework, but many people here say leave Tesla.

And some personal development advice. As you know, artificial intelligence is the most important technology that is changing the world right now, and there are good YouTube channels about following artificial intelligence. One of them is Matt Wolfe. Matt Wolfe makes a couple of videos a week and explains all the developments in the artificial intelligence ecosystem very well. He is one of the YouTubers I follow regularly to understand what is going on in the world of artificial intelligence.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.