American stock markets and crypto exchanges are in fear. We know this from CNN's data, fear shows it. You can easily find it on CNN's website. Here, it shows us the mood of American investors every day. We have just moved from extreme fear to fear, but there is still fear. So why is there so much fear? What developments have frightened the market that caused such sharp declines? What do I see in the background of that development and what are my predictions and forecasts about the stock market for the coming days, I will share all of these. On the other hand, I want to help you with personal development.

First, let's take a quick look at the markets. We had declines in small stocks as usual. If you ask which area the declines came from the most, they came from the technology area. They have taken everything related to artificial intelligence to the ground badly, I will talk about the reason a little later. Also, consumer discretionary, that is, non-essential consumer spending, including automobiles, has been massacred again. However, we cannot say that the market as a whole has fallen. There are also sectors that are positive, for example, the toilet paper sector was quite positive again. Fundamental materials were positive, energy was positive, real estate was positive. So there is no such total collapse, there is a collapse specific to two sectors. Because news came about these two sectors. But I want to start today's article by talking a little bit about Bitcoin.

I always have a hard time understanding why Bitcoin is not rising. I am aware that this has a lot to do with liquidity. We are heading towards a period where liquidity is abundant again in America. In fact, the FED had said in its last meeting that they would slow down monetary tightening to a serious extent. I think this is slowly turning into monetary expansion. In this context, Kyle Chasse's channel is also a good channel. He hosted Arthur Hayes on his latest podcast. Arthur Hayes is someone I really like, I also follow his articles on Medium. He has been writing about the crypto market for many years, he is a technology developer, and also an investor. Be sure to watch this video. Arthur Hayes explains here why the Fed has actually already started monetary expansion and says that yes, Bitcoin may pull back to 76,000 in the coming period, these are possible movements in the short term, but the direction is upward. I largely agree with Arthur Hayes' view. I definitely recommend you to watch the video.

Now let's come to why the markets were afraid. First of all, of course, they were afraid of Donald Trump. Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on automobiles. This tariff was imposed on all automobiles manufactured outside of America. In the meantime, things are a bit hazy regarding automobiles assembled in America or partially manufactured in America. Because of course, not all parts of any automobile are manufactured in America. Tesla is one of the brands closest to full production in America, by the way. It is also useful to say that, but even Tesla's CEO Elon Musk made such a statement. He said that we are also bringing parts from abroad. This tariff will probably be fully applied to cars imported directly from abroad.

50% of passenger vehicles in America are directly imported. This tariff will be reflected on the domestic ones according to the local content rate. Trump said he would make this statement before the market closed. He made the statement after the market closed, thus contributing to the decline of the market. Of course, this affected not only the American markets but also the European markets. One of the products that Europe sells the most to America is the automobile. By the way, I do not find this tariff war between Europe and America very smart. Because Europe sells extremely low-profit-margin automobiles to America. America, on the other hand, offers very high-profit-margin digital services to Europe, in fact, software services such as social media platforms. In other words, if Europe were to impose a similar tariff, who would be harmed more is a somewhat debatable issue. But Trump continues like this and says he will pull production back to America. This may also have positive results, unexpected results, perhaps.

Bloomberg, for example, says that Japan cannot raise interest rates for this reason. The Japanese Central Bank cannot make such a decision. Because the restrictions on automobile exports will already cause a significant slowdown. This is pleasing because, as you know, many of us were afraid that if the Japanese increased interest rates, there would be a rapid outflow of money from American stocks to Japan, or a carry trade scandal similar to the one on August 5. You know, there may be some interesting positive results like this. Trump also announced customs tariffs but postponed the implementation until April 3. As you know, he will announce all customs tariffs on April 2. He also postponed the implementation until April 3. I think there is still some room for bargaining there. In fact, the statements from both Europe and Japan said that the negotiations were continuing. This is Trump's method, it is really tiring but somehow it yields results, this happened on the automobile side.

So what happened with microchips? Again, of course, our problem is that Nvidia was the most valuable company in the world for a while. Later, it was passed by Apple again and fell to second place. It has recently fallen to the third most valuable company in the world, passing Microsoft. If I am not mistaken, since the peak, it has also lost value from $150 to around $115-116, and some Nvidia investors are in great panic. Because there is a 6% sell-off in the stock. The first news that fell came from China. It seems that there may be some restrictions on the import of Nvidia H20 microchips. China says that these chips consume too much energy, we can prefer Huawei's chips, which we produce ourselves. To me, this seems like a part of the bargaining again.

Before April 2, America and China were showing their muscles to each other. This law, this regulation has always existed. It had not been implemented until now, now it is suddenly coming to the fore. This was the first reason for fear. The second reason for fear was that a report was published about Microsoft. Actually, this is old information, I think I shared it with you before that Microsoft had given up on some data center investments, together with Open AI. This is probably a shrinkage in artificial intelligence data centers. It created concerns in the markets as if there was a contraction in chips. However, when you read the entire news, you see that Meta and Google have immediately jumped on the data centers that Microsoft has abandoned. In other words, it is not a problem that is spreading to a general sector here, but it is Microsoft's own strategy, but the market used this as an excuse for the decline.

And of course, Trump did not sit still again. Trump also imposed restrictions on technology exports to some companies in China. There is no issue that concerns Nvidia there, as far as I read here. But he added to the market's fear. While all this was happening and investors were shaking in fear, there was another development. Open AI is receiving $40 billion in investment, with a valuation of $300 billion, and this will most likely happen. Open AI says that on the one hand, we expect a turnover of around $12.7 billion in 2025, more than 3 times the 3.7 billion in 2024. We will move towards 29.4 billion in 2026. We had announced a loss of $5 billion in 2024, but this issue will be resolved in 2026.

Now, as you know, they are launching new artificial intelligence agents. Their prices will be around $20,000 in monthly subscriptions. They are especially planned to be sold to large institutions or large projects. On the other hand, they made an $11.9 billion deal with CoreWeave, which is also a company that is just going public. From there, they will increase their focus on R&D. So there are two separate worlds here. On the one hand, there are those who are worried and wondering if the demand for microchips will decrease, what will happen next quarter. On the other hand, brave people are investing like crazy in Open AI.

By the way, chat GPT's new visual preparation technology was shown. I haven't used it yet, those who use it are very fans. Google's Gemini 2.5 is out, those who use it are also fans. Alibaba has released a new artificial intelligence platform, those who use it are also fans. So technology is developing like crazy here, but only 10% of companies in America are using artificial intelligence. But the demand for our microchips will decrease. The market is worried like this, you will make your own decision.

Frankly, as an investor, if my investment thesis is correct in the long term, I see these places as a good opportunity to collect and grow positions. Because not only microchip companies, but everything related to data centers has fallen hard. I like those prices. Of course, they can go back even further, but when I look 5 years later, I think we will laugh at this news in a world where artificial intelligence is much more effective. Of course, I could be wrong, what I am telling you is not investment advice.

Robin Hood is normally a platform where you buy and sell stocks, buy and sell crypto. Robin Hood is slowly trying to enter banking and consulting. It says it will provide consulting to citizens with artificial intelligence. It says it will provide some banking services. I think the company is becoming more and more interesting. The stock fell by 7.10%. Especially the young generation in America loves Robin Hood. I have Sofi in my portfolio as an alternative to Robin Hood. I would not consider Robin Hood instead of Sofi, but it seems like I might consider Robin Hood.

A great article was published on Medium, "Every QUANTUM Physics Concept Explained in Five Sentences". I read it, they explained extremely complicated topics such as Quantum Entanglement with super sweet, real-life examples. I really liked the article.

Finally, a very interesting article was published in Morning Star. There are many such deep analyses in Morning Star. An article by someone named Larry Swedroe. Can American Exceptionalism Be Sustained? As you know, American stocks have much higher price-earnings ratios than their European and Chinese competitors. The gap has closed a little bit now, but the gap is still very wide. This is called American exceptionalism. In other words, it is called the American market being unique. Larry Swedroe questions this a lot and ultimately reaches the following point: He says it is unsustainable. Because yes, the profitability growth of American companies is much stronger than the rest of the world. However, the company value increases are well above the profitability growth. This shows that the stock market is a bit stylish, he says.

There are a lot of articles of this type published lately. Because Wall Street is trying to convince us to leave America and invest in Europe and China these days. I did a little, I don't like to fight the main trend and I want to be a part of the trend that goes there. But I still think that the best companies in the world are in America. I can't find such companies in Europe. I look for them in China, yes, but China has its own risks. That's why I allocate a small portion of my portfolio to those places. Maybe I'm making a mistake, time will tell. But the article is really an interesting one.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.