Tesla's third-quarter sales figures were announced on Wednesday. The stock market did not like it at all, the stock pulled back sharply. First of all, the numbers that came in were 462,890 vehicles sold. Whether this was below or above Wall Street expectations is a debatable issue. Because it was above the expectations of a large consensus pool of 55 analysts. Sales were expected to be over 461,000 there. On the other hand, it was slightly below the expectations of another consensus pool of 11 analysts, where 463,000 were expected. According to rumors, it was said that it could exceed 465,000. Frankly, I was expecting over 465,000. It was slightly below my expectations, but the stock really took a heavy beating against this result and at one point the stock lost as much as $15. Then it recovered a little and finished the day with a loss of $9. However, these daily movements are not very important or the price movement on Wednesday may not be very valuable. Because Tesla has been rising rapidly since August 5. There were those who were already looking for an excuse to take some profit. And as you know, stock markets tend to be a little unpleasant in October. There may have been a sale related to that. This is not very important for us, but what will happen on October 10 is very, very important.

Because October 10 will be the day Tesla calls We Robot and Tesla will announce its latest status regarding autonomous vehicles and give us details on how the autonomous taxi fleet will operate. That day is really very critical. Because Wednesday's price movement shows us that if the market evaluates Tesla as an automobile company, the value may really go down. Because when we look at it only as an automobile company, it has a mediocre profit margin, yes, it is more successful than other automobile companies. Because when we look at Wednesday's numbers, Tesla has achieved around 6% growth compared to the same quarter last year. However, when we look at Toyota, for example, there is a 4% decrease compared to last year in the world's largest automobile manufacturer. Again, when we look at Volkswagen, its CEO said that if we do not pull ourselves together in 2 years, we may go bankrupt.

So there is a big problem in the automobile sector in general. Tesla is at least growing according to them. But no matter what, its valuation is too high as an automobile company. That's why everything is coming, it depends on what Elon Musk will announce on October 10th. He will explain how the autonomous taxi business will work. Tesla drivers are currently using the 12.5 version of fully autonomous driving. The reports that come are positive, we always hear that Tesla solves more complex, more difficult problems, and especially in complex situations in city traffic, Tesla comes out better. But no one says Tesla is fully ready for fully autonomous driving. Moreover, some other changes are needed in Tesla for a fully autonomous taxi fleet. Here are the things like whether the passenger left the door open, smoked inside, paid, forgot something. In other words, the interior of the vehicle needs to be seen very clearly.

Also, a software similar to Uber needs to be integrated into the system in terms of how to meet the passenger and where to drop the passenger off. We will hear about Tesla's status on October 10th. Elon Musk is very ambitious in his preparations. This time, they hired a Hollywood studio and they will make this presentation in that studio. Tesla presentations are usually a bit mediocre and the stock always tends to fall. But this time, we see that they are very well prepared. On that day, we need to learn when our autonomous taxis will be on the road. We need to hear how the legal processes are progressing in this regard. As far as we know, there is no application yet. As you know, there are places in America where Google's Waymo operates its autonomous driving. At least, it could apply there. In other words, it could apply for operation in the geographically restricted area we call geofence. We know that it has not done this yet.

We do not know how much these vehicles will cost. We do not know what their type will be. What kind of service it will be. For example, we do not know whether companies like Uber will buy these vehicles and provide the service themselves or whether Tesla will provide it itself. We do not know how much money these vehicles will spend per mile. We do not know how these vehicles will be maintained and cleaned. Because they are going for a service that goes far beyond selling vehicles and we know from Google's Waymo that this is a very difficult service. We will hear all of this on that day. According to another rumor, Tesla may also be telling us about its cheap cars that day. Because the vehicles developed for this robotaxi will probably also be Tesla's new cheap version vehicles. But I don't expect much detail on that day. Because if they don't put those vehicles on sale right away, the statements they make about those vehicles could hurt the sales of current Tesla models.

If they are really very economical cars, we will see that. Of course, we know that the car will be a two-seater car according to the clues we have seen so far. We expect its type to be something a little closer to the Cybertruck. Maybe they will explain it easily for this reason. Because they say that Model 3 and Model Y customers will not come to this vehicle. But we will see that on that day, and if things go well that day, it is good news for the stock. But there is a possibility that things will go badly. Because our biggest problem with Elon Musk is; he promises, but he fulfills his promises very late. He eventually fulfills them, but he fulfills them very late, and if he does not say very concrete things on that day, this comes into play on this date in this city. If he does not say very concrete things with all the specific details solved, such as we will start shipping this cheap car on this date, the market may evaluate this as another Elon Musk gas cloud.

If I liked the sales figures on Wednesday, there is something I did not like there. It is useful to mention that too. There are model S, model X and Cybertruck in the place we call other models and when we look at the number, 22915 seems a little bit low to me. Yes, the production of Cybertruck is just ramping up. But I would still expect a slightly more positive number here. What is probably happening is; those who will buy expensive Teslas like model S or model X may be saying that they can buy a Cybertruck for the same price, it is cooler. So it might be good to hear something about the developments in Cybertruck that day. By the way, the autonomous driving feature has just arrived in Cybertruck, it was not there before. Apart from that, if we look at it as an automobile company, Tesla is on a good track. But as I said, it is not worth this value just as an automobile company.

Therefore, if you are a Tesla investor, you need to enter October 10th very carefully. It is possible for the stock to skyrocket from there, or it is possible for it to go down very sharply. Because I repeat, this is an expensive stock. We have been saying this for a long time and if there is autonomous driver, maybe they will also talk about humanoid robots that day, we do not know. Because he said We Robot Day. If he doesn't say concrete things that convince people and go beyond being such a vision, I think they will take the stock down a lot. On the other hand, some analysts say that Tesla will announce jaw-dropping new technologies that day. Technologies that are not in current vehicles and things we can't imagine right now. I don't know, but even if he announces such crazy things, he still needs to tie them to a condition, a cost, a price, a business plan.

I'm worried, I can't say I'm super comfortable, to be honest. But I come from lower average costs. I also know how to hedge my portfolio. In other words, when entering such a day, I can hedge my portfolio in case that day goes very wrong. Therefore, of course I will enter Tesla long that day. Because I don't enter a day that we've been waiting for years by buying Tesla. But I've experienced many disappointments like this in Tesla before. For example, we entered the Cybertruck presentation day with great excitement. After that, the stock experienced a big sell-off, and this time the sell-off may not just be the sale of a model being liked or not. This time the sale is the day to decide whether Tesla is a real AI autonomous driving company or not. That's why there was a movie called The Judgement Day, if you remember, it really is that day.

I see it as a day when the market will finally make a big decision about Tesla. I hope it will go up, but there is also a possibility that it will go down. Frankly, it's a bit like flipping a coin. Because of course we don't know the developments within Tesla. If we look at the developments in Tesla vehicles right now, there may be a bit of disappointment. Because it is clear that these vehicles are not ready for fully autonomous driving yet. But will they tell us brand new things that day, why did they call that day We Robot? Will what they do in Hollywood studios just be a pump-up event or will we try concrete things that are down to earth? All of them are critical, and the elections are approaching, by the way. You can also see how Elon Musk stands next to Trump. If Trump loses, he will be in trouble. Because he took a very clear position this time. He himself said that if Kamala Harris wins, we will be faced with more difficulties than the ones we have faced today. If you are a Tesla investor, you need to know all this.

In summary, Tesla is doing well as a car company. But it is an overpriced stock no matter what. I am sure that electric cars will be the winner of the future. But even if Tesla is its only winner, these valuations will not make sense. We definitely need to hear very good things about artificial intelligence, autonomous driving and maybe humanoid robots, and if we do not hear these on October 10, we can say that bad days are waiting for the stock, if we do, we can say that better days are waiting for the stock. Take your positions accordingly. It may not be necessary to be completely all in or all out.

More intermediate positions can be considered. I do not give investment advice on this subject. Because I do not know what will happen, but let me tell you my own position again, I am entering long. But I am also hedging myself. I can also trade during the day. I will try to get through that day without losing my position size by doing a lot of things. Because I believe that even if bad things happen on October 10, that is, if Wall Street is a little disappointed and they sell stocks for a reason like selling the news, I think Elon Musk will eventually succeed in this.

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