From the Strait of Hormuz to Malacca, from Istanbul to the Arctic, the balance of power is being reshaped on a new global chessboard. The greatest geopolitical struggle of the 21st century is not actually taking place on land, but in sea passages. These passages are the arteries of the global economy. And today, all of these arteries are under pressure. In 1941, Winston Churchill said: "The fate of empires is sometimes written in the waterways a few miles wide." Technology has changed, trade has changed, globalization has changed. But the fate of the world is still being written in the straits. Throughout history, those who controlled trade became rich, and those who controlled trade routes gained power.
A significant portion of the geopolitical tensions we experience today is a struggle to control sea routes, straits, and strategic passages. In the 19th century, the power of the British Empire came from its navy. In the 20th century, the US applied the same model on a larger scale. However, today the world is in the midst of a new upheaval. The US, which after World War II accounted for approximately 50% of world production, has now fallen to around 20%. In contrast, China has become the world's largest manufacturing hub. More importantly, it is said that today the world's largest merchant fleet belongs to China. The increasingly fierce competition between the US and China is not solely based on technology or trade wars, but also on control of maritime trade routes.
Approximately 80% of global trade, by volume, takes place by sea. In other words, almost everything, from the coffee on the supermarket shelf to the mobile phone, from the wheat on the table to the diesel fuel in the tractor, first loads onto a ship. Therefore, when sea routes are cut off, not only trade but also lifestyles change. Every commercial ship entering or leaving the Mediterranean must pass through Gibraltar. This narrow passage, located between Spain and Morocco and controlled by Britain, has attracted the attention of all major powers, from Rome to the Ottoman Empire, from Napoleon to the British Empire. Today, it remains one of the most important nodal points for European-African trade. Grain from the Black Sea is critically important for container trade in the Mediterranean and for Europe's energy flows.
The Suez Canal provides the shortest sea link between Europe and Asia. It is entirely under Egyptian control and is one of the largest sources of foreign exchange for the Egyptian economy. Approximately 12% of world trade passes through this canal. In 2021, the Ever Given ship, which ran aground in the Suez Canal, affected $400 billion worth of global trade due to the six-day blockage. Only one ship was stuck, but it was the world economy that was actually stuck.
Although not discussed as much as the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden and serves as the southern gateway to the Suez Canal, has become one of the most strategic points in recent years. Today, due to the conflict in Yemen and the attacks by the Iranian-backed Houthis, it has become one of the riskiest areas for global trade. Many shipping companies are forced to circumnavigate the southern tip of Africa instead of using this route. This means a longer route, more fuel, higher costs, and more expensive food. Therefore, Bab el-Mandeb is not only a military crisis point, but also an economic one.
Today, the world's most critical strait is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway located between Iran, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. Approximately one-fifth of the world's oil passes through this narrow corridor, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The recent resurgence of tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran has once again drawn investors' attention to Hormuz. Because Hormuz is no longer just about oil. Rising oil prices increase fertilizer costs, transportation expenses, make agricultural production more expensive, and accelerate food inflation. Today, an olive producer in the Aegean region and a soybean producer in Brazil are discussing the same problem: energy costs. Therefore, every crisis in Hormuz actually threatens the world's food security.
The Strait of Malacca, connecting the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, is one of the world's busiest trade corridors. Approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass through this route daily. The energy security of Asian giants such as China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan largely depends on Malacca. Therefore, the Beijing administration has long harbored a strategic concern known as the Malacca Dilemma. Closing this strait could mean suffocation for the Chinese economy. Perhaps this is one of the main reasons why China has invested billions of dollars in its Belt and Road Project over the last two decades. The Panama Canal carries approximately 5% of world trade. Under the Neutrality Treaty, the security and operation of the canal are in Panama's hands. In recent years, due to climate change and drought, water levels in the canal have been falling, and ship passages have been restricted. For the first time, world trade has faced the reality that not only wars, but also climate change can close trade routes.
The Danish Straits, consisting of the Øresund, Great Belt, and Little Belt straits, connect the Baltic Sea to the North Sea. A large portion of the foreign trade of Sweden, Finland, Poland, and the Baltic states passes through these corridors. Furthermore, Russia's Baltic ports are also dependent on this access. In the current climate of increased NATO-Russia tensions, the strategic importance of these straits has risen again. The Denmark Strait between Greenland and Iceland, though little known to the public, is of great importance to both NATO and Russia. It is one of the most critical passages from the Arctic Ocean to the Atlantic. With the melting of glaciers and the increased activity of the Northern Sea Route, the geostrategic importance of this region is further increasing.
The Bering Strait is the point where Russia and the US are closest to each other. Although it appears relatively calm today, its importance is rapidly increasing with the growth of Arctic trade. With the Northern Sea Route becoming even more active, the Bering Strait seems likely to be a major topic of discussion in the coming period. Both the international historical line and the border between two superpowers pass through the middle of the strait. Therefore, in the future, it could become a center not only for trade but also for a new power struggle.
Perhaps the greatest story of the future is being written here. Due to global warming, Arctic ice is melting rapidly. As a result, the Northern Sea Route, which runs along the Russian coast, is becoming increasingly accessible. Russia's nuclear icebreaker fleet is part of this strategy. The route from Shanghai to Rotterdam, using the Northern Sea Route instead of the Suez Canal, is approximately 30 percent shorter. For the first time in history, a sea route has the potential to bypass, at least partially, the Suez, Malacca, and Bab el-Mandeb canals. If this route becomes fully operational, the world trade map could be redrawn. Therefore, the developments in the Arctic today are not only an environmental issue, but also an economic one.
The element that unites all these straits is food. Without energy, the economy slows down, but without food, societies become unstable. While these corridors used to carry mostly oil, today they carry grain, fertilizer, vegetable oils, feed raw materials, agricultural commodities, and water. The closure of a strait can now lead not only to an energy crisis but also to a food crisis. Grain from the Black Sea, soybeans from Brazil, canola from Canada, wheat from Australia, and corn from Ukraine all reach our tables via these straits. Therefore, whoever controls the straits now controls not only energy but also food. Ports are now more important than cities, logistics corridors are more valuable than border lines, and straits may be more strategic than oil fields. Perhaps in the coming period, the focus will be less on the size of states and more on which trade corridor they are situated. Power is no longer about possessing natural resources, but about being able to deliver those resources to the world.
