Two years ago, Germany bid farewell to the era of nuclear power when all its reactors were decommissioned. China has built an average of one reactor per year since 2013, with 33 still under construction. When these are completed, China will have a total of 104 nuclear power plants. In other words, while the West destroys, China builds. Of the 66 reactors currently under construction worldwide, 33 are in China alone. Most of these are in industrially dense coastal areas. Beijing alone is building almost as many reactors as the rest of the world combined. India follows with 8. Russia has 7, South Korea and Turkey 4 each, Ukraine 3, and other countries like Bangladesh, Egypt, and Pakistan round out the list with 7. Inspired by American and French reactors, China began its reverse engineering journey, now attempting to build its own system. It has long overcome the problems that plagued the West for years, such as cost overruns and endless delays. Projects are not being suspended, and the schedule is always on track.
Everything is proceeding according to a specific plan. For example, some of its newly constructed reactors will utilize its own Hualong One technology. This technology can generate 10 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, meeting the annual energy needs of approximately 1 million people. Beijing's ultimate goal is to become a global nuclear energy supplier like the United States, Russia, France, and South Korea. Washington's concern is that building nuclear power plants abroad fosters deep relationships between countries that last for decades. In other words, if China gains dominance in this market, it could establish diplomatic and economic ties through nuclear exports that will last for decades.
According to Mark Hibbs, who wrote a book on China's nuclear program, "The Chinese are moving very, very quickly on this issue. They are extremely eager to show the world that their program is unstoppable." For example, according to a report by the China Nuclear Energy Association, by 2040, China will nearly double its nuclear capacity, becoming the world's largest nuclear energy producer. There are two main objectives behind this massive expansion plan. The first is the goal of decarbonization. China is currently the world's largest coal-burning country, single-handedly emitting one-third of global emissions. Nuclear energy is one of the most realistic ways to alleviate this enormous carbon burden. The second is energy stability. Production through solar and wind depends on weather conditions. Nuclear energy, on the other hand, can provide uninterrupted production day and night, summer and winter. If China continues at this pace, it will surpass even the United States in nuclear capacity by 2030. Its global rival, the United States, has built only two reactors since then. It has a total of 94. The rivalry between the two countries is limited only to trade, technology, and military power. Not.
The energy issue has become a new front in this struggle. For example, in the context of the trade wars, the US suspended export licenses for parts and equipment for nuclear power plants to China. During the Trump era, the US rose to prominence in oil, natural gas, and coal exports, becoming a major supplier of fossil fuels. Xi Jinping, however, has changed course completely during this period. He has become a clear world leader in the production of solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries. Beijing sees renewable energy as the trillion-dollar industry of the future. However, nuclear energy is the field that has resurfaced in the current period. As concerns about global warming and energy security increase, nuclear power plants have become attractive again. This is because these plants do not emit carbon, unlike coal and gas plants. Moreover, unlike wind or solar, they can generate uninterrupted power day and night. The US also has ambitions, but not to the same extent as China. While the Trump administration denies climate change, it aims to quadruple the country's nuclear capacity by 2050.
The goal is to both power data centers in the domestic market and develop next-generation reactor technologies that can be sold to developing countries. At this point, the situation is China has an advantage in the race because it completes reactors in about half the time and at a much lower cost than the West. The average Chinese nuclear reactor becomes operational in just five to six years. For example, a graph published in the scientific journal Nature shows that America and China's nuclear energy journeys are moving in opposite directions. In the 1970s, America pioneered nuclear power. But over the years, this leadership has given way to delays, cost crises, and endless construction. Today, every new reactor project is seen more as an economic nightmare than an engineering achievement. The graphs bear this out.
Since the 1960s, construction costs for American nuclear power plants have steadily increased. In recent projects, this figure has surpassed $15 per watt. The most concrete example of this is the Vogtle power plant in Georgia. Only two reactors have been completed so far. Construction took 11 years, with a total cost of $35 billion. During the same period, China followed a completely different path. Since the 2000s, it has nearly halved the cost per reactor and maintained this level. Keeping costs so low cannot be explained solely by cheap labor. For example, China has standardized its reactor designs, localized its supply chain, and simplified bureaucratic processes, effectively turning nuclear power plant construction into a mass production line.
So, what are the secrets behind this success? The starting point, of course, is government support. The country's three major nuclear companies are supported by government-funded, low-interest loans. Financing typically accounts for one-third of the total cost. This burden is spent on the interest on loans taken out for the project, financial guarantees, and long-term capital costs. This is where China has the advantage. The government both provides loans and guarantees these loans. Therefore, the interest costs are low, and there's no pressure to repay. This significantly reduces the overall cost of the project. Furthermore, China obligates power grid operators to purchase a portion of the electricity generated by nuclear power plants at predetermined, profitable prices. In other words, the government says, "This power plant won't have to find customers to sell the electricity it generates. You will buy that electricity at this price." This ensures the plant owner's income. Even if the price fluctuates, the risk of losses is eliminated. Another difference is the standardization of the architecture.
Chinese companies work on only a few reactor designs. They rebuild the same model in different locations. This makes the construction process more seamless each time. Thanks to the nationally set nuclear expansion target, Chinese companies can build plants with long-term plans and train their engineering staff on a permanent basis. According to David Fishman, an energy consultant with the Lantau Group, "China has extensive experience building massive projects, from dams to highways to high-speed trains; these project management skills can be transferred to the nuclear field." In the West, the situation was very different. Nuclear construction in the United States nearly ground to a halt in the 1970s and 1980s. During the 1970s energy crisis, great hopes were placed on nuclear energy, but several developments subsequently reversed this trend.
Rising interest rates during that period made it difficult to secure loans, making financing for multi-billion-dollar projects nearly impossible. A series of safety scandals during this period drew public criticism. The Three Mile Island accident in 1979 shattered the belief that nuclear energy was "safe." As public pressure grew, government and regulatory agencies tightened safety standards. This meant new reports, new permitting processes, and new delays for every project. Another major problem was the lack of standardization. Private companies attempted to try new designs for every project. In other words, each reactor was different from the last. Each new model required new engineering plans, new tests, and new approvals. This slowed down the process and made the costs unpredictable. So, given all this, can America catch up with China in nuclear reactor production? Both Republicans and Democrats now support nuclear energy. But unlike China, America is moving forward not with centralized planning, but relying on the innovation power of the private sector.
Technology giants like Google, Amazon, and Meta are investing in small, inexpensive nuclear reactors to meet the power needs of their data centers. However, these projects are still in the experimental phase and are not expected to be operational until the 2030s. While attempts to speed up the permitting process during the Trump administration have been controversial, this is because the relaxation of safety inspections is considered risky. Furthermore, America has largely lost the industrial infrastructure needed to manufacture large reactor components. In short, it is trying to play for the future with a large number of small and innovative reactors. China, on the other hand, is moving forward with a small but large, standardized, and rapidly constructed power plants. Experts believe America's problem is its overreliance on design and technological fantasies.
However, the real need is stable financing, strong infrastructure, and a clear state strategy. While China, America's rival, began its nuclear program with military objectives in the 1950s, civilian energy production also gained prominence after the 1980s. With its "learning state" model, it is one of the few countries to design its own reactors based on foreign technology. Now, it uses nuclear energy not only to meet its own energy needs but also to become the world's energy supplier. It has built six reactors in Pakistan, and new projects are in the pipeline in Africa and the Middle East. Another dimension of this ambition is its technological superiority. With its new reactors, which it calls "4th generation," China is developing multi-purpose systems that provide not only electricity but also heat and steam to industrial facilities. This model opens a new chapter in energy efficiency. It is also working on thorium reactors that will be less dependent on uranium and systems that reprocess spent nuclear fuel.
In other words, it is already seeking a solution to its long-term resource shortage. China is now progressing towards becoming a superpower that not only produces its own energy but also exports it. If America is not prepared, it could be a bystander in the future nuclear market.